As we approach the release of July’s employment data this Friday, all eyes are on whether the U.S. labor market is truly stabilizing—or just hiding deeper cracks, particularly for Black workers.
Based on preliminary indicators, ongoing economic headwinds, and historical patterns, we expect the upcoming report to show a modest overall jobs gain, continued low headline unemployment—but troubling signs for the Black labor force.
The Context: A Fragile Summer
Last month’s (June 2025) report shocked observers with a 1.7 percentage-point spike in Black male unemployment, the second-largest monthly increase since the COVID shutdown in 2020. While overall Black unemployment jumped from 6.0% to 6.8%, the story for Black women was more complicated: despite a drop in the unemployment rate from 6.2% to 5.8%, 84,000 jobs were lost, and labor force exits likely explained the statistical “improvement.”
July’s data will be a stress test: will we see a bounce-back, or will the damage deepen?
What We Expect
📉 Black Unemployment: We anticipate overall Black unemployment to remain elevated, potentially falling slightly to 6.5%–6.6%, but not due to job gains. Instead, expect further labor force withdrawal, particularly among Black women, who are increasingly discouraged by a tight and inequitable labor market.
👨🏾 Black Men: After losing 181,000 jobs between May and June, we expect some stabilization in July. But we caution that this could be a “dead cat bounce”—the appearance of recovery that doesn’t hold. We estimate Black male unemployment will fall modestly to around 6.6%, but without significant job creation.
👩🏾 Black Women: We predict continued labor force exit will keep the unemployment rate around 5.8%, masking a further decline in employment levels. The total job losses for Black women in 2025, already estimated at 412,000, could rise again.
💼 Overall U.S. Labor Market: The national unemployment rate is likely to hold steady at 4.0%, with job gains between 150,000 and 190,000. Sectors like health care and hospitality may show strength, but wage growth is likely to cool—signaling a Fed-friendly report, but not necessarily a worker-friendly one.
Watch These Numbers Closely
When Friday’s data drop, here’s what we’ll be analyzing:
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Employment-population ratio for Black women
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Labor force participation for Black men
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Industry-level job changes in sectors with high Black employment
State and City-level job changes in regions with high Black employment
Why It Matters
If current trends continue, we risk seeing another statistical illusion: falling unemployment rates that hide real economic suffering due to shrinking participation. The true health of the Black labor market cannot be judged by unemployment rate alone—it requires deeper, disaggregated analysis.
📅 Check back Friday for our full breakdown of the July 2025 employment report.
📌 Read our last report here: Black Employment Sees Sharp Declines – June 2025
📢 Want to discuss or collaborate? Contact us at info@creativeinvest.com