Skip to main content

Forecasting the Unemployment Numbers for March 7, 2025: Analyzing Key Economic Indicators

Creative Investment Research has revised its February 2025 unemployment forecast ahead of the March 7, 2025, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, incorporating worsening economic conditions reflected in the latest Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow projections. The U.S. economy is now expected to shrink by 2.8% in Q1 2025, a sharp downward revision from -1.5% just days earlier, signaling deeper-than-expected economic contraction and potentially accelerating job losses across key industries.

The latest data show that personal consumption expenditures growth has fallen to 0.0%, indicating a near standstill in consumer spending, while private fixed investment growth has dropped to 0.1%, reflecting a sharp pullback in business investment. These factors are expected to have a direct impact on the labor market, leading to a more pronounced rise in unemployment than initially forecast.

Revised Unemployment Forecast for February 2025

1. Overall Unemployment Rate Likely to Rise to 4.2%

An increase from January’s 4.0%, reflecting slowing hiring, growing layoffs, and weakened economic activity.

2. Black Unemployment Expected to Climb to 6.8% (Revised from 6.5%)

A 0.6 percentage point increase from January (6.2%), reflecting government job reductions and weaker hiring in sectors that disproportionately employ Black workers.

As government employment declines further, Black workers—who are overrepresented in the public sector—are more vulnerable to job losses.

3. Hispanic Unemployment Projected to Increase to 5.8% (Revised from 5.5%)

The sharp downturn in consumer spending (0.0% growth) is likely to disrupt service-sector employment, where Hispanic workers hold a large share of jobs in retail, hospitality, and food services.

Construction slowdowns due to near-zero private investment growth could further impact Hispanic employment.

4. White Unemployment Expected to increase to 4.0% from 3.9%

White unemployment is less affected by the downturn due to greater employment mobility, stronger job networks, and lower exposure to declining industries.

5. Asian Unemployment Expected to Edge Up to 3.9% (Revised from 3.8%)

High-skill industries, particularly in finance and tech, are showing signs of job losses, contributing to a slight rise in Asian unemployment.

Worsening Economic Indicators Confirm a Weaker Labor Market

Atlanta Fed GDPNow: -2.8% Expected GDP Contraction in Q1 2025 (Down from -1.5% on Feb. 28)

Personal Consumption Expenditures Growth at 0.0% (Signaling a complete halt in consumer spending expansion)

Private Fixed Investment Growth at 0.1% (A steep decline from the previous estimate of 3.5%, reflecting businesses pulling back on expansion and hiring)

Weekly Jobless Claims Surged to 242,000 (The highest level in five months, confirming rising layoffs across multiple sectors)

Policy Implications and Next Steps

"These revised numbers show that the economic slowdown is accelerating faster than expected," said William Michael Cunningham, economist and editor of Impact Investing Online. "The steep contraction in GDP, coupled with near-zero consumer spending and investment growth, is a warning sign that employment conditions may worsen in the coming months. Black and Hispanic workers, who have historically been most vulnerable to downturns, are already experiencing higher job losses, and without policy intervention, these disparities could widen."

Creative Investment Research will continue to monitor labor market trends and provide data-driven analysis on economic conditions affecting historically marginalized communities.

Popular posts from this blog

Kamalanomics: Home and Health

Vice President Kamala Harris recently unveiled her economic plan, which builds upon and expands several initiatives from the Biden administration while adding new elements aimed at addressing economic challenges faced by American families. Her plan, dubbed the "Opportunity Economy" agenda, focuses on lowering costs for essential goods and services, particularly targeting housing, healthcare, and groceries. Key Components: 1. Housing: Harris proposes constructing three million new homes to address the housing supply crunch, which is more ambitious than Biden's two-million-home plan. She also advocates for a $40 billion "innovation fund" to encourage local governments to find solutions to housing shortages and make it harder for investment companies to buy up large numbers of rental properties, which has driven up rent prices. (See: Comments to the CalPERS Board of Administration, July 15, 2024 on Housing and Environmental Investing.) 2. Healthcare: Expanding on B...

Maternal Health Financing Facility for Black Women: A Solution to an Urgent Problem

Maternal mortality is a significant issue in the United States, with Black women disproportionately affected. Research conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has shown that Black women are more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than their white counterparts. However, the issue is not new, and despite the increasing amount of data available, the disparities have remained unaddressed for far too long.  Creative Investment Research (CIR) is among the organizations that believe there is a solution to the problem. Through our proposed impact investing vehicle , the Maternal Health Financing Facility for Black Women (MHFFBW), we aim to tackle the mortality gap and support Black women during childbirth, which will, in turn, benefit their communities. The Facility, based on legally binding financing agreements containing terms and conditions that direct resources to individuals and institutions capable of addressing supply-side conditions at the heart...

William Michael Cunningham on Impact Investing, Blockchain, and Crowdfunding

September 2018 - 10 Questions William Michael Cunningham on Impact Investing, Blockchain, and Crowdfunding Interview by Carly Schulaka WHO: William Michael Cunningham WHAT: Economist, impact investing specialist, founder of Creative Investment Research WHAT'S ON HIS MIND: “Any finance professional in the U.S. should learn how to create a blockchain.” 1. You are an economist, an inventor, and an impact investing specialist. I’ve heard you say: “True innovation happens in a way that is independent of monetary returns.” How does this statement influence your work? It’s really about finding an interesting problem and applying financial technology to solving that problem or to dealing with that problem. You know, the people who invented the alphabet didn’t do so to make money. They had an interesting problem—communication on both a local and a grand scale—and if you were to calculate the social return for the invention of that technology or technique, it’s almost infinit...