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Showing posts with the label CPI July 2026

July CPI Looks Better — Perhaps Too Conveniently Better

The July 2026 Consumer Price Index appears, at first glance, to deliver exactly the inflation story policymakers and financial markets would like to see. The Consumer Price Index increased just 0.1 percent in July , following a 0.4 percent decline in June. Annual inflation edged down from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent , while core CPI slowed to 2.5 percent year-over-year . That is certainly better than the inflation surge seen earlier this year. But the July report deserves more scrutiny than the headline numbers are likely to receive. The issue is that the apparent improvement depends heavily on statistical adjustments, volatile energy prices, and methodological choices that can make a small monthly change look more definitive than it really is. For Black- and minority-owned businesses, which make decisions based on actual fuel bills, rents, insurance premiums, food costs, and borrowing expenses, the distinction matters. The Headline Number Is Doing a Lot of Work BLS reported a seasonall...