Showing posts with label economic forecast. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economic forecast. Show all posts

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Need to be Coordinated Globally


AT almost that three times the level reported in December, 2019, Friday's Black unemployment rate number is surprising and unfortunate, no matter what partisan policymakers and economists say.

Remember, our expectation (and hope) was that fiscal and monetary policy actions would limit the initial damage. The Paycheck Protection and Economic Injury Disaster Loan programs certainly helped keep May's unemployment rate below 20%, but the numbers show that more focused fiscal and monetary policy actions, coordinated on a global level, are needed.

In our comment on the Economic and Social Costs of "Reopening" America, we estimated that U.S. small businesses would need $6 trillion on an annual basis to ensure their survival through the coronavirus crisis. This was confirmed by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (See: https://twisri.blogspot.com/2020/04/economic-and-social-costs-of-reopening.html).

Unfortunately the unemployment numbers show that we are just beginning to see the true scale of the damage caused by the virus. As we forecast on December 26, 2016,

" Under any conceivable scenario, the current situation is very bad, and I mean toxic, for democratic institutions in general and for people of color specifically. Bottom line: our Fully Adjusted Return Forecast** indicates that, over time, things will get much, much worse....." 
See: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/trumpism-william-michael-cunningham-am-mba/  

Saturday, October 12, 2019

Fully Adjusted Return Economic Forecast for 2020

We are pleased to present our 2020 economic forecast incorporating social factors (Fully Adjusted Return). Tickets can be obtained at: https://econforecast2020.eventbrite.com

We have a track record of issuing unusually accurate economic forecasts:

In October 1998, in a petition to the Federal Reserve and the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (Case Number 98-1459), Mr. Cunningham forecast the financial crisis that occured ten years later. (See: https://www.creativeinvest.com/OppositionToCitigroupTravelersMerger.pdf )

On June 15, 2000, we testified before the House Financial Services Committee and warned that ethical issues at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would led to their failure.

On December 22, 2003, our economic forecasting models signaled the probability of system-wide economic and market failure. See page 6: http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s71903/wmccir122203.pdf

As we noted on Oct. 5, 2006, forecasting the development of cryptocurrencies: "competitive advantage with respect to capital access is available to any country with significant economic potential and a modest telecommunications infrastructure." https://www.sec.gov/comments/4-526/4526-1.pdf

A review of our Texas Black Economic Forecasts can be found at: https://youtu.be/fSGje7OaLpk

We discuss economic indicators for 2020 in light of critical risk factors.

1. International instability.
2. Domestic social and cultural instability.
3. US Policy: We describe the unintended consequences from the impeachment effort in the House.
4. Technology and large financial institutions.
5. Environmental factors/issues.
6. Libra, Bitcoin and digital currencies.
7. Investment Market Forecast.

Since these risks are not evenly distributed. we detail which business sectors and geographies will be safer (and thus more profitable) than others. We also discuss where to look for positive factors in certain American political institutions and commercial entities. Finally, we discuss timing and synchronicity.

(Our June 11, 2016 Fully Adjusted Return Election Forecast, which correctly predicted Donald Trump's win, can be found at: http://twisri.blogspot.com/2016/06/why-trump-will-win.html)
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Everybody has an opinion. We have a track record.