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Showing posts with the label economic forecast

Fiscal and Monetary Policy Need to be Coordinated Globally

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AT almost that three times the level reported in December, 2019, Friday's Black unemployment rate number is surprising and unfortunate, no matter what partisan policymakers and economists say. Remember, our expectation (and hope) was that fiscal and monetary policy actions would limit the initial damage. The Paycheck Protection and Economic Injury Disaster Loan programs certainly helped keep May's unemployment rate below 20%, but the numbers show that more focused fiscal and monetary policy actions, coordinated on a global level, are needed. In our comment on the Economic and Social Costs of "Reopening" America, we estimated that U.S. small businesses would need $6 trillion on an annual basis to ensure their survival through the coronavirus crisis. This was confirmed by the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. (See: https://twisri.blogspot.com/2020/04/economic-and-social-costs-of-reopening.html ). Unfortunately the unemployment numbers sho

Fully Adjusted Return Economic Forecast for 2020

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We are pleased to present our 2020 economic forecast incorporating social factors (Fully Adjusted Return). Tickets can be obtained at:  https://econforecast2020.eventbrite.com We have a track record of issuing unusually accurate economic forecasts: In October 1998, in a petition to the Federal Reserve and the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit (Case Number 98-1459), Mr. Cunningham forecast the financial crisis that occured ten years later. (See: https://www.creativeinvest.com/OppositionToCitigroupTravelersMerger.pdf ) On June 15, 2000, we testified before the House Financial Services Committee and warned that ethical issues at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would led to their failure. On December 22, 2003, our economic forecasting models signaled the probability of system-wide economic and market failure. See page 6: http://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/s71903/wmccir122203.pdf As we noted on Oct. 5, 2006, forecasting the development of cryptocurrencies: &qu