Creative Investment Research has revised its February 2025 unemployment forecast ahead of the March 7, 2025, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, incorporating worsening economic conditions reflected in the latest Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow projections. The U.S. economy is now expected to shrink by 2.8% in Q1 2025, a sharp downward revision from -1.5% just days earlier, signaling deeper-than-expected economic contraction and potentially accelerating job losses across key industries. The latest data show that personal consumption expenditures growth has fallen to 0.0%, indicating a near standstill in consumer spending, while private fixed investment growth has dropped to 0.1%, reflecting a sharp pullback in business investment. These factors are expected to have a direct impact on the labor market, leading to a more pronounced rise in unemployment than initially forecast. Revised Unemployment Forecast for February 2025 1. Overall Unemployment Rate Likely to Rise to 4.2% An inc...
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