This Week in ESG and Impact Investing

The Trump-backed House Budget Reconciliation Bill, labeled in the graphic as “The Big Beautiful Bill,” dramatically shifts after-tax-and-transfer income in ways that disproportionately harm lower-income Americans — particularly Black Americans, who are overrepresented in the bottom two quintiles due to systemic racial economic disparities. Key Takeaways from the Penn Wharton Budget Model (as of May 20, 2025): 1. Regressive Distributional Impact The bottom 20% (1st quintile) earning $0–$17,000 will see a 13.6% drop in after-tax-and-transfer income, averaging a loss of $940 per person. The second quintile ($17,000–$51,000) sees a 1.3% decline , averaging a loss of $580 . In contrast, the top 1% (incomes above $4.3 million) will gain $390,310 on average , a 3.1% increase . This signals a stark upward redistribution of wealth — a tax-and-transfer policy that cuts benefits and redistributes gains to the wealthy. Impact on Black Americans Black households are dispropor...

We are in the intermediate phase of an asymmetric political warfare action involving unconventional political weapons and tactics, such as guerrilla political warfare and political terrorism, as we noted in 2016. https://lnkd.in/ddgx_Pn Still, there are viable Strategic Economic Responses to Corporate Rollbacks of DEI Initiatives in Black Communities.  https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/strategic-economic-responses-corporate-rollbacks-qugte/ Email info@creativeinvest.com for more details.

The re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States in the 2024 election sent shockwaves through immigrant communities, sparking widespread anxiety and uncertainty. Trump's campaign promises and early policy signals suggest a return to—and potential intensification of—the anti-immigrant measures seen during his first term. Policies such as large-scale deportations, reduced labor visa quotas, and the expansion of the border wall threaten to deepen the discrimination and marginalization immigrants already face, undermining their fundamental rights and creating an increasingly hostile environment. Against this backdrop, I had the opportunity to attend the seminar "Communication as a Basic Human Right for Migrants," organized by the Center for Transnational Migration and Social Inclusion (CTMS) at Seoul National University. With Trump's re-election placing immigrant rights at the forefront of global discussions, this seminar served as a timely platform to ...

Former President Donald Trump’s economic policies, particularly his approaches to banking and financial services, have reignited speculation about their potential impact on minority businesses and consumers. As his political presence grows, understanding the implications of Trump-aligned policies becomes essential for those navigating this complex economic landscape. A defining feature of Trump’s economic policy approach has been financial deregulation. By reducing compliance requirements on financial institutions, deregulation is intended to stimulate lending and expand access to capital. However, this approach often disproportionately benefits large financial institutions while sidelining smaller community banks and credit unions, which are crucial to minority businesses. While proponents of deregulation argue that fewer regulations mean increased credit availability for minority-owned businesses, this outcome is far from guaranteed. The underlying anti-diversity, equity, and inclusi...

Trump’s New Economic Policies Could Have A Detrimental Impact On Black Businesses, Yet Some Opportunities May Exist. The article presents a critical analysis of the potential impact of Donald Trump’s proposed economic policies on Black-owned businesses. While acknowledging limited opportunities, the overall assessment suggests that the negative consequences will outweigh the positives. The analysis underscores that while some isolated opportunities may arise from Trump’s policies, the overall damage to Black businesses could surpass the setbacks experienced during his first term. The compounding effects of higher operational costs, reduced social safety nets, and macroeconomic uncertainty could stifle growth, increase business failures, and deepen racial economic disparities. While there are narrow windows of opportunity, Trump's proposed economic policies pose a significant threat to the stability and growth of Black-owned businesses, necessitating proactive strategies for mitigat...

The potential economic outcomes for minority-owned businesses under a Trump administration versus a Harris administration differ significantly due to their contrasting policy approaches, economic priorities, and historical records. This analysis explores the expected impacts on key areas such as access to capital, regulatory environment, market opportunities, and government support programs. Trump Administration 1. Access to Capital Pros: The Trump administration's focus on deregulation could make it easier for financial institutions to operate fraudulently, but might also increase the availability of loans, at least initially Cons: Deregulation may lead to less stringent lending practices, which could result in higher risks and potentially higher costs of borrowing for minority businesses. 2. Regulatory Environment Pros: A concerted push for reduced regulation might lower compliance costs for businesses, allowing minority-owned enterprises to allocate more resources to growth and ...

Five days after the trump administration proclaimed that "African-American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded,” the US Department of Labor reported on Friday that Black unemployment for the month of January jumped to 7.7%. As we noted on 12/30/17 in our Fully Adjusted Return Economic Forecast summary, "Black unemployment falls at the end of a sustained period of domestic economic growth and falls with a decline in immigration. This is counterbalanced, however, by increasing racism in general and specifically negative, anti-Black racial attitudes. Given an increase in the latter, we expect Black unemployment to increase toward the end of 2018, despite positive headwinds from reduced immigration." Note that our June 11, 2016 Fully Adjusted Return Election Forecast also correctly predicted Donald Trump's win, and can be found at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-trump-win-william-michael-cunningham-am-mba/ For the full 2018 Economic forec...

On April 17, 2017 , we made the following suggestion: "Get some Bitcoins. Now! Why? Our economic forecasting models (the same ones that predicted Trump's win , btw) show an extended period of instability coming, and soon. Should things really go south, bitcoin will be one of the few transaction tools you can depend on. (You can thank me later..just don't say we didn't warn you and give you a way out that we both could benefit from...but I digress...) If you don't know what Bitcoin is, this may help: 'Bitcoin is a new kind of money that can be sent from one person to another without the need for a trusted third party such as a bank or other financial institution; it is the first global, decentralized currency. One of the most important elements of Bitcoin is the blockchain, which tracks who owns what, similar to how a bank tracks assets. What sets the Bitcoin blockchain apart from a bank's ledger is that it is distributed, meaning anyone can view it. ...

We recently gave a talk to the Greater Houston Black Chamber (GHBC), at their monthly Business Luncheon  “2 nd  Tuesday with the Chamber”  on for February 14, 2017. The link at left is to a video of the discussion. I described the current economic environment for black businesses in Houston and provided a forecast for 2017.  "Founded in 1935 as the city’s first African -American civic organization, the GHBC has evolved into an active participant in the City of Houston’s socioeconomic process. The organization is a 501(c) (6), not-for-profit, private, member-driven organization that serves the Greater Houston Area.  The GHBC is dedicated to supporting African-American small businesses in the areas of education, certification and accessing contracting opportunities and capital." See:  https://youtu.be/toYeng7PlRQ

Now that a little time has passed,  we can review the Brexit vote with more perspective and forecast its impact on the US financial system more objectively. To do so, we believe it important to consider the following: Brexit's main short term impact will be to restrict the ability of the Fed to respond to domestic economic and financial issues, already evident in their decision to keep rates low. Further, the Fed may have to create a special QE Brexit liquidity facility to support American firms in the UK who now need to move operations either back to the US or to the Continent. Finally, having announced at the House Financial Services Committee Monetary Policy Hearing this week a November conference to examine black unemployment, we predict this effort will be placed on hold as the Fed struggles to deal with the uncertainty that follows the Brexit vote. Uncertainty is, of course, the greatest legacy of Brexit. Consider this: each and every contract signed in the UK when ...

Our initial 2016 Election Fully Adjusted Return Forecast indicates that Donald J. Trump will win the election for the Presidency of the United States. This follows from one  sufficient and one necessary condition.   The sufficient condition: seventeen (17) Republican states have enacted laws restricting access to the voting booth, restrictions so onerous as to defy both common sense and the spirit of democratic governance. These laws guarantee that the people who would vote against Mr. Trump will be blocked from participating in the election. They simply will not be able to vote. For example, to vote in the State of Texas, a gun permit suffices. A college ID does not. So it is in 17 of 50 US States.  The movement to block access to voting has been a long term effort, a reaction to the election of the first African American president, and it is now too late to do anything about this.  Rather than effectively fighting voter disenfranchisement, Democrats wer...