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Powell is right to stay at the Fed; the central bank needs continuity

American Banker Newspaper BankThink: Powell is right to stay at the Fed; the central bank needs continuity. By William Michael Cunningham Published May 01, 2026, 7:30 a.m. EDT Jerome Powell has indicated that he will buck tradition by remaining on the Federal Reserve Board after his term as chair expires. Bloomberg News • Key insight: Jerome Powell's decision to remain on the Federal Reserve Board is not a break with tradition for its own sake. It is a response to conditions that justify it. • What's at stake: Recent developments make clear that the institutional guardrails surrounding the Federal Reserve System are being actively tested. • Forward look: By choosing to remain at the Fed, Powell is reinforcing the principle that central bank independence is a core institutional requirement that must be actively protected. This week marks a pivotal moment for the Federal Reserve. With Kevin Warsh advancing toward confirmation and Jerome Powell concluding what is likely h...

AI, Q1 2026 GDP, and Minority-Owned Businesses

The latest data on U.S. economic growth tells a story that looks strong on the surface—but uneven underneath. First-quarter 2026 GDP growth came in at roughly 2%, with a major driver being a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment (1.5%). Data centers, server infrastructure, and software systems are powering a new wave of private-sector expansion, with nonresidential investment rising sharply—up nearly 8.7% in the quarter. This is not a typical business cycle story. It is a structural shift. The question is not whether AI is driving growth. It is who is being left out. AI as a Capital-Intensive GDP Engine AI’s current contribution to GDP is heavily concentrated in capital formation: Massive buildout of data centers Explosive demand for server equipment and chips Increased spending on cloud and AI software infrastructure Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle are leading this expansion. From a GDP accounting standpoint, this shows up as a surge in private in...

IMF Spring Meeting: Regional Economic Outlook. Sol Tran, Whitman College.

The IMF/World Bank Annual Spring Meetings ran from April 13 to 17, and I was fortunate to have the opportunity to listen to several of the Regional Economic Outlook press briefings that accompanied them, including briefings from the Asia and Pacific Department, Africa Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, European Department, and Western Hemisphere Department. Overview: The war in the Middle East rewrote everything Every single briefing, whether it was on Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East itself, Europe, or the Western Hemisphere returned to one main factor: the war that broke out in the Middle East as of February 2026. This changed the economic forecast in ways that nobody modeled just months earlier. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz, though which roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply and more than a quarter of the global liquid natural gas (LNG) passes, came close to a standstill. The European gas prices rose by roughly 60 percent...

The Federal Reserve’s “Troubling Reality” for the Wealthy Is a Warning for Everyone Else — Especially Black America

Figure 1 - Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA): Wealth Concentration, Pandemic Bump and Post 2022 Reversal. DFA data via FRED. FAR Stress Ratio is a CIR-Developed metric: Top 1% Share divided by the Bottom 50% Share. The latest report highlighted in Federal Reserve System data and discussed in this TheStreet article ( TheStreet ) makes a stark point: wealthy Americans are pulling further ahead at a pace “with no historical precedent,” reshaping how the economy functions beneath seemingly resilient headline numbers. This is not just a story about the rich getting richer. It is evidence of a structural transformation of the U.S. economy — one that I have warned about for decades in my books , regulatory filings , and amicus briefs . The implications are particularly severe for Black and minority-owned firms, whose wealth base is thinner, whose capital access is more constrained, and whose exposure to macroeconomic shocks is higher. A K-Shaped Economy Is Now...

March 2026 CPI Jumps — What It Means for Black and Minority Firms

The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a sharp increase in inflation , signaling renewed economic pressure on Black- and minority-owned firms. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that consumer prices rose 3.3% over the 12 months ending in March , up from 2.4% in February . Core CPI rose 2.6% , while energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year and food increased 2.7% . ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) This represents a meaningful re-acceleration in inflation , with the largest increases concentrated in categories that disproportionately affect minority businesses and the communities they serve. Why the March CPI Is Especially Important This CPI release changes the economic narrative: Inflation re-accelerated Energy costs spiked sharply Core inflation remains sticky Food prices continue rising This combination creates a double squeeze on Black and minority firms: Higher operating costs Reduced customer purchasing power Industry Impact on Black and Minority Firms Black and mino...

The Number of Unemployed Black Women Fell by 113,000 Persons in March, 2026

The US unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline. BLS reported that the number of unemployed Black women fell from 804,000 to 691,000, by 113,000 persons in March, 2026. Note that the reported industries with job gains do not match industries where Black women are employed. Overall payroll employment increasing by 178,000 would mean 63% of the new jobs went to Black women. This is unlikely and indicates a need for further review. In other words, we do not trust these initial numbers... Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian (3.7 percent) decreased in March. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (13.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (7.1 percent), or Hispanic (4.8 percent) showed li...