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Showing posts from September, 2024

A Primer on Social Security and US Government Spending. Leon Ilgner, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Nürnberg-Erlangen.

The US is currently facing the possibility of a government shutdown if Congress does not pass a funding bill or a stopgap measure before October 1. A short-term spending bill has been proposed to fund federal agencies for about three months, temporarily averting a shutdown. Government shutdowns occur when Congress fails to pass the 12 annual appropriation bills required to fund federal agencies. Under the Antideficiency Act, federal agencies cannot spend or obligate any money without an appropriation from Congress. When this happens, non-essential functions cease until Congress acts, leading to a government shutdown. Government shutdowns can be used as a political tool by parties to push their agendas. For example, a party may refuse to pass a funding bill unless certain policy demands are met. This tactic can create significant leverage, as the threat of a shutdown puts pressure on the opposing party to negotiate and potentially concede to some demands to keep the government running...

A Solution to the Crisis of Gun Violence in the US. Leon Ilgner, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Nürnberg-Erlangen.

In 2021, the United States experienced 48,830 gun-related deaths, including murders, suicides, accidental deaths, and law enforcement incidents. Over the past decade, more than 167,000 people have died from gun violence , with 324,000 injured. These figures highlight the severe impact of gun violence on American society. As of 2024, there are approximately 82.88 million gun owners in the U.S., with 43% of households owning at least one firearm. The country has over 500 million civilian-owned firearms , reflecting a deep-rooted gun culture. Firearms typically cost between $400 and $800, with a median cost of around $600. Ammunition ranges from $0.08 to $3 per round, totaling between $80 and $3,000 for 1,000 rounds, with a median cost of approximately $1,540. Gun range fees vary from $10 to $50 per hour, totaling between $120 and $600 for 12 visits, with a median cost of around $360. Therefore, the rough median estimate for buying and using a firearm multiple times per year, excluding...

Fed Rate Cuts: A Boost or Challenge for Minority-Owned Businesses?

The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could have notable impacts on minority-owned businesses, both positive and challenging. Here’s a breakdown of key points: 1. Lower Borrowing Costs: One of the most immediate effects of a rate cut is the reduction in borrowing costs. For minority businesses, which often face higher barriers to accessing capital, lower interest rates can make loans more affordable, allowing for investment in growth, hiring, and equipment. This is particularly helpful for small businesses that rely on lines of credit or business loans for daily operations.  2. Increased Access to Capital: Minority-owned businesses, historically underserved by traditional financial institutions, may benefit from the easing of credit conditions. Lenders could be more willing to offer better terms or approve loans that were previously out of reach. This can encourage these businesses to expand operations, hire more employees, and increase their overall competitiveness ...

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BankThink - 'Kamalanomics' presents a major growth opportunity for US banks

As the 2024 election season heats up, economic policy proposals are once again at the forefront of the national debate. Vice President Kamala Harris, widely recognized for her work in the Senate and in the White House, has introduced a comprehensive economic strategy known as " Kamalanomics ," built on principles of inclusive growth, social equity  and targeted investments in underserved communities. The debate on Tuesday between Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, highlighted the stark contrast between their economic visions. Trump advocated for a return to his administration's focus on deregulation and tax cuts, while Harris championed her plan for inclusive growth and social equity. As the debate unfolded, Harris emphasized the need for targeted investments in underserved communities, framing these efforts as essential for a sustainable and equitable economic future. While this approach aims to reduce ...

Crimes violents : Les taux de crimes violents ont connu des fluctuations notables à partir de 2018. Emeric Vuattier, ESC AMIENS, Amiens, France

Résumé : Crimes violents : Les taux de crimes violents ont connu des fluctuations notables à partir de 2018. Il semble y avoir des augmentations et des diminutions périodiques, certains mois présentant des pics importants. Crimes contre les biens : Les crimes contre les biens suivent un schéma assez similaire à celui des crimes violents, avec des fluctuations qui peuvent indiquer des effets saisonniers ou d'autres influences externes. Analyse : Les tendances saisonnières : Les taux de criminalité, en particulier les infractions contre les biens telles que les cambriolages et les vols, présentent souvent des tendances saisonnières. Par exemple, les mois d'été peuvent être marqués par des taux de criminalité plus élevés en raison de l'augmentation des activités de plein air, tandis que les mois d'hiver peuvent être marqués par des taux plus faibles en raison de conditions météorologiques plus difficiles. Facteurs externes : Les conditions économiques, les activi...

Echtzeit-Kriminalitätsindex: Gewaltverbrechen, 2018 bis 2024. Leon Ilgner, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Nürnberg-Erlangen.

Die Wahrnehmungen von Kriminalität und Sicherheit sind drängende Themen in den USA. Um den aktuellen Stand zu veranschaulichen, wurde der Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI) erstellt. Der RTCI sammelt in Echtzeit Kriminalitätsdaten, die von Strafverfolgungsbehörden im ganzen Land gemeldet werden. Er soll Trends messen, indem er die Datenerfassung standardisiert. Daten des RTCI zeigen, dass der Diebstahl von Kraftfahrzeugen mit einem Gesamtanstieg von 88% den höchsten Anstieg aus allen Kriminalitätskategorien abbildet. Danach folgen die Kategorien Mord (26%), schwere Körperverletzung (16%), Gewaltkriminalität (5%) und Eigentumskriminalität (2%). In einigen Bereichen ist die Gesamtzahl der Verbrechen jedoch in diesen sechs Jahren auch zurückgegangen. Einbruchdiebstahl zeigt den höchsten Rückgang insgesamt (-22%), gefolgt von Raub (-13%), Vergewaltigung (-11%) und Diebstahl (-7%). Die Analyse dieser Daten ergab, dass landesweit die Kriminalitätsrate im dritten Quartal am höchsten und im ersten Q...

Aug. 2024 Employment Data Shows Improvement for Black Workers, Minor Change Elsewhere

Key Trends White Unemployment: Steady Rate : The unemployment rate for white workers has remained largely consistent, fluctuating between 3.1% to 3.8% from April 2023 to August 2024 . This shows stability with no major spikes, indicating that the white workforce has seen fewer disruptions during this period. Recent Increase : There's a slight uptick in July 2024 and August 2024 at 3.8% , but it's  within a stable range. Black/African American Unemployment: Higher Rates : The unemployment rate for Black workers is significantly higher, moving from 4.8% in April 2023 to 6.1% in August 2024 . This continues to reflect the long-standing disparity in unemployment rates compared to white workers. Fluctuations : There’s a notable rise in March 2024 where Black unemployment spiked to 6.4% , followed by slight drops and increases throughout the summer. These fluctuations may be attributed to sector-specific changes that disproportionately affect Black workers. Asian Unemployment: Lo...

Exploring the Real-Time Crime Index (2018-2023). Leon Ilgner, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Nürnberg-Erlangen.

Real Time Crime Index: Violent Crimes, 2018 to 2024. Perceptions on crime and safety are pressing issues in the US. In an attempt to illustrate the current state, the Real-Time Crime Index  (RTCI) was created. The RTCI samples crime data reported by law enforcement agencies across the country in real time. It purportedly measures trends by standardizing data collection. Data from RTCI shows that the crime category with the highest increase is motor vehicle theft, with an overall rise of 88%. Following this are the categories of murder (26%), aggravated assault (16%), violent crime (5%), and property crime (2%). However, over these six years, the total number of crimes also decreased in some areas. Burglary shows the highest decrease overall at -22%, followed by robbery (-13%), rape (-11%), and theft (-7%). The analysis of this data revealed that nationwide, the crime rate is highest in the third quarter and lowest in the first quarter. Additionally, July statistically sees the most...

Exploring Europe by Rail: A Sustainable Journey Across Nine Countries. Gregory Savioz-Buck, University of Sherbrooke, Canada.

This summer, my partner and I decided to travel across Europe, using only trains to reduce our environmental impact. For several years now, I’ve struggled with flying due to its significant pollution. However, I am a passionate traveler, so I’ve been looking for ways to continue exploring while minimizing my carbon footprint. As we considered more sustainable travel options, we concluded that utilizing the European rail network—superior in quality compared to the American system—was the best solution. The two images below show the American and European rail networks, clearly illustrating that the European network offers far more choices. Here is the itinerary we followed in the summer of 2024. To get to Europe, we had no choice but to fly. Our flight departed from Boston and landed in Amsterdam, with a layover in Iceland. However, once in Europe, we traveled exclusively by train: Amsterdam (Netherlands), Warsaw (Poland), Krakow (Poland), Prague (Czech Republic), Bratislava (Slovakia), ...