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Exploring the Real-Time Crime Index (2018-2023). Leon Ilgner, Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Nürnberg-Erlangen.

Real Time Crime Index: Violent Crimes, 2018 to 2024.

Perceptions on crime and safety are pressing issues in the US. In an attempt to illustrate the current state, the Real-Time Crime Index (RTCI) was created. The RTCI samples crime data reported by law enforcement agencies across the country in real time. It purportedly measures trends by standardizing data collection.

Data from RTCI shows that the crime category with the highest increase is motor vehicle theft, with an overall rise of 88%. Following this are the categories of murder (26%), aggravated assault (16%), violent crime (5%), and property crime (2%). However, over these six years, the total number of crimes also decreased in some areas. Burglary shows the highest decrease overall at -22%, followed by robbery (-13%), rape (-11%), and theft (-7%).

The analysis of this data revealed that nationwide, the crime rate is highest in the third quarter and lowest in the first quarter. Additionally, July statistically sees the most crimes.

Effect of the Covid-19 Lockdown:

The data also indicates that the Covid-19 lockdown did not negatively influence the total number of crimes; in fact, the opposite was true. During the lockdown in 2020, the number of murders increased by 37.95%, marking the sharpest increase in the analyzed timeframe.

Effect on Gross Domestic Product:

Furthermore, a correlation between GDP growth and the number of crimes could not be proven. How this correlation might change if the economy enters a recession, rather than just experiencing supply and demand shocks, remains to be seen.

Summary:

The Real Time Crime Index may points the way to a number of possible improvements in macroeconomic indicators. The methodology behind the index needs to be carefully examined, however. We will continue to explore this type of indicator. 

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