This Week in ESG and Impact Investing

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Why The Jan 2026 “Drop” in Black Women’s Unemployment Raises Red Flags

The January 2026 Employment Situation report has been widely cited to suggest improving labor-market conditions across demographic groups. But a close reading of the only place where race × sex unemployment is fully disaggregated suggests that the reported drop in Black women’s unemployment is statistical noise at best and a reporting artifact at worst , not evidence of real labor-market improvement. Below is why the headline interpretation does not hold up. 1. The “Improvement” Exists Only After Seasonal Adjustment The apparent month-to-month decline for Black women appears only in the seasonally adjusted data series . The not seasonally adjusted data—the raw survey data—do not show a clean or convincing improvement. This matters because: Seasonal factors for small demographic subgroups are volatile and frequently revised. Seasonal adjustment is calibrated to historical patterns that do not reliably fit Black women’s labor-market dynamics , which are more sensitive to sector...

Brookings Event: Supply-Side Factors and Inflation. Sol Tran, Whitman College.

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson spoke at Brookings on Friday Feb 6, 2026. His key point was that, while inflation is still at 3%, already above the target of 2%, he expects inflation to fall as the tariffs make their full way through the system. In his judgment, this is a one-time price level change rather than an ongoing price increase spiral since he believes inflation expectations remain well anchored. Key Drivers The pandemic showed that supply-side factors such as labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and commodity price spikes following conflicts like the Ukraine war, are crucial. New tariff policies, immigration restrictions that cut the supply of labor and large AI-driven infrastructure investments are some of the current day challenges. China, Canada A panel discussion addressed the electronic vehicle (EV) industry and the evolving trade relationship between China, Canada, and the United States. Panelists noted that China’s slowing domestic economy ha...

Minneapolis is not an outlier. It is a case study in risk evaluation.

Bankers are trained to think about risk in familiar terms: interest rates, credit quality, capital ratios and macroeconomic cycles. What they are less accustomed to modeling—but increasingly cannot ignore—is the economic cost of civic disruption. Recent events in Minneapolis illustrate why. An amicus brief I filed in federal litigation involving the Minneapolis immigration enforcement program , Operation Metro Surge, documents $275–$320 million in cumulative economic harm tied to prolonged civic unrest, business shutdowns, school disruptions and emergency public-sector costs. These losses are not abstract. They translate directly into revenue volatility, labor-market disruption, impaired small-business cash flow and declining commercial corridor performance—all of which matter to banks. Small businesses in affected areas experienced revenue declines of 50% to 80% on disruption days, while public-sector overtime and emergency coordination costs exceeded $5 million per month. The burden ...

When Economics Meets Civic Duty: Why Disruption in Minnesota Matters to Every Investor

Minnesota has been at the center of national attention — not for its lakes or its winters, but for the economic earthquake rippling through its communities. Cities like Minneapolis and St. Paul have seen repeated protests, shutdowns, and demonstrations tied to federal enforcement actions. What began as local unrest has become a national protest wave , with activists, students, and workers taking to the streets in dozens of cities. These events aren’t isolated headlines — they are economic phenomena with real, measurable impact. As economists and impact investors, we are trained to look for systemic signals — not just speculation. In my recent research and expert filing in federal court, I modeled the economic effects of this multifaceted disruption, and the findings are sobering: Minnesota’s economy could face between $270 million and $400 million in cumulative harm by the end of 2026 — and that’s a conservative estimate . 1. What’s Happening on the Ground From Minneapolis to San An...

Spot The Difference

Which group best represents the future? Which group do you trust?

Observing Trump vs. Cook as my first hearing at the Supreme Court. Sol Tran. Whitman College.

As an economics student, I have spent countless hours studying and analyzing Federal Reserve policies in textbooks, but nothing prepared me for the chance to go to a Supreme Court hearing concerning those policies. The case I attended, Donald J. Trump, et al. v. Lisa D. Cook , centers on whether Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board governor Lisa Cook. The hearing was two hours of arguments. Solicitor General D. John Sauer, arguing for President Trump, spent time detailing how Lisa Cook allegedly made conflicting representations on two mortgage applications within a two-week period in 2021. What impressed me the most was Justice Sotomayor’s intervention. She systematically dismantled the government’s emergency posture argument. Firstly, the president by his own admission, cannot fire Cook for policy disagreements. Secondly, Cook has not been incompetent or negligent while in office; the grounds for removal concerns pre-office conduct. Lastly, the Fed’s independence is important, an...