Some economists argue that working-class Americans who vote for billionaire politicians are driven primarily by shame, status anxiety, and a desire to burn the system down. Of course, the psychology matters—but we examine, below, the fundamental economic realities that created these conditions in the first place.
When we put the economic narrative side-by-side with the data, a more precise conclusion emerges: status resentment is not the cause—it is the symptom. The cause is a long-running economic and policy failure that we predicted in 1995 and that has never been structurally repaired.
This post looks at three core indicators—income, manufacturing employment, and union membership—to show why appeals to dignity resonate, and why toxic and incompetent billionaire “outsiders” can exploit that resonance.
1. Income: The Promise Was Deliberately Broken, Not Forgotten
For decades, white working-class Americans were told that productivity gains and economic growth would translate into rising living standards. That promise has not been kept.
Chart 1: Productivity vs Income, 1948–2024
(Source: Economic Policy Institute)
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Real median household income in 2024 is only marginally higher than it was before the pandemic—and not dramatically above late-1990s levels when adjusted for inflation.
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Gains since 2021 have been uneven and fragile, easily erased by inflation spikes in housing, food, insurance, and utilities.
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For Black households, real median income declined in the most recent year, reinforcing the perception that recovery is not broadly shared.
Why this matters
When incomes stagnate over an entire working lifetime, economic frustration becomes existential. People do not feel temporarily squeezed—they feel written off. That is fertile ground for politics that emphasize humiliation, betrayal, and revenge rather than hard-to-implement, incremental policy fixes.
2. Manufacturing Jobs: Community Collapse Is a Measured Fact
The emotional argument often treats deindustrialization as symbolic. The data show it is literal.
Chart 2: U.S. Manufacturing Employment, 1979–2025
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
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Manufacturing employment peaked near 19.6 million jobs in 1979.
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As of late 2025, manufacturing employs roughly 12.7 million workers.
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That loss is not just jobs—it represents the disappearance of union wages, apprenticeships, community tax bases, and intergenerational stability.
Why this matters
In many regions, manufacturing jobs were not replaced with equivalent employment. They were replaced with:
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Lower-paid service work
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Non-union logistics and warehouse jobs (Amazon)
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Precarious gig and contract labor
When politicians talk about “economic growth” without acknowledging this structural downgrade, voters conclude—rationally—that the system no longer works for them. Voting for an “arsonist” becomes a form of protest against decades of white elite indifference.
3. Union Decline: The Loss of Dignity at Work
Status anxiety does not arise in a vacuum. It grows when workers lose collective power.
Chart 3: Union Membership Rate, 1983–2024
(Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)
What the chart shows
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Union membership has fallen from 20.1% in 1983 to 9.9% in 2024.
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The decline is even sharper in the private sector, where most white working-class Americans are employed.
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Unions historically provided not just higher wages, but voice, respect, and security.
Why this matters
When unions decline:
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Workers lose bargaining power
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Wages flatten
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Benefits erode
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Job security disappears
In that vacuum, politics becomes one of identity rather than negotiation. Billionaire candidates can posture as “strong” precisely because workers no longer experience strength in their own economic institutions.
The Real Takeaway: Shame Is the Messenger, Not the Message
The popular explanation—that voters are driven by shame and status alone—gets the order backward.
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Economic dislocation comes first, as we predicted in 1995. (See Page 38.)
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Status loss follows
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Political resentment fills the gap (see link above)
Billionaire politicians succeed not because white voters misunderstand economics, but because they understand it too well. They know the system failed to deliver stable incomes, secure work, and dignity. When no credible economic repair is offered, destruction becomes a substitute for reform.
You cannot spreadsheet your way out of humiliation—but you also cannot talk about humiliation without fixing the spreadsheet.
Policy Implication: Fix the Structure or Expect the Fire
If policymakers want fewer white “arsonist votes,” the solution is not messaging discipline—it is structural repair.
Until then, white working class and lower middle income voters (the largest bloc of voters) will continue to choose candidates who promise to punish the system rather than improve it. Hate is a toxic substitute for a fix, but, in the minds of poor, white working class voters, it's better than nothing. Eventually, they're poisoned as well.
Not because they are irrational—but because the data tell them, as we did, that the system has already burned them.