The January 2026 Employment Situation report has been widely cited to suggest improving labor-market conditions across demographic groups. But a close reading of the only place where race × sex unemployment is fully disaggregated suggests that the reported drop in Black women’s unemployment is statistical noise at best and a reporting artifact at worst , not evidence of real labor-market improvement. Below is why the headline interpretation does not hold up. 1. The “Improvement” Exists Only After Seasonal Adjustment The apparent month-to-month decline for Black women appears only in the seasonally adjusted data series . The not seasonally adjusted data—the raw survey data—do not show a clean or convincing improvement. This matters because: Seasonal factors for small demographic subgroups are volatile and frequently revised. Seasonal adjustment is calibrated to historical patterns that do not reliably fit Black women’s labor-market dynamics , which are more sensitive to sector...
Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson spoke at Brookings on Friday Feb 6, 2026. His key point was that, while inflation is still at 3%, already above the target of 2%, he expects inflation to fall as the tariffs make their full way through the system. In his judgment, this is a one-time price level change rather than an ongoing price increase spiral since he believes inflation expectations remain well anchored. Key Drivers The pandemic showed that supply-side factors such as labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and commodity price spikes following conflicts like the Ukraine war, are crucial. New tariff policies, immigration restrictions that cut the supply of labor and large AI-driven infrastructure investments are some of the current day challenges. China, Canada A panel discussion addressed the electronic vehicle (EV) industry and the evolving trade relationship between China, Canada, and the United States. Panelists noted that China’s slowing domestic economy ha...