(For the original June 11, 2016 post on LinkedIn, click here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xL15GdePWD_3nOJJT60nM4686gqq0yVU/view?usp=sharing )
Our initial 2016 Election Fully Adjusted Return Forecast indicates that Donald J. Trump will win the election for the Presidency of the United States. This follows from one sufficient and one necessary condition.
The sufficient condition: seventeen (17) Republican states have enacted laws restricting access to the voting booth, restrictions so onerous as to defy both common sense and the spirit of democratic governance. These laws guarantee that the people who would vote against Mr. Trump will be blocked from participating in the election. For example, to vote in the State of Texas, a gun permit suffices. A college ID does not. So it is in 17 of 50 US States.
Game.
The movement to block access to voting has been a long term effort, a reaction to the election of the first African American president. Rather than effectively fighting voter disenfranchisement, Democrats were convinced that this was a Black issue (Florida 2000, Ohio 2004), and therefore unworthy of serious consideration. It is now too late to do anything about this.
Democrats allowed themselves to be distracted by fabricated controversies, like the birther issue (promoted by one Donald J. Trump). Finally, having the nation's largest news channel bring forth an unprecedented level of misinformation (as in the birther issue above) aimed at the current President and the presumptive Democratic nominee served to create an atmosphere of mistrust. The financial crisis added to the level of dissatisfaction.
What this means is that Mr. Trump can insult Mexicans all he likes. He can insult Muslims, immigrants and members of other minority groups as well: they are not going to be able to vote.
Set.
Thus, Mr. Trump's behaviour is not accidental. This brings us to the necessary condition. Having blocked access to the polls, all that is required to push Mr. Trump into the White House is a surge in voting by biased, uneducated, low to moderate income white voters. This, the biggest demographic in the election, must be incentivized to participate. Mr. Trump's behaviour and language does so.
Trump will use Orlando as part of a fear based strategy to increase voter participation in his targeted demographic. He will use the economic chaos caused by Britain's vote on exiting the European Union to support his fear driven strategy. So long EU, hello Trump.
(We initially forecast that Britain would not exit the European Union, and the assassination of a female, liberal Member of Parliament lowers the chances they will leave, but their possible exit is part of the same violent, supremacist, chaos-inducing, "we want our country back" movement that is leading Trump to victory in the US. What every single "traditional" economist misses is this: the "movement" is not about rational economic decision making. It's about showing you are willing to pay the price required...to engage in bigotry and discrimination...)
Given the above, a Trump popular voting victory is assured. The Electoral College, the only votes that really matter, will be forced to follow.
Match.
Game. Set. Match.
Welcome, President Trump.