The November 2025 CPI release reported a 2.7 % annual rise in consumer prices, with food up ~2.6 % and energy up 4.2 % over the last year. Core (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6 % — driven by shelter (3 %) and medical services (3.3 %). Bureau of Labor Statistics
But the CPI estimates for October 2025 were based partly on nonsurvey data due to the federal government shutdown, raising legitimate concerns about accuracy and potential understatement of real inflation pressures.
Below, we infer impacts on Black and minority firms by linking price trends in key CPI categories to industries and geographies where Black and minority firms are disproportionately concentrated and where their customers spend.
2. Industry Breakout: How Inflation Pressures Hit Minority Firms Differently
A. Retail & Consumer Services
CPI Signals:
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Food pricing (especially food at home, meats, beverages) remains elevated.
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Used cars & transportation services have seen price changes.
Business Impact
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Retail firms face higher supplier costs for food, beverages, and consumer goods — squeezing margins unless prices are passed on to customers.
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Restaurants, cafes, and personal services also face sticky labor costs and rising input costs — all while consumer discretionary spending may soften.
Minority Firms at Risk
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Minority-owned retail and service firms are overrepresented in consumer-facing sectors and often lack pricing power relative to larger chains, meaning inflation erodes profitability faster. U.S. Chamber of Commerce
B. Construction, Transportation & Logistics
Business Impact
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Construction contractors face higher materials and fuel costs, plus tighter credit, all of which reduce bidding capacity.
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Transportation/logistics providers pay more for fuel, parts, and insurance.
Minority Firms at Risk
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Black and minority-owned firms are heavily concentrated as subcontractors in construction and local transportation services, where costs cannot easily be passed to large contractors or clients. impactinvesting.online
C. Health, Education & Social Services Suppliers
CPI Signals:
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Medical care services inflation 3.3 % annually.
Business Impact
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Firms supplying health and education sectors (e.g., staffing, administrative support) face rising wages and operating costs as institutions adjust to broader health care inflation and labor markets.
Minority Firms at Risk
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Black and minority business owners are disproportionately linked to education, health services, and social assistance supply chains, meaning a slowdown or budget tightening in these sectors disproportionately hits them. impactinvesting.online
D. Hospitality & Leisure
CPI Signals:
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“Food away from home” inflation (3.7 %) reflects pressure on dining and tourism services.
Business Impact
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Smaller hospitality businesses must cope with both higher costs and demand volatility — higher wages, supply costs, and possibly weaker discretionary spending.
Minority Firms at Risk
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Many Black and minority operators are in local hotels, food services, and entertainment, where margins are thin, and demand is tied to consumer confidence.
3. Regional Breakdown: Inflation + Local Dynamics
The CPI publishes regional indexes, each showing different inflation pacing across the U.S. (e.g., Northeast, South, Midwest, West).
While the most recent regional table isn’t fully published yet for November 2025, historically regional CPI can vary by 0.5 – 1+ percentage point because of different housing, transportation, and energy cost structures.
Regional Minority Firm Impacts — Key Patterns
A. Southern States & Urban Cores
Context
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High shares of Black and minority populations, large urban centers, and service industries.
Inflation Pressures
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Rising shelter costs and food prices hit household budgets and local consumer demand first.
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Utility and energy costs impact smaller businesses with less negotiation power.
Business Impact
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Services, retail, and personal care firms bear both higher operating costs and softer consumer demand as households spend more on essentials.
B. Northeast & West — Metropolitan Price Pressures
Context
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High cost of housing and logistics.
Inflation Pressures
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Stronger shelter inflation tends to dominate these regions.
Business Impact
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Small minority firms compete with larger counterparts in an environment where rent and labor costs are persistent constraints.
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Transportation and freight inflation adds to supplies and inventory costs.
C. Midwest & Smaller Metro Areas
Context
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Often slower wage growth and less robust consumer demand.
Inflation Pressures
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Price increases in commodities (transport, equipment) can compress margins without corresponding local demand increases.
Business Impact
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Minority firms in manufacturing-adjacent services get squeezed between weaker demand and rising intermediate costs.
4. Lived Inflation vs. “Official” CPI: Structural Disparities
There’s strong evidence that different demographic groups experience inflation differently because of different spending patterns — especially in food, transportation, and housing categories — even when national CPI averages moderate.
For example:
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Black and Hispanic households devote larger shares of expenditure to volatile categories like transportation, housing, and food, meaning their effective inflation can be higher than the headline CPI suggests.
For small businesses — particularly minority-owned ones — this means that the costs they actually face may run hotter than broad CPI figures imply, especially when survey collection is compromised.
5. Why These Breakouts Matter for Policy & Business Strategy
Even aside from suspicions about data accuracy during the shutdown period:
✔ Industry-specific inflation pressures matter because minority firms often operate in sectors where costs and consumer demand are volatile.
✔ Regional price differences mean firms in the South or urban cores can see sharper impacts than the national average.
✔ Policy tools (like credit access, contracts, and procurement) pegged to CPI may not reflect real-world cost experiences, disadvantaging minority firms further.