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August PPI Sends a Warning to Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

The August 2026 Producer Price Index sent a warning to Black and minority-owned businesses: business inflation is accelerating again. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that producer prices increased 0.4 percent in August and 5.4 percent over the past year . Final-demand goods prices jumped 1.1 percent , while energy prices increased 4.2 percent . One number is particularly concerning: diesel fuel prices surged 24.1 percent in August. Transportation and warehousing prices increased 2.3 percent, while truck freight transportation rose 2.0 percent. These increases directly affect minority-owned trucking, construction, delivery, distribution and logistics firms. The Inflation Pipeline Remains Hot Another warning: prices for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 1.8 percent in August and 11.5 percent over the past year . These are costs moving through the production pipeline. This implies that businesses will continue facing higher supplier prices even if some headl...
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August Jobs Report: Stronger Headline, Weaker Reality

The August 2026 Employment Situation report looks stronger than recent months, but we believe the headline payroll number should be treated cautiously. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 jobs in August , while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 percent . That is a significant improvement over the recent trend, but we are not convinced the number fully reflects underlying labor-market conditions. One reason is concentration. About 101,000 of the 162,000 reported jobs—roughly 62 percent—came from just two categories: food services and drinking places and local government education . BLS also noted that the education increase largely offset a decline in the prior month, suggesting that timing and seasonal adjustment may be influencing the headline figure. Much of the rest of the economy showed limited hiring. Employment changed little in wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, profess...

Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Confirms Risks Noted Earlier

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s August 28, 2026 Jackson Hole speech deserves careful attention because it provides the clearest indication yet of how he intends to define Federal Reserve credibility. Warsh declared that the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target is “firm” and “fixed,” said current inflation remains too high and concluded that the Fed’s “predominant focus right now should be on prices.” He also made clear that he regards short-term interest rates as the Fed’s predominant monetary-policy tool and unconventional interventions as appropriate principally for genuine crises. Warsh and Rate Hikes: CIR On Point On July 29, Creative Investment Research (CIR) issued a warning titled “Federal Reserve May Consider Rate Hike to Establish Chairman Warsh’s Inflation-fighting Credibility.” We argued that Warsh faced an unusual institutional problem: as a newly installed chairman operating amid intense political pressure for lower rates, he might feel compelled to establi...

The $40 Trillion Debt Crisis Was a Choice — and Black America Will Pay a Disproportionate Price

The United States has now crossed a fiscal threshold that once seemed unimaginable: federal debt exceeds $40 trillion .  Reuters reports that approximately $32.3 trillion is debt held by the public , with another roughly $7.8 trillion in intragovernmental holdings . It also reports that federal debt has increased by approximately $11.6 trillion during Donald Trump's two terms to date . For decades, Republican fiscal policy has combined large tax cuts with continued federal spending and then used the resulting deficits to justify demands for reductions in domestic programs. That pattern stretches from Ronald Reagan through George W. Bush and Donald Trump. The assertion that Republicans as a whole deliberately want the United States to default cannot be dismissed . Concerns about deliberate default strategies are not imaginary. In May 2023, Donald Trump publicly urged congressional Republicans to allow the United States to default if Democrats did not accept spending cuts. We argue...

Senate Banking Hearing Overview: Capital Access for Small Businesses from a Gen-Z Perspective. Namrud Gemu, Wheaton High School

Mr. Gemu On August 6, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing titled "Empowering Main Street by Unlocking Access to Capital." The hearing focused on legislative and regulatory proposals aimed at making it easier for entrepreneurs and small businesses to build wealth and access capital outside major financial hubs. The core debate of the hearing revolved around how small businesses across America secure funding.  Right now, access to startup capital is heavily concentrated in major financial hubs like Wall Street and Silicon Valley. If you are an entrepreneur operating outside those elite net works, getting a traditional bank loan or securing venture capital can be a massive uphill battle.  To address this, committee members proposed modernizing regulations related to those established under the 2012 JOBS Act to make it easier for community banks and credit unions to lend money to local founders.  The discussion also touched on expanding who qualifies as an "acc...

July PPI Is Flat, but Black and Minority-Owned Businesses Are Not Out of the Inflation Woods

The July 2026 Producer Price Index offers what initially looks like encouraging news: producer prices were unchanged during the month. But for Black-owned and other minority-owned businesses, the headline number does not tell the whole story. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July after declining 0.1 percent in June and increasing 0.5 percent in May. Yet producer prices remain 4.7 percent higher than a year ago .  Cost categories most relevant to minority businesses continue to rise. For minority firms operating with smaller cash reserves, limited access to affordable credit, and less bargaining power with suppliers, the difference between "zero inflation" and continued underlying cost pressure is significant. Construction Costs Jump 2.2% Prices for final demand construction increased 2.2 percent in July. That matters because construction and contracting represent important areas of minority business a...

July CPI Looks Better — Perhaps Too Conveniently Better

The July 2026 Consumer Price Index appears, at first glance, to deliver exactly the inflation story policymakers and financial markets would like to see. The Consumer Price Index increased just 0.1 percent in July , following a 0.4 percent decline in June. Annual inflation edged down from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent , while core CPI slowed to 2.5 percent year-over-year . That is certainly better than the inflation surge seen earlier this year. But the July report deserves more scrutiny than the headline numbers are likely to receive. The issue is that the apparent improvement depends heavily on statistical adjustments, volatile energy prices, and methodological choices that can make a small monthly change look more definitive than it really is. For Black- and minority-owned businesses, which make decisions based on actual fuel bills, rents, insurance premiums, food costs, and borrowing expenses, the distinction matters. The Headline Number Is Doing a Lot of Work BLS reported a seasonall...