Missing annual inflation data, rising food costs, and persistent service inflation raise new questions about the economic outlook. The October 2026 Consumer Price Index offers some relief, but the underlying numbers suggest that inflation remains a serious economic threat, particularly for Black and minority-owned businesses. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in October , down from 0.6 percent in September. However, core inflation, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3 percent for the third consecutive month . Inflation has not been defeated. More troubling, BLS could not publish most year-over-year inflation figures because the October 2025 government shutdown prevented the collection of necessary data. This creates an unusual gap in one of America's most important economic indicators. The October Inflation Numbers The October report reveals several continuing pressures: Headline CPI: +0.4%, compared with +0.6% in September. Cor...
The October 2026 employment report looks surprisingly strong on the surface. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 165,000 jobs , while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% . We are not convinced that the reported payroll number fully reflects underlying labor-market conditions, and we believe the October estimate could be revised downward in the coming months, since monthly payroll figures are preliminary estimates , based partly on incomplete employer responses and statistical adjustments that are revised as additional information becomes available. A Big Jump From a Weak Trend The 165,000 October payroll gain is striking because BLS reports that employment had increased by an average of only 48,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months . October's gain was also concentrated in a few sectors. Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs , health care added 42,000 , and transportation and warehousing added 25,000 . Toget...