At POLITICO’s Economy Summit on March 25, 2026, the conversation around trade captured something bigger than tariffs alone: the sense that economic policy is now inseparable from political struggle. The summit included a trade panel, “What’s Next for Trump’s Tariffs?,” with Greta Peisch, Everett Eissenstat, and Eugene Laney, along with a separate conversation with Peter Navarro. That lineup mattered. It signaled that trade is no longer being discussed only as a technical issue for economists or lawyers but as a live political battleground involving executive power, business strategy, and the price Americans pay for everyday life. What makes this moment especially important is that it comes after a major legal shock. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling that Congress, not the president, holds the authority to impose tariffs of that scope. But...
The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release did not just come in elevated—it came in decisively hot. A 0.7% monthly increase, following 0.5% in January, is a pattern. And when you annualize the recent momentum, you are looking at 4–5% annualized inflation pressure. Remember, PPI is not a prediction. It is a diagnostic tool. It tells us where inflation stress is forming inside the economy—before it becomes visible to consumers. And right now, that stress is building quietly but broadly. Goods prices are reaccelerating. Service costs are not cooling. Food costs moved higher. That combination matters more than the level of inflation. It is the distribution and direction that is important. We have now moved from: 0.4% → 0.5% → 0.7% Can We Use This to Predict Inflation? Yes — But Carefully If we take recent monthly PPI data and run a simple projection: [(1-mDec)(1-mJan)(1-mFeb)]**4 - 1] We get annualized inflation from 4 to 5 %. This is a meaningful, but PPI does not translate cleanl...