The latest data on U.S. economic growth tells a story that looks strong on the surface—but uneven underneath. First-quarter 2026 GDP growth came in at roughly 2%, with a major driver being a surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment (1.5%). Data centers, server infrastructure, and software systems are powering a new wave of private-sector expansion, with nonresidential investment rising sharply—up nearly 8.7% in the quarter. This is not a typical business cycle story. It is a structural shift. The question is not whether AI is driving growth. It is who is being left out. AI as a Capital-Intensive GDP Engine AI’s current contribution to GDP is heavily concentrated in capital formation: Massive buildout of data centers Explosive demand for server equipment and chips Increased spending on cloud and AI software infrastructure Companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Oracle are leading this expansion. From a GDP accounting standpoint, this shows up as a surge in private in...
The IMF/World Bank Annual Spring Meetings ran from April 13 to 17, and I was fortunate to have the opportunity to listen to several of the Regional Economic Outlook press briefings that accompanied them, including briefings from the Asia and Pacific Department, Africa Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, European Department, and Western Hemisphere Department. Overview: The war in the Middle East rewrote everything Every single briefing, whether it was on Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East itself, Europe, or the Western Hemisphere returned to one main factor: the war that broke out in the Middle East as of February 2026. This changed the economic forecast in ways that nobody modeled just months earlier. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz, though which roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply and more than a quarter of the global liquid natural gas (LNG) passes, came close to a standstill. The European gas prices rose by roughly 60 percent...