Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Sunday, February 4, 2018

Black Unemployment Jumps to 7.7%


Five days after the trump administration proclaimed that "African-American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded,” the US Department of Labor reported on Friday that Black unemployment for the month of January jumped to 7.7%.

As we noted on 12/30/17 in our Fully Adjusted Return Economic Forecast summary,

"Black unemployment falls at the end of a sustained period of domestic economic growth and falls with a decline in immigration. This is counterbalanced, however, by increasing racism in general and specifically negative, anti-Black racial attitudes. Given an increase in the latter, we expect Black unemployment to increase toward the end of 2018, despite positive headwinds from reduced immigration."

Note that our June 11, 2016 Fully Adjusted Return Election Forecast also correctly predicted Donald Trump's win, and can be found at: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-trump-win-william-michael-cunningham-am-mba/

For the full 2018 Economic forecast, please join us at 6 pm on February 13, 2018 (1/9/2018). RSVP at https://forecast2018.eventbrite.com

Also see: Why Janet Yellen is wrong on Black unemployment, published on July 17, 2015, at https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-janet-yellen-wrong-black-unemployment-cunningham-am-mba/

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Too Late for Bitcoin?

On April 17, 2017, we made the following suggestion:
"Get some Bitcoins. Now! Why? Our economic forecasting models (the same ones that predicted Trump's win, btw) show an extended period of instability coming, and soon. Should things really go south, bitcoin will be one of the few transaction tools you can depend on. (You can thank me later..just don't say we didn't warn you and give you a way out that we both could benefit from...but I digress...) If you don't know what Bitcoin is, this may help: 'Bitcoin is a new kind of money that can be sent from one person to another without the need for a trusted third party such as a bank or other financial institution; it is the first global, decentralized currency. One of the most important elements of Bitcoin is the blockchain, which tracks who owns what, similar to how a bank tracks assets. What sets the Bitcoin blockchain apart from a bank's ledger is that it is distributed, meaning anyone can view it. Since Bitcoin is open, no company, country, or third party is in control of it, and anyone can participate.' "

Here is another summary of bitcoin written by one of our former interns.
Our advice at the time? "Open an account. Buy $100 in Bitcoin. Hold for now." See: https://www.coinbase.com/join/58f01584810de762e53f9c02 Had you done so, your holding (not investment....we don't think bitcoin is suitable as an investment. It is for transaction purposes. It doesn't hurt, of course, that it has gone up....) would have gone from $1,203 to $2,032, as the chart below shows.
Many have asked if there is still time to participate. My answer is....stop being greedy. The rally was a byproduct of the political instability we predicted. (We note that CNBC recently followed our lead with a story one month after our forecast that "Bitcoin jumps to fresh record near $1,900 amid increased political risk.")
As long as there is the kind of extreme political instability we have experienced recently, the price of bitcoin will probably increase.

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Business under Trump

We recently gave a talk to the Greater Houston Black Chamber (GHBC), at their monthly Business Luncheon “2nd Tuesday with the Chamber” on for February 14, 2017. The link at left is to a video of the discussion. I described the current economic environment for black businesses in Houston and provided a forecast for 2017. 

"Founded in 1935 as the city’s first African -American civic organization, the GHBC has evolved into an active participant in the City of Houston’s socioeconomic process. The organization is a 501(c) (6), not-for-profit, private, member-driven organization that serves the Greater Houston Area.  The GHBC is dedicated to supporting African-American small businesses in the areas of education, certification and accessing contracting opportunities and capital."

See: https://youtu.be/toYeng7PlRQ

Saturday, July 2, 2016

Brexit: Now What?

Now that a little time has passed,  we can review the Brexit vote with more perspective and forecast its impact on the US financial system more objectively.
To do so, we believe it important to consider the following:
Brexit's main short term impact will be to restrict the ability of the Fed to respond to domestic economic and financial issues, already evident in their decision to keep rates low. Further, the Fed may have to create a special QE Brexit liquidity facility to support American firms in the UK who now need to move operations either back to the US or to the Continent. Finally, having announced at the House Financial Services Committee Monetary Policy Hearing this week a November conference to examine black unemployment, we predict this effort will be placed on hold as the Fed struggles to deal with the uncertainty that follows the Brexit vote.
Uncertainty is, of course, the greatest legacy of Brexit. Consider this: each and every contract signed in the UK when the UK was part of the EU will probably now have to be reviewed and renewed. This includes contracts for financial instruments, a huge burden. This alone may shave 1% from potential economic growth.
One group badly damaged by this vote are mainstream economists, who insisted on issuing alarming estimates of the economic damage a vote to leave would cause. As with missing the financial crisis of 2008, they failed to realize that the majority of voters in the UK were willing, on the day of the vote at least, to incur whatever Brexit costs. Make no mistake about it: what is at core here is a desire and a willingness to discriminate against Muslims, immigrants and even other Europeans in an attempt to restore some supposedly faded glory to a British Empire that no longer exists. This is the very definition of crazy.
Our Fully Adjusted Return Economic Forecast predicts the damage to the British economy from Brexit in 2016 will be smaller than anticipated by most mainstream economists. It will, in other words, be manageable. The long term damage will be greater, of course, but, by then it will not matter. The demonstration effect dominates. By showing that a right wing, extreme, nationwide referendum based on entitlement and bigotry can be successful, the Brexit vote all but guarantees that Donald J. Trump will be elected President of the US.
While what happens after that is anybody's guess, it probably will not be good for democratic principles and values.

Saturday, June 11, 2016

Why Trump Will Win

Our initial 2016 Election Fully Adjusted Return Forecast indicates that Donald J. Trump will win the election for the Presidency of the United States. This follows from one  sufficient and one necessary condition.  
The sufficient condition: seventeen (17) Republican states have enacted laws restricting access to the voting booth, restrictions so onerous as to defy both common sense and the spirit of democratic governance. These laws guarantee that the people who would vote against Mr. Trump will be blocked from participating in the election. They simply will not be able to vote. For example, to vote in the State of Texas, a gun permit suffices. A college ID does not. So it is in 17 of 50 US States. 
The movement to block access to voting has been a long term effort, a reaction to the election of the first African American president, and it is now too late to do anything about this. 

Rather than effectively fighting voter disenfranchisement, Democrats were convinced that this was a Black issue (Florida 2000, Ohio 2004), and therefore unworthy of serious consideration. They were also distracted by fabricated controversies, like the birther issue (promoted by one Donald J. Trump).  Finally, having the nation's largest news channel bring forth an unprecedented level of misinformation and vitriol aimed at the current President and the presumptive Democratic nominee served to create an atmosphere of  mistrust. The financial crisis added to the level of dissatisfaction. 
What this means is that Mr. Trump can insult Mexicans all he likes.  He can insult immigrants and members of other minority groups as well: they are not going to be able to vote.
Thus, Mr. Trump's behaviour is not accidental. This brings us to the necessary condition.
Having blocked access to the polls, all that is required to push Mr. Trump into the White House is a surge in voting by disaffected, uneducated, low to moderate income white voters. This, the biggest demographic in the election, must be incentivized to participate. Mr. Trump's behaviour and language does so. 
Given the above, popular voting victory is assured. The Electoral College, the only votes that really matter, will be forced to follow.
Game. Set. Match.
Welcome, President Trump.