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The Real Risk is not Inflation: it's Civil War

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We note the Federal Reserve now expects to "end its pandemic-era bond purchases in March (2022) and pave the way for three quarter-percentage-point interest rate hikes by the end of 2022.."  While we agree the Fed is correct in observing that, for whites, "the economy no longer needs increasing amounts of policy support," specific sectors and demographics require ongoing support. The key skill of a central bank in the current environment is identifying these demographic sectors and providing targeted, non-inflationary support. There are a number of ways to do so, but, given the lack of relevant African American diversity on and at the Board, we do not expect the Fed to be familiar with these techniques. (We suggest they see our Maternal Mortality Reparation Facility for Black Women. ) We continue to believe that the recent inflation spike is due to fear and greed-based labor and supply chain disruptions resulting from the unprecedented and ongoing COVID crisis. This