Bankers are trained to think about risk in familiar terms: interest rates, credit quality, capital ratios and macroeconomic cycles. What they are less accustomed to modeling—but increasingly cannot ignore—is the economic cost of civic disruption. Recent events in Minneapolis illustrate why. An amicus brief I filed in federal litigation involving the Minneapolis immigration enforcement program , Operation Metro Surge, documents $275–$320 million in cumulative economic harm tied to prolonged civic unrest, business shutdowns, school disruptions and emergency public-sector costs. These losses are not abstract. They translate directly into revenue volatility, labor-market disruption, impaired small-business cash flow and declining commercial corridor performance—all of which matter to banks. Small businesses in affected areas experienced revenue declines of 50% to 80% on disruption days, while public-sector overtime and emergency coordination costs exceeded $5 million per month. The burden ...
Minnesota has been at the center of national attention — not for its lakes or its winters, but for the economic earthquake rippling through its communities. Cities like Minneapolis and St. Paul have seen repeated protests, shutdowns, and demonstrations tied to federal enforcement actions. What began as local unrest has become a national protest wave , with activists, students, and workers taking to the streets in dozens of cities. These events aren’t isolated headlines — they are economic phenomena with real, measurable impact. As economists and impact investors, we are trained to look for systemic signals — not just speculation. In my recent research and expert filing in federal court, I modeled the economic effects of this multifaceted disruption, and the findings are sobering: Minnesota’s economy could face between $270 million and $400 million in cumulative harm by the end of 2026 — and that’s a conservative estimate . 1. What’s Happening on the Ground From Minneapolis to San An...