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What to Expect from Friday’s August Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers (Especially Black Women)

What to Expect from Friday’s August Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers (Especially Black Women)

As Friday, September 5, 2025, approaches—mark your calendar for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release at 8:30 a.m. ET—this preview underscores the persistent struggles facing Black workers, with a specific focus on Black women. See: https://www.blackenterprise.com/black-women-loss-extra-106000-jobs-april-unemployment/

1. U.S. Labor Market Outlook

  • Economists forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by approximately 75,000 jobs in August, signaling a soft recovery. Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3%. 

2. Black Workers: No Relief in Sight

The last available data showed the Black unemployment rate at 7.2% in July 2025, the highest since late 2021. 

August Forecast:

Given the labor market softening, overall Black unemployment is expected to remain elevated—forecasted at 7.3%, barring any sudden improvement.

3. Black Male Unemployment

Detailed breakdowns remain scarce, but estimates suggest Black male unemployment may rise slightly above the group average.

  • If overall Black unemployment comes in at 7.3%, we forecast Black male unemployment at 7.1%. 

4. Black Women: Struggling to Keep Pace

August 2025 Unemployment Forecast

Group July 2025
Actual		 August 2025
Forecast
Black overall 7.2% 7.3%
Black men 7.0% 7.1%
Black women 6.3% 6.4% 

Why This Matters

  • Growing Disparities: Despite modest national job gains, Black workers—especially women—are seeing little relief. Continuing elevated joblessness amid a soft labor market signals deepening inequality.

  • Economic Warning Signs: Historically, deteriorating outcomes for Black women are early indicators of wider economic downturns. 

What to Watch on Friday:

  • Does the Black unemployment rate hold or climb? Even a slight uptick bears significance.

  • Are Black male and female unemployment rates diverging further?

  • Will we see increased labor force exits for Black women, continuing the troubling three-month trend of 280,000+ departures? 

This is more than a jobs report—it’s a stark indicator of whose labor experiences are being forgotten in broader economic conversation. 

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