What to Expect from Friday’s Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers.
As we await the July 2025 employment report this Friday (8/1/2025), it’s worth asking: will the data show real recovery—or more statistical illusion?
Last month, Black men saw a staggering 1.7 percentage-point jump in unemployment (from 5.2% to 6.9%), losing 181,000 jobs in a single month. Black women lost 84,000 jobs, bringing their total estimated job losses January to June 2025 - a stunning 412,000 jobs lost.
📉 Our Forecast for Friday:
- Black unemployment: Our forecast, based on labor force estimates and previous employment data trends, suggests that Black unemployment will increase sharply, continuing the distressing trend we saw in June.
- Black male unemployment: We expect July to bring more bad news, with the Black male unemployment rate rising to 7.1%.
- Black female employment: In July, we expect Black women’s unemployment rate rising to 6.4%.
📹 Video Briefing: YouTube – July Jobs Update. https://youtu.be/qQtgF-q0sm0?si=mlNCWRkTKZo8LpkC
📅 Check back Friday for our full breakdown of the July 2025 employment report.
📌 Read our last report here: Black Employment Sees Sharp Declines – June 2025
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