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Showing posts with the label unemployment

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Need to be Coordinated Globally

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AT almost that three times the level reported in December, 2019, Friday's Black unemployment rate number is surprising and unfortunate, no matter what partisan policymakers and economists say. Remember, our expectation (and hope) was that fiscal and monetary policy actions would limit the initial damage. The Paycheck Protection and Economic Injury Disaster Loan programs certainly helped keep May's unemployment rate below 20%, but the numbers show that more focused fiscal and monetary policy actions, coordinated on a global level, are needed. In our comment on the Economic and Social Costs of "Reopening" America, we estimated that U.S. small businesses would need $6 trillion on an annual basis to ensure their survival through the coronavirus crisis. This was confirmed by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (See: https://twisri.blogspot.com/2020/04/economic-and-social-costs-of-reopening.html ). Unfortunately the unemployment numbers sho

Trump's Tariffs on China will Mainly Hurt the Fed by Hongcheng Chen, Creative Investment Research

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The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement on March 21, indicated that the Committee voted for a quarter-point increase in federal fund rate. (See:  http://twisri.blogspot.com/2018/03/probability-of-fed-rate-hike-in-march.html ) The Fed seemed to signal, by this rate hike, that a more robust  economic outlook, strengthened, at least in part, due to fiscal policy (tax bill), provides a solid base on which to tighten (increase interest rates) monetary policy more aggressively in the future. The FOMC also sought to cling to a strategy in 2018 , according to the statement , that “ supports strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2% inflation .” Top  FOMC  considerations : Inflation targets and the labor market This cautious stance diverged from market expectation in a surprising way: the market seemed to expect more . The accommodative monetary policy and moderate rat