Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from 2025

Global Economic Outlook: Should We Be Worried? Gabriel Philipp, Rohan Sivakumar

On July 10, 2025, Brookings’ “State of the Global Economy” panel gave a somewhat bleak picture of the world’s economic future. Global Projections:  The 2020s are projected to be one of the slowest decades for Global GDP growth in recent memory. There are several reasons, but this decline boils down to trade uncertainty and a rise in global conflict.  We are seeing a decrease in global GDP growth for the year 2025, with projections showing that GDP growth will drop from 2.8% to 1.4%. There was a consensus that we will see GDP growth stabilize in 2026, but it will not recover. Making the 2020s the slowest decade for GDP growth.   Countries are showing growing economic uncertainty as recent U.S. trade and tariff policies shift the global economic landscape. These changes have contributed to a slowdown in global trade growth, driven by increasing fragmentation and a lack of clarity around the U.S. approach trade going forward. As nations struggle to anticipate the direct...

Project 2025 and the Dangerous Assault on the Federal Reserve

The latest attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by Russell Vought—current Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Trump—is not just another skirmish in Washington’s ongoing political drama. It is a signal flare from the architects of Project 2025 , a radical plan to consolidate presidential power and dismantle key democratic institutions. And it should alarm anyone who cares about economic stability, rule of law, and the integrity of U.S. financial markets. Earlier this month, Vought posted a letter on social media accusing Powell of breaking the law, misleading Congress, and mismanaging a planned $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. The timing is not accidental. It comes just weeks after Donald Trump sent Powell a handwritten note pressuring him to slash interest rates. The letter also follows a wave of public attacks by Trump allies—including Peter Navarro and Bill Pulte—meant to delegitimize Powell and undermine the Federal Reserve’s i...

Trump's assaults on the Federal Reserve's independence must cease. BankThink - American Banker Newspaper.

At a July 8 cabinet meeting, President Donald Trump launched a fresh barrage of attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over his handling of interest rates, claiming Trump's team could "do a better job than him," accusing Powell of lying to Congress and calling for his resignation. The president even suggested that Powell acted to benefit the Biden-Harris campaign by speeding up rate cuts under Trump's predecessor, and slow-walking them now. "He's always late with me, not with Biden," Trump said, implying that Powell's monetary policy decision-making was politically motivated. The truth is as follows: Mr. Powell has a documented history of nonpartisan behavior when it comes to monetary policy, most recently displayed on June 24th during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Maintaining a nonpartisan stance, the Fed chair refused to make any comments about either Trump or the administration's fiscal policy. Of course, ...

The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Demonstrates a Commitment to Providing Clear Crypto Market Regulations. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

On July 9, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hosted a panel on cryptocurrency market structure. In a discussion of providing clarity, the shared sentiment that uncertainty is putting America at a disadvantage on the global stage was glaring. Almost every senator affirmed that the previous ambiguity that has historically characterized crypto regulation was driving away innovation to countries such as Singapore and the UAE. From this central tenet, three major topics emerged: the role of Congress in regulating crypto, the prevalence of illicit activity, and the conflicts of interest. Congress’s Role  There was no denial from the committee that the current securities laws and the Howey Test did not properly fit cryptocurrency. Thus, the majority of the questions stemmed from the desire to establish clearer regulations to promote innovation while protecting consumers and investors from fraud. Panelist Timothy Massad offered a well-received suggestion that Cong...

A Troubling Turn: Black Unemployment Sees Sharp Rise Amid 2025 Labor Market Shifts

The latest employment data paint a stark and concerning picture for Black workers in the U.S. economy. After steady—if uneven—gains in recent years, June 2025 brought a sharp reversal, especially for Black men. Black Male Unemployment Spikes Dramatically Black male unemployment surged from 5.2% in May to 6.9% in June—an astonishing jump of 1.7 percentage points in just one month. This represents the second largest monthly increase since the dark days of March-April 2020, when the pandemic lockdowns sent unemployment soaring. In raw numbers, Black men lost 181,000 jobs in June alone, a dramatic and painful setback. To put this in perspective, outside of the COVID-19 crisis, this is the largest one-month spike in Black male unemployment in at least a decade. Even during the Great Recession, similar jumps occurred over longer periods rather than in a single month. Overall Black Unemployment Trend Overall Black unemployment rose from 6.0% to 6.8% in June. This increase reflects a broader s...

House Voting on the “One Big Beautiful Bill” - Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

On July 1st, 2025, the U.S. Senate concluded its vote on the “One Big Beautiful Bill” with a tie, which was broken by Vice President J.D. Vance, allowing the bill to pass and move to the House of Representatives. The following day, July 2nd, the House began its vote. I managed to enter the chamber to observe the voting process and get a sense of the atmosphere firsthand. The House Atmosphere:   It’s worth noting that all House votes are open to the public. While public seating isn’t right next to the representatives, it still offers a full view of the chamber, along with clear displays showing what’s being voted on and how each member votes. The atmosphere in the room was striking. Most of the people watching from the observation booths were young adults, which caught me off guard, I expected an older crowd. While there were some older viewers, I was mostly surrounded by younger people. That matters, because it shows that younger generations are paying attention to what’s happ...

May 2025 Personal Income & Outlays Report: Impact on Black-owned and Minority Businesses

📉 Main Takeaways from May 2025 Personal income dropped by $109.6 billion (−0.4%) , driven mainly by lower government social benefits and a decline in farm proprietors’ income. ( bea.gov ). Disposable personal income fell by 0.6% , while consumer spending edged down 0.1% . Government transfers (e.g., Social Security, SNAP, Medicaid) fell —impacting individuals who depend heavily on them . ⚠️ Potential Impacts on Black & Minority Businesses 1. Thinner Consumer Wallets Black and minority entrepreneurs often serve communities where residents rely more on government benefits. A reduction in transfers and disposable income means: Lower foot traffic at local shops Fewer discretionary purchases on services like haircare, dining, or childcare 2. Slower Spending on Goods Goods spending dropped by $49.2 billion (services rose slightly), suggesting discretionary goods—key revenue for many minority-owned retailers—are getting squeezed. 3. Supplemental Income Drop ...

Semiannual Monetary Policy Hearing. Gabriel Philipp, Connor Stout, Dylan Unruh, and Rohan Sivakumar

Chairman Powell, center. Connor Stout, right, front row in white shirt. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Powell’s opening remarks addressed the state of the economy, which he said was “solid”.  He reiterated the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate to ensure price stability (inflation control) and maintain near-full employment. To this end, Mr. Powell said that, currently, inflation remains a non-issue, and the labor market is near maximum employment. Furthermore, the Chair attributed strong Q1 figures to ‘front-loading’ – increases in imports and consumption in preparation for potential price shocks due to tariffs. Mr. Powell stood by the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady earlier this month and noted that the Federal Reserve will act largely based on the impacts of tariffs, noting the lag between the instatement of a tariff and when its effects become observable (as early as Q3).  For the moment, the economy is in a good place, and the risk of recession is perhaps overstated. Howe...

Gallery of Art Philosophical Discussion: Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

CIR Interns at the Gallery of Art. Rohan Sivakumar (Left), Connor Stout (Middle), Gabriel Philipp (Right). Viewing  Breezing Up (A Fair Wind) by Winslow Homer, 1873-76. On June 21, 2025, CIR Interns Rohan Sivakumar (University of Chicago), Connor Stout (Denison University Ohio) and I, Gabriel Philipp (Siena College) attended a philosophical discussion on friendship at the National Gallery of Art. The event was organized by Mr. Juan Carlos as part of the “Philosophy Explained Through Art” series. It drew a large and diverse crowd, with attendees from various backgrounds bringing different perspectives on both philosophy and the art tied to the theme of friendship. The main goal was to reflect on and discuss the nature of friendship, ultimately asking: What does it mean to be a friend, and what defines a best friend? What is Friendship?  CIR Interns at the Gallery of Art. Gabriel Philipp (Left), Rohan Sivakumar (Middle), Connor Stout (Right)  There was an en...

Juneteenth. Adam Zakman University of California – Davis

The stress of cooking and finding enough chairs for Thanksgiving dinner, the fun of watching fireworks on Independence Day, finding a parking spot at the mall the week before Christmas, dealing with annoying relatives: activities and experiences that dominate our attention and define every holiday. People get so caught up in the rituals and minutiae of holidays that they lose sight of what they are celebrating. As much as holidays are a celebration of an event or person, they are, more fundamentally, a call for the remembrance of the virtues symbolized by those people and events. Christmas is not about who has the most valuable present waiting for them under the tree. Independence Day does not stand as an anti-British holiday. Thanksgiving certainly does not celebrate the history of European and Native American relations. They celebrate some of the foundational pillars of virtue our country rests upon: the generosity and the privilege of having enough to give, the proclamation of, and ...

Environmental Justice Summit at Howard University. Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

Environmental Justice Summit Panel #3 with Tracey Thompson, Dennis Chestnut, Dr. Estelle-Marie Montgomery, Latricea Adams, Erica Green, and Tobaris Smith On June 17, the Greater Washington Region Clean Cities Coalition (GWRCCC) hosted an Environmental Justice Summit at Howard University. The event featured a series of panels offering diverse perspectives on urban environmental challenges, like heat islands, poor air quality, health impacts from pollution, and energy development, along with potential solutions to improve community well-being. What’s up with the environment?  A few key points stood out from the event, especially the strong focus on advocacy in its many forms. Speakers emphasized the power of community organizing, grassroots efforts, and public education to raise awareness about environmental challenges. There was a recurring theme of unity, bringing people together to talk about shared experiences, build networks, and push for change. The idea was that strength in nu...

What the AWS AI Expo Revealed About Our Tech Future. Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

Last week, (6/10 and 11) Amazon Web Services (AWS) hosted its AI Expo (AWS Summit Washington, DC - Generative AI solutions) where top tech companies demonstrated how artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping industries. From data organization and legacy code transformation to complex scientific modeling, each firm offered a unique glimpse into how AI is being applied today—and where it might lead us tomorrow. Nvidia had one of the more interesting demos; they're using multiple AI models to handle specific tasks with existing research and data. One example: their software took a set of medical research notes and built a scale model of a protein. IBM showed off a system that updates outdated code to work on modern platforms. Datadog is using AI to boost how it collects and organizes data from websites. Other companies are also finding creative ways to use AI for software protection, data analysis, and development. Takeaway:  With AI’s rapid development, it’s exciting to imagine th...

May 2025 PPI Overview: What This Means for Black & Minority-Owned Businesses

  📊 May 2025 PPI Overview The PPI for final demand rose 0.1% in May, following a flat reading in April and a 0.2% rise in February.  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm On a year‑over‑year basis, producer prices increased 2.6% , up slightly from 2.5% in April. The modest monthly gain was driven by a 0.1% increase in final demand services (led by trade margins) and a 0.2% rise in goods prices , while energy remained flat. Excluding volatile categories like food, energy, and trade services, core PPI rose 0.1% in May and 2.7% over the past year. What This Means for Black & Minority-Owned Businesses 1. Trade Services (Retail & Wholesale) 0.4% increase in trade margins squeezed small retailers and wholesalers. Impact: Black and Hispanic-owned firms face higher sourcing costs—further limiting their ability to absorb or pass along price increases. 2. Goods Sector (Food, Metals, Energy) Final demand goods edged up 0.2%, driven by non-...

The Future of American Energy: Gridlock, Growth, and a Race Against Time By Connor Stout (Denison University) and Gabriel Philipp (Siena College)

Connor Stout, left and Gabriel Philipp, right. At the 2025 Politico Energy Summit on June 10th, leading lawmakers, CEOs, policy advocates, and former regulators gathered to dissect the energy future of the United States. Beneath the technical language and party lines, a powerful theme emerged; namely that the U.S. is heading into a period of intensifying energy demand, regulatory turbulence, and geopolitical competition. While consensus formed around some core issues, deep divisions remain over how to meet the moment. The Upcoming Energy Crisis: The unofficial theme of the summit was that the U.S. needs more energy in the upcoming decade. Nearly every speaker touched on the idea that the current energy infrastructure will not be capable of supporting the growth of artificial intelligence, data centers, and onshoring of manufacturing. AI, in particular, dominated the conversation. Industry leaders stressed that without a rapid expansion in power generation the U.S. could lose its techno...

May 2025 CPI Overview: Impact on Black and Minority Firms

  The CPI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1% in May (seasonally adjusted), down from 0.2% in April, with the annual inflation rate at 2.4% , up from 2.3% in April. Core CPI ( excluding food and energy ) also saw a 0.1% increase , holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year. Food prices climbed 0.3% , and energy costs dropped 1.0% for the month, driven largely by 2.6% lower gasoline prices. Key service categories like medical care, motor vehicle insurance, home furnishings, personal care, and education posted monthly increases between 0.3%–0.7% , while airline fares and used car prices declined. 🧩 Impact on Minority and Black-Owned Businesses 1. Food & Hospitality Impact: Food price increases (+0.3%) put pressure on grocery stores and restaurants, many of which are Black- and Hispanic-owned. They face rising packaging and ingredient costs. Action: These businesses should diversify suppliers and consider modest menu price adjustments to preserve margins. ...

“Yet Here I Am: Lessons from a Black Man’s Search for Home” by Jonathan Capehart. Gabriel Philipp, Intern, Siena College.

Jonathan Capehart (Left) and Michele Norris (Right) at the Library of Congress. Photo by Gabriel Philipp On Thursday, June 5, 2025 in the US Library of Congress Thomas Jefferson Building's Great Hall, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Jonathan Capehart discussed his memoir, “Yet Here I Am: Lessons from a Black Man’s Search for Home.” Capehart was in conversation with journalist Michele Norris. He discussed his experiences growing up and his path through his career in journalism. I found it an interesting talk that connected to a very personal aspect of my life. Socially Disconnected:  The thing that stuck with me most during the discussion was Capehart’s confession that he felt he didn’t belong in Washington, DC. He went on to talk about his feelings of disconnection from people. He experienced this as an environment where people had their separate groups, and that he felt it was hard to feel connected: if you’re not in the group then there’s only so much you can do to be conn...