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The Trumpsqueeze: Higher Prices, Higher Interest Rates, Fewer Jobs

The U.S. economy is entering a difficult phase that deserves its own name: the Trumpsqueeze . The Trumpsqueeze describes an economy in which households and businesses are simultaneously pressured by elevated prices, high borrowing costs, slower employment growth, and weakening wage momentum . It is not exactly stagflation. Economic output can still grow. Corporate profits can remain strong. Financial markets can even rise. But underneath those headline numbers, consumers and smaller businesses can find themselves increasingly squeezed. For Black and minority-owned businesses, that squeeze can be even more severe. What is the Trumpsqueeze? The Trumpsqueeze can be summarized as: Higher operating costs + higher borrowing costs + slower hiring and wage growth = shrinking economic room to maneuver. The latest data illustrate the problem. The U.S. economy added only 29,000 jobs in September 2026 , while the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% . The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised Jul...
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September Jobs Report Confirms a Weakening U.S. Labor Market. Black Unemployment Increases From 6.0% to 7.0%.

The September 2026 employment report confirms what we have been w arning about for months : the U.S. labor market is considerably weaker than headline economic narratives have suggested. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by only 29,000 jobs in September , while the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2 percent . Employment in every major industry was essentially unchanged. That is an extremely weak payroll number. Even more important, BLS revised previously reported employment sharply downward. July payroll growth was revised from +21,000 to -10,000 , while August was revised from +162,000 to +133,000 . Together, July and August employment was 60,000 jobs lower than previously reported . This is particularly noteworthy because after the August report we warned that the initially reported 162,000 payroll increase might be revised downward . That has now occurred. Black Unemployment Jumps to 7.0 Percent The most troubling number in the Se...
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GDP Revised Higher, but the Economy Still Looks Very Different for Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

The U.S. economy was considerably stronger in the second quarter of 2026 than previously reported. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on 9/30/26 that real GDP increased at a 2.2% annual rate during the second quarter , a significant upward revision from the previous estimate of 1.5%. First-quarter growth was also revised higher, from 2.1% to 2.5% as part of BEA's annual update. On the surface, this is good news. But as we have repeatedly noted, the headline GDP number does not necessarily describe the economy experienced by Black-owned businesses, minority-owned firms, small businesses, or the communities in which many of these companies operate. The underlying numbers tell a more complicated story. The Economy Was Stronger Than We Thought The 0.7 percentage-point upward revision to second-quarter GDP primarily reflected stronger estimates for business investment, consumer spending and government spending. Even more significant, real final sales to private domestic purchaser...
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The Future of Health Forum. Julia von Rueden, Heinrich Heine University.

On September 15, I attended Semafor's Future of Health Forum at Gallup, which brought together leaders from healthcare, business and policy to discuss how innovation can make healthcare more accessible, affordable and transparent. Two senators, two very different approaches What I found especially interesting was how differently the two senators approached the same topic. While Sen. Andy Kim focused on expanding access to care, Sen. Bill Cassidy framed the issue mainly around costs and transparency. Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) spoke first. He presented his MediKids proposal, which would guarantee health coverage for every American under 26. The bill would automatically enroll children in Medicaid's early screening and preventive care programs at birth. Kim's argument is simple: healthier kids become healthier adults, so investing early pays off later. He insisted that the bill is not just a messaging exercise but something meant to pass, and he sees it as part of a larger Democr...
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Fed Rate Hike Raises the Cost of Capital for Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, increasing the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00% . The vote was unanimous.  For Black and minority-owned businesses the consequences deserve closer examination. Following the Fed announcement, major U.S. banks increased their prime lending rate from 6.75% to 7.00% . Prime is particularly important to small businesses because many commercial lines of credit, working-capital facilities and SBA loans are either directly or indirectly tied to it. The result is straightforward: the cost of business capital just went up. Estimated Black/Minority Business Borrowing Costs Before and After the Hike The table below illustrates the immediate effect on small-business borrowing. These are not race-specific quoted rates—but lenders are known to have a separate unpublished “Black business rate.” The table below illustrates rates using common prime-linked financing products. For a minority-owned ...
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What does AI owe Humanity? Julia von Rueden, Heinrich Heine University

Reflections from Georgetown's “Magnifica Humanitas” Panel, by Julia Johanna von Rüden.  On September 9, I attended "AI, Catholic Social Teaching, and Pope Leo's Invitation to Dialogue with the World" at Georgetown University, a conversation that impacted my own ethical perspective on AI more than I had expected . The event, convened by Georgetown's new president, Eduardo Peñalver, was moderated by Kim Daniels, director of the university's Initiative on Catholic Social Thought and Public Life. The panel brought together Archbishop Gabriele Caccia (Apostolic Nuncio to the United States), Vilas Dhar (Patrick J. McGovern Foundation), Molly Kinder (Breakwater Initiative), Anna Rowlands (Durham University), and Jasmine Sun (The Atlantic).  The anchor for the discussion was Pope Leo XIV's recent encyclical, Magnifica Humanitas ("Magnificent Humanity"), which calls on institutions, especially universities, to help ensure that AI serves the common good ra...
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August CPI: Inflation Accelerates, Raising New Concerns for Minority Businesses

The August 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) provides another reason to be cautious about declaring victory over inflation. The CPI increased 0.4 percent in August , four times July's 0.1 percent increase. Annual inflation remained at 3.4 percent , while core CPI increased 0.3 percent for the month. The relatively stable annual headline masks a critical development: inflation accelerated during August. Energy Is Again the Warning Sign Energy prices increased 2.1 percent in August, while gasoline jumped 3.9 percent . Gasoline alone accounted for more than one-third of the monthly CPI increase. Gasoline prices are now 27.4 percent higher than a year ago , according to US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This matters for transportation, logistics, construction, food distribution, delivery and other businesses with significant fuel exposure. For these firms, a 3.4 percent national inflation rate bears little resemblance to their actual increase in operating costs. M...
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