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Observing Trump vs. Cook as my first hearing at the Supreme Court. Sol Tran. Whitman College.

As an economics student, I have spent countless hours studying and analyzing Federal Reserve policies in textbooks, but nothing prepared me for the chance to go to a Supreme Court hearing concerning those policies. The case I attended, Donald J. Trump, et al. v. Lisa D. Cook , centers on whether Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board governor Lisa Cook. The hearing was two hours of arguments. Solicitor General D. John Sauer, arguing for President Trump, spent time detailing how Lisa Cook allegedly made conflicting representations on two mortgage applications within a two-week period in 2021.  What impressed me the most was Justice Sotomayor’s intervention. She systematically dismantled the government’s emergency posture argument. Firstly, the president by his own admission, cannot fire Cook for policy disagreements. Secondly, Cook has not been incompetent or negligent while in office; the grounds for removal concerns pre-office conduct. Lastly, the Fed’s independence is important, an...
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Wholesale Price Trends and What the December 2025 PPI Means for Black and Minority Firms

The Producer Price Index (PPI) —the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ measure of price changes received by U.S. producers—provides an early look at inflation pressures that ripple through our economy long before they show up in consumer prices. On January 30, 2026, the BLS reported that the PPI for final demand rose 0.5% in December 2025 , with prices for services rising sharply and goods prices essentially unchanged. On an annual basis, producer prices climbed about 3.0% in 2025 after rising 3.5% in 2024. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) While these headline figures matter for macroeconomic policy and markets, the real question for small business owners—especially Black and minority entrepreneurs —is how these wholesale price dynamics intersect with their costs, pricing power, industry exposures, and geographic realities. 1. PPI: A Leading Indicator for Business Costs in Key Industries The PPI covers industry-level price changes across thousands of goods and services, letting us see which s...

Consumer Confidence Is Cracking at the Top — and That’s a Warning for Investors

For much of the past two years, U.S. economic growth has rested on an uncomfortable truth: it has been carried disproportionately by high-income households . While inflation, housing costs, and credit tightening constrained most consumers, those earning over $100,000 continued to spend—and in doing so, propped up GDP growth. That support is now wavering. According to the January 2026 Macro Update from Morning Consult, consumer confidence among high-income earners has fallen sharply and unusually fast, prompting a downgrade of sentiment risk for this group from Medium to High . Over just 16 days, the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for households earning more than $100,000 declined by 17.4 points , a 12.3% drop in only 30 days —one of the steepest declines in the series’ history. For impact investors, this is not a curiosity. It is a leading indicator . The Consumer-Led Growth Model Is Showing Its Limits Morning Consult’s data make clear why this shift matters. In 2025, nearly all ...

UPDATED ANALYSIS: Q3 2025 GDP — 4.4% Growth? More Questions Than Answers.

On January 22, 2026 , the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its updated estimate of U.S. economic growth for the third quarter of 2025 — adjusting the earlier preliminary number upward from 4.3% to 4.4% . ( Bureau of Economic Analysis ) This revision confirms the economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years , fueled by continued strength in consumer spending, exports, government outlays, and investment .  However, when we step beyond headlines and into the underlying data environment, a more nuanced and cautionary picture emerges — one that affirms much of the skepticism in our earlier analysis . 📈 What BEA’s Updated Estimate Says According to BEA: Real GDP grew 4.4% annually in Q3 2025 (July–September).  This is up from the initial 4.3% estimate and above economists’ expectations.  The increase was driven by consumer spending, business investment, exports, and government spending — while imports declined, which mechanically boosts GDP. Industry data show bro...

Trump vs Cook: Questioning the independence of the Fed. Amza Togore (Trinity College)

On January 21, 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States convened in Washington, D.C., for oral arguments in the high-stakes case of Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312). The proceedings, which began at 10:03 a.m. before Chief Justice Roberts and the Associate Justices, center on President Donald J. Trump's emergency application to stay a preliminary injunction that reinstated Lisa D. Cook to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The central legal battle involves whether the President has the authority to remove a Federal Reserve governor for "cause" based on alleged misconduct that occurred before her tenure, specifically, claims of "deceit or gross negligence" regarding conflicting mortgage applications submitted in 2021. Solicitor General D. John Sauer represented the Applicants (the President), while Paul D. Clement argued on behalf of Respondent Lisa Cook. Amza Togore at the Supreme Cour t The core of the dispute rests on the definition of "ca...

Trump v. Cook. Riley McGlynn (Siena College)

Le Nhu Ngoc Tran (Whittier College), Amza Togore (Trinity College) and Riley McGlynn (Siena College) at the US Supreme Court   On January 21st, 2026, I and my fellow interns at Creative Investment Research attended Oral Arguments at the Supreme Court of the United States concerning Trump v. Cook. The purpose of the oral arguments was to determine whether Donald Trump's attempts to fire Lisa Cook from her position as Governor of the Federal Reserve were lawful. The defense for this firing rested on allegations of mortgage fraud.  My perspective on how the Court operates, and specifically how they operated during this case is that it overall is smooth and straight to the point, getting deep into the case. The Justices asked thorough and relevant questions during the proceeding, while making sure the lawyers appearing before them  remained on topic, clear and concise. To give an example, early on during the argument by D. John Sauer the solicitor general and the man defe...

The Great Pretender - Why Supremacist Politics Thrive in a Stagnant Economy

Watching American politics from the outside, it’s easy to hear people asking: how did this happen? How does a billionaire brand himself as anti-elite, win major support among impoverished Hispanic voters he openly targets, and keep pulling poor white working-class Americans into a coalition that always acts against their economic interests? One explanation—outlined in this video —is that voting behavior is frequently driven less by policy and more by emotional and social logic: protection, fear, disgust, hierarchy, and status threat . That framework is useful. But it becomes truly persuasive only when we anchor it in the long-run economic shifts that made these emotions politically usable. This analysis connects that “protector politics” thesis to hard economic data — income stagnation, manufacturing job loss, union decline , and the Black–White median income gap —to show why identity and status narratives keep winning against technocratic policy talk. 1) The Great Pretender/Prote...