This Week in ESG and Impact Investing

Creative Investment Research has revised its February 2025 unemployment forecast ahead of the March 7, 2025, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report, incorporating worsening economic conditions reflected in the latest Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow projections. The U.S. economy is now expected to shrink by 2.8% in Q1 2025, a sharp downward revision from -1.5% just days earlier, signaling deeper-than-expected economic contraction and potentially accelerating job losses across key industries. The latest data show that personal consumption expenditures growth has fallen to 0.0%, indicating a near standstill in consumer spending, while private fixed investment growth has dropped to 0.1%, reflecting a sharp pullback in business investment. These factors are expected to have a direct impact on the labor market, leading to a more pronounced rise in unemployment than initially forecast. Revised Unemployment Forecast for February 2025 1. Overall Unemployment Rate Likely to Rise to 4.2% An inc...

Key Trends White Unemployment: Steady Rate : The unemployment rate for white workers has remained largely consistent, fluctuating between 3.1% to 3.8% from April 2023 to August 2024 . This shows stability with no major spikes, indicating that the white workforce has seen fewer disruptions during this period. Recent Increase : There's a slight uptick in July 2024 and August 2024 at 3.8% , but it's  within a stable range. Black/African American Unemployment: Higher Rates : The unemployment rate for Black workers is significantly higher, moving from 4.8% in April 2023 to 6.1% in August 2024 . This continues to reflect the long-standing disparity in unemployment rates compared to white workers. Fluctuations : There’s a notable rise in March 2024 where Black unemployment spiked to 6.4% , followed by slight drops and increases throughout the summer. These fluctuations may be attributed to sector-specific changes that disproportionately affect Black workers. Asian Unemployment: Lo...

In July 2024, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, accompanied by an increase in nonfarm payroll employment by 114,000 jobs. This result reflects ongoing sector-specific dynamics and variations across different demographic groups. Key sectors such as health care , construction, and transportation and warehousing experienced job growth, while the information sector saw job losses. Sectoral Employment Trends 1. Health Care: Continued to show strong job growth , a trend consistent with the increasing demand for health services and an aging population. 2. Construction: Experienced an upward trend in employment, likely driven by ongoing infrastructure projects and residential construction activities. 3. Transportation and Warehousing: Benefited from the sustained demand for logistics and delivery services, partially due to e-commerce growth. 4. Information Sector: Faced job losses, potentially due to restructuring, automation, and the evolving digital landscape reducing demand for tradi...

The graphic above shows unemployment rates across different racial and ethnic groups from April 2023 to June 2024. The picture reviews unemployment rates for White, Black, Asian, and Hispanic or Latino populations. The data indicates fluctuations in unemployment rates between and among these groups, with disparities that warrant further examination. Trends and Observations 1. White Population: The unemployment rate for Whites has shown minor fluctuations, generally staying between 3.10% and 3.50%. The lowest recorded rate was in April 2023 (3.10%), and the highest was observed in October and December 2023, and June 2024 (3.50%). This demographic shows the least variation in unemployment rates compared to others. 2. Black Population: Blacks traditionally experience the highest volatility in unemployment rates, with a 0.2% increase in June 2024.  The rate increased from 4.80% in April 2023 to a peak of 6.40% in March 2024, before decreasing to 5.6% in April 2024. From April to June 2...