Skip to main content

What to Expect from Friday’s August Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers (Especially Black Women)

What to Expect from Friday’s August Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers (Especially Black Women)

As Friday, September 5, 2025, approaches—mark your calendar for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release at 8:30 a.m. ET—this preview underscores the persistent struggles facing Black workers, with a specific focus on Black women. See: https://www.blackenterprise.com/black-women-loss-extra-106000-jobs-april-unemployment/

1. U.S. Labor Market Outlook

  • Economists forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by approximately 75,000 jobs in August, signaling a soft recovery. Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%. 

2. Black Workers: No Relief in Sight

The last available data showed the Black unemployment rate at 7.2% in July 2025, the highest since late 2021. 

August Forecast:

Given the labor market softening, overall Black unemployment is expected to remain elevated—forecasted at 7.3%, barring any sudden improvement.

3. Black Male Unemployment

Detailed breakdowns remain scarce, but estimates suggest Black male unemployment may rise slightly above the group average.

  • If overall Black unemployment comes in at 7.3%, we forecast Black male unemployment at 7.1%. 

4. Black Women: Struggling to Keep Pace

August 2025 Unemployment Forecast

Group July 2025
Actual		 August 2025
Forecast
Black overall 7.2% 7.3%
Black men 7.0% 7.1%
Black women 6.3% 6.4% 

Why This Matters

  • Growing Disparities: Despite modest national job gains, Black workers—especially women—are seeing little relief. Continuing elevated joblessness amid a soft labor market signals deepening inequality.

  • Economic Warning Signs: Historically, deteriorating outcomes for Black women are early indicators of wider economic downturns. 

What to Watch on Friday:

  • Does the Black unemployment rate hold or climb? Even a slight uptick bears significance.

  • Are Black male and female unemployment rates diverging further?

  • Will we see increased labor force exits for Black women, continuing the troubling three-month trend of 280,000+ departures? 

This is more than a jobs report—it’s a stark indicator of whose labor experiences are being forgotten in broader economic conversation. 

Labels:

Popular posts from this blog

Kamalanomics: Home and Health

Vice President Kamala Harris recently unveiled her economic plan, which builds upon and expands several initiatives from the Biden administration while adding new elements aimed at addressing economic challenges faced by American families. Her plan, dubbed the "Opportunity Economy" agenda, focuses on lowering costs for essential goods and services, particularly targeting housing, healthcare, and groceries. Key Components: 1. Housing: Harris proposes constructing three million new homes to address the housing supply crunch, which is more ambitious than Biden's two-million-home plan. She also advocates for a $40 billion "innovation fund" to encourage local governments to find solutions to housing shortages and make it harder for investment companies to buy up large numbers of rental properties, which has driven up rent prices. (See: Comments to the CalPERS Board of Administration, July 15, 2024 on Housing and Environmental Investing.) 2. Healthcare: Expanding on B...
Read more

Maternal Health Financing Facility for Black Women: A Solution to an Urgent Problem

Maternal mortality is a significant issue in the United States, with Black women disproportionately affected. Research conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has shown that Black women are more likely to die from pregnancy-related causes than their white counterparts. However, the issue is not new, and despite the increasing amount of data available, the disparities have remained unaddressed for far too long.  Creative Investment Research (CIR) is among the organizations that believe there is a solution to the problem. Through our proposed impact investing vehicle , the Maternal Health Financing Facility for Black Women (MHFFBW), we aim to tackle the mortality gap and support Black women during childbirth, which will, in turn, benefit their communities. The Facility, based on legally binding financing agreements containing terms and conditions that direct resources to individuals and institutions capable of addressing supply-side conditions at the heart...
Read more

William Michael Cunningham on Impact Investing, Blockchain, and Crowdfunding

September 2018 - 10 Questions William Michael Cunningham on Impact Investing, Blockchain, and Crowdfunding Interview by Carly Schulaka WHO: William Michael Cunningham WHAT: Economist, impact investing specialist, founder of Creative Investment Research WHAT'S ON HIS MIND: “Any finance professional in the U.S. should learn how to create a blockchain.” 1. You are an economist, an inventor, and an impact investing specialist. I’ve heard you say: “True innovation happens in a way that is independent of monetary returns.” How does this statement influence your work? It’s really about finding an interesting problem and applying financial technology to solving that problem or to dealing with that problem. You know, the people who invented the alphabet didn’t do so to make money. They had an interesting problem—communication on both a local and a grand scale—and if you were to calculate the social return for the invention of that technology or technique, it’s almost infinit...
Read more