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Showing posts with the label black unemployment

Black People and COVID-19: Key Impacts.

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Black People and COVID-19 | Key Impacts A new national survey of African American small businesses was conducted by Washington, D.C.-based Creative Investment Research. The survey asked questions about the Paycheck Protection Program and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Emergency Advance (EIDL) Programs. The survey was intended to get a true pulse of how effective the lending programs have been. Sixty four percent (64%) of survey participants that said they applied for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), only 19% got funding. Even those receiving funding, however, got far less than what they asked for or expected. As survey respondents were predominantly Black businesses, this gives us some insight as to why unemployment is high and growing among Black Americans. What can Black people do immediately? Apply for the stimulus check of $1,200 - 100% probability rate of receiving; Apply for Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) - much lower probability rate of receiving PPP, on

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Need to be Coordinated Globally

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AT almost that three times the level reported in December, 2019, Friday's Black unemployment rate number is surprising and unfortunate, no matter what partisan policymakers and economists say. Remember, our expectation (and hope) was that fiscal and monetary policy actions would limit the initial damage. The Paycheck Protection and Economic Injury Disaster Loan programs certainly helped keep May's unemployment rate below 20%, but the numbers show that more focused fiscal and monetary policy actions, coordinated on a global level, are needed. In our comment on the Economic and Social Costs of "Reopening" America, we estimated that U.S. small businesses would need $6 trillion on an annual basis to ensure their survival through the coronavirus crisis. This was confirmed by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (See: https://twisri.blogspot.com/2020/04/economic-and-social-costs-of-reopening.html ). Unfortunately the unemployment numbers sho

HR 3441, the Save Local Business Act and Black Unemployment

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Eight years after the Great Recession, many in the country still struggle economically. While we continue to look forward positively with respect to the future, we need economic policy initiatives that promote growth and fuel our entrepreneurial spirit. Technology has allowed many more people to work for themselves and build economic security. This is even truer for the African American community, which has traditionally been locked out of opportunities in corporate America, but for whom, as the chart below shows, is starting to see some modest improvement. Economic independence is one key to our future. There are many pathways to achieving the American dream. Some of these pathways lead to entrepreneurship and to the use of empowering and flexible business models, such as franchising and the shared economy. Recent economic policy initiatives may serve to block the door to opportunity. Specifically, federal and state efforts to expand the definition of a “joint employer” beyo

Declining Black/White unemployment differential

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Our Fully Adjusted Return (tm) model predicted Black Unemployment would fall from 9.5% in June to 9.1% in July.  The forecast was confirmed this morning by the US Department of Labor - Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The difference between Black and White unemployment now stands at 4.5%. We note this is the second lowest differential of the Obama Presidency, surpassed only by a 4.0% differential in February, 2008. Our Fully Adjusted Return model shows that the difference is poised, assuming the Fed does not raise rates, to fall further. See:  http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm  

Fully Adjusted Return Forecast Early Yet Again...

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On April 2, 2015, we issued an unemployment rate forecast that stated, in part: "Our Fully Adjusted Return® Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 5.4% rate for March. Unemployment has been trending down since the beginning of 2009. The long term trend is declining, as the chart below shows. We see no reason for this to change. The only risk is that we may be a little early." As one outlet noted, "US employers added jobs at a solid pace in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 percent, a seven-year low." Today's rate release confirms our 4/2/15 forecast. The chart above shows the overall Unemployment Rate (Blue), the rate for African Americans (Brown) and the difference between the two. (Gray line, scale at right.) We think the level and the volatility of this difference is a key indicator of the overall social and economic health of the country. GDP On May 28th, we issued a Fully Adjusted Return® forecast for GDP that, simi

Commentary: Pen stroke could help ease black unemployment

From the Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/capitalbusiness/commentary-new-rule-could-help-ease-black-unemployment/2011/09/07/gIQA8XoqKK_story.html President Obama unveiled some ambitious ideas last week to create jobs, a plan that may have little chance of becoming reality any time soon given the $447 billion price tag and the current animus between the president and Congress. But about four weeks ago, Obama signed a little-publicized executive order that may go far in addressing a crisis exacerbated by the economic downturn: the rising unemployment rate and the diminishing wealth of African Americans. On Aug. 18, the White House issued an executive order “to promote the federal workplace as a model of equal opportunity, diversity and inclusion.” This follows on the heels of Section 342 of the Dodd-Frank financial reform law, which created offices to monitor and encourage efforts by federal financial agencies such as the Treasury Department

Unemployment in Black and White

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We created the chart at left showing black versus white unemployment in August, 2011. Black unemployment was reported at 16.7%, higher than the 16.2% rate reported in August 2010. Black unemployment was 15.5% in July, 2011. White unemployment fell to 8% in August from 8.1% in July, 2011. Further, white unemployment was 8.7% in August, 2010. I think this puts the recession into clear perspective. While some (the Tea Party in particular) have done a lot of whining, they are in no way, shape or form bearing the brunt of this recession.