Showing posts with label BETTY LIU. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BETTY LIU. Show all posts

Thursday, May 28, 2015

US GDP Forecast

The Bureau of Economic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the second estimate of First Quarter 2015 US GDP on Friday at 8:30 am. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the the broadest measure of economic activity. Most forecasters are predicting GDP will decline by 1.0% from the earlier quarter (4th Quarter, 2014.)

Our 2015 Fully Adjusted Return® forecast for GDP suggests there will be no change, in other words, we will have a first quarter 2015 GDP estimate that reflects virtually no change, or negative 0.5%." 

The US economy is strong and getting stronger. The only thing that can damage it are policy mistakes (like raising interest rates too soon) by officials at the Federal Reserve, and this is reason to be concerned. 

Fed economic policymakers, especially the group at left: MODERATOR: BETTY LIU ANCHOR, “IN THE LOOP WITH BETTY LIU,” BLOOMBERG TELEVISION, ALAN GREENSPAN PRESIDENT, GREENSPAN ASSOCIATES; FORMER CHAIRMAN, FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RICHARD W. FISHER FORMER PRESIDENT AND CEO, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF DALLAS, LAWRENCE B. LINDSEY PRESIDENT AND CEO, THE LINDSEY GROUP; FORMER DIRECTOR, NATIONAL ECONOMIC COUNCIL UNDER PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH; FORMER GOVERNOR, FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD. (At the 2015 Fiscal Summit sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation.)

These guys collectively have, as one analyst noted, made some of the worst economic forecasts EVER.  

For example, in a speech titled The Great Moderation given on February 20, 2004, Ben Bernanke, not shown above, but another former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, failed to note the risk of the then soon to be felt Great Recession that started in 2006.

We note that Bernanke now says "China's economic slowdown should not worry markets as there was no risk of a hard landing, and emphasized that a move to raise U.S. rates should be viewed as a positive sign for the world's largest economy."

As I said, reason to be concerned.