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Showing posts from July, 2025

Zeldin Proposes to Rescind Endangerment Finding. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

On July 29, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the EPA proposal to  rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding and end EPA regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. The Endangerment Finding allowed the Obama administration to mandate the EPA to stem vehicle emissions under Section 202(a)(1) of the Clean Air Act. With this scientific underpinning, the EPA issued many regulations and standards for the automaking industry to force cleaner practices and vehicles.  Despite strong initial resistance to the Endangerment Finding by both politicians and industry, there has been general acceptance that CO2 emissions are a threat to the climate and human survival. Rather than being rooted in intense lobbying from the automotive industry, Administrator Zeldin’s actions are painted as a cost-cutting measure. Climate change has become another battlefield in President Trump’s war on supposed government grift and excess. Zeldin’s latest proclamation would end a practice that has seen over $1 tr...

What Q2 2025 GDP Means for Black and Minority-Owned Businesses by Region and Industry

 U.S. Economy in Q2 2025: A Mixed Recovery Real GDP  grew at an  annualized rate of 3.0%  between April and June, following a  0.5% decline  in Q1, per the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( Bureau of Economic Analysis ). Much of this rebound reflected a sharp  drop in imports , while  consumer spending  ticked up moderately at about  1.4% , and underlying  final sales to private domestic purchasers  rose only  1.2% , the slowest pace since late 2022 ( Reuters ).  Why It Matters for Black & Minority‑Owned Firms Tariffs & Supply‑Chain Shocks The administration’s broad  tariff increases —including 25% duties on goods from Mexico and Canada and higher levies on Chinese exports—have disproportionately affected minority‑owned firms that depend on  affordable imported materials  ( impactinvesting. online ). Elevated import costs eat into slim margins and disrupt inventory sourcing...

The Question of AI Regulation – Rohan Sivakumar University of Chicago, Gabriel Philipp, Siena University

 At 10:00 am on 7/30/25, the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance, and Investment convened a panel of three industry experts to gain clarity on the best path forward in the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI).  All three witnesses provided an optimistic view of AI, particularly in its widespread integration and adoption by American industries. Apart from a few questions from Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) regarding the impact of the current administration’s attitude towards climate change on the insurance industry, the hearing was largely apolitical.  Throughout the hearing, there was a significant emphasis on how AI can be developed safely and in ways that benefit the population over corporate enterprises. There was a reference to a speech given by Geoffrey Hinton , 2024 Nobel Physics Prize winner, warning about the future of AI development. He points out within his speech that AI has two ways it could be developed. It could b...

What to Expect from Friday’s Jobs Report: A Critical Moment for Black Workers

What to Expect from Friday’s Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers.  As we await the July 2025 employment report this Friday (8/1/2025), it’s worth asking: will the data show real recovery—or more statistical illusion? Last month, Black men saw a staggering 1.7 percentage-point jump in unemployment (from 5.2% to 6.9%), losing 181,000 jobs in a single month. Black women lost 84,000 jobs, bringing their total estimated job losses January to June 2025 - a stunning 412,000 jobs lost. 📉 Our Forecast for Friday: Black unemployment: Our forecast, based on labor force estimates and previous employment data trends, suggests that Black unemployment will increase sharply, continuing the distressing trend we saw in June. Black male unemployment: We expect July to bring more bad news, with the Black male unemployment rate rising to 7.1%. Black female employment: In July, we expect Black women’s unemployment rate rising to 6.4%. 📢 Join us Friday for full analysis once the data drop. 📹...

The Senate Banking Committee Provides an SEC-focused Crypto Market Structure Bill. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

A new draft Senate Banking Committee bill could significantly reshape how digital assets are regulated, potentially exempting most secondary market transactions from securities laws while enabling innovation, and combating illicit financial activity. Legislative Framework Rather than invent a new asset class, as the CLARITY Act does, the Senate Banking Committee has opted to amend the Securities Act of 1933 to include digital commodities under definition of ancillary assets and define ancillary asset originators as the initial distributors of ancillary assets. An ancillary asset is often sold within an investment contract; however, the asset itself is not a security. Therefore, non-security based transactions, meaning most secondary transactions, are exempt from securities laws. The SEC is mandated to create a process, similar to the CLARITY Act’s maturity certification, for ancillary asset originators to apply for disclosure requirement exemptions. To standardize the application of s...

Advancing the SDGs. From a Summary Compiled by Adam Zakman. University of California - Davis.

The 2025 SDG Global Business Forum, held as a high-level event today (7/22/25) in conjunction with the UN High-Level Political Forum, highlighting both the urgency and opportunity facing public and private actors committed to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Adam Zakman from Creative Investment Research took part in this event and offers his summary and reflection below, drawing connections to our ongoing work supporting equitable economic development and impact investing. The $4 Trillion Challenge—and the Private Sector’s Response A central theme of the Forum was the staggering $4 trillion annual financing gap required to achieve the SDGs by 2030. While no one expects the private sector to close this gap alone, the forum made clear that institutional and impact investors are eager to deploy capital—if the conditions are right. “Profit is not a dirty word,” as UN Global Compact CEO Sanda Ojiambo reminded attendees. Creative Investment Research has long argued that...

Federal Reserve Beige Book Starts Following Minority and Women-Owned Business Trends. Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

On July 16th, the Federal Reserve released the summary of economic conditions, also known as the Beige Book. Reviewing economic activity in all twelve Federal Reserve districts, the report covers domestic economic activity for the month of June, 2025. There has been an increase in references to minority, and women-owned businesses within Reserve Bank evaluations of economic activity.  Minority- and Women-Owned Businesses in the Beige Book:  In my earlier reviews and evaluations of the Beige book, I found that the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis the only Federal Reserve bank consistently reporting on the performance of minority and women-owned businesses. June of 2025 was no exception, as Minneapolis continued its focus on economic activity in this sector. This month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland joined in highlighting this sector, briefly noting growing economic uncertainty among minority, women, and veteran-owned businesses, particularly with respect to their abi...

Trump’s Fed Attacks Are Dangerous—and Designed to Distract

  Donald Trump’s latest insult—calling Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a “numbskull” who “makes it difficult for people to buy a house”—is not only juvenile but deeply irresponsible. This is not an isolated outburst. It is part of a broader, calculated campaign to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve and bend monetary policy to political will. As I wrote in my recent American Banker  Newspaper op-ed, " Trump’s assaults on the Federal Reserve’s independence must cease ," these actions represent a direct threat to the institutional foundations of our financial system. Let’s be clear: housing affordability issues stem more from Trump-era inflationary policies, deregulation, and tax cuts for the wealthy than anything Powell has done. The Fed, under Powell, has pursued interest rate policy to stabilize inflation—something necessary after Trump’s fiscal mismanagement during and after the pandemic. This latest attack is meant to distract the public from Trump’s own ...

Response to Grost’s “Why the federal government is making climate data disappear.” Adam Zakman. University of California - Davis.

The erasure of National Climate Assessments and limiting the availability of vital climate data is not accurately described by the author as a "flex of executive power, an escalation of the culture war over climate change, or a strategic attempt to erase the scientific foundation for climate policy." It is a clear abuse of executive power and a testament to Trump's influence over U.S. industry. Trump, historically, has brought attention to "culture war" issues to distract and draw attention away from specific topics, not as a guide for his policy. Additionally, climate change denialism is far from being a popular decision. In 2024, Nature published an article by Andre et al. sharing demographic data on the global support for climate action . They found that the vast majority of Americans believe climate change to be a real phenomenon, with 74% of Americans agreeing that "the national government should do more to fight global warming." Furthermore, Our ...

June 2025 CPI: How Women-Owned Businesses Will Be Affected. Kate Jaramillo, University of Arizona.

The June, 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.7%. Prices for energy services rose 0.9%, with increases in electricity and utility gas services of 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively. Year-over-year energy services costs sit at an elevated 7.5% increase, including a 5.8% YoY increase in electricity. The household furnishing and operations index–cleaning supplies, appliances, furniture, maintenance–increased by 1.0% in June, following just +0.3% in May. Transportation services overall rose 0.2%, with +0.2% for motor vehicle maintenance and repair and +0.1% for motor vehicle insurance. The June increase brings this insurance index to +6.1% over the past year, a notable growth. Impact on Women-Owned Businesses by Sector 1. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (PSTS) Increased costs of 0.5% for internet services and electronic information providers poses particular ch...

Is Foreign Investment A National Security Threat? – Rohan Sivakumar, University of Chicago

This question was the topic of the hearing entitled “U.S. Policy on Investment Security”, held before  the House Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions. Much of the conversation centered around the role of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Chairman Davidson (R-OH), along with Representatives Barr (R-KY) and Williams (R-TX) represented the Republicans – voicing support for President Trump’s signing of a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM), which aimed to simultaneously promote benign foreign investment and protect American national security from integrity of data threats believed to be posed by nations like China. Chair Davidson also, strangely, attempted to argue that tariffs levied against such countries were an effective device to bolster national security.  Ranking Member Beatty (D-OH), Rep. Liccardo(D-CA), Rep. Kim (D-CA), and Rep. Foster (D-IL) represented...

Jamie Dimon Addresses Trump’s Pressure on Powell. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

Recent tensions between the White House and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have brought the issue of central bank independence into sharp focus. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's warning that "the independence of the Fed is absolutely critical" and that "playing around with the Fed can have adverse consequences, the absolute opposite of what you might be hoping for" reflects concerns quietly shared across the financial community about maintaining the institutional integrity that has anchored American economic stability and ensured America’s financial dominance. Recently, Creative Investment Research published an op-ed in the BankThink section of the American Banker Newspaper reflecting these same concerns. You can view the article here:  https://www.impactinvesting.online/2025/07/bankthink-trumps-assaults-on-federal.html Federal Reserve independence exists for compelling reasons. When central banks operate under executive branch political pressure, they ...

Crypto Week Off to a Rocky Start. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

In a surprising turn of events, the House of Representatives’ “Crypto Week” got off to a rocky start on Tuesday with the failure of a procedural vote hoping to bundle the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and the Department of Defense Appropriations Bill into one vote. The vote failed 196-223 with many Republicans voting out-of-party-line. Now each bill will be voted upon individually. The Democratic-led effort to kill the bill cited their main grievances weak as oversight, regulatory arbitrage opportunities, and a lack of consumer protections within the GENIUS and CLARITY Acts, along with a pervasive spirit of corrupt involvements in the crypto industry by the Trump family. There appeared to be little faith in the upside of blockchain and cryptocurrency. Republican supporters of the effort demanded an end to America’s straggling in the crypto regulation race. Other countries like South Korea and EU member nations have already set-up licensing regimes a...

June 2025 CPI Report Reveals Mounting Pressure on Black-Owned Businesses

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI-U increased 0.3% in June, seasonally adjusted—significantly higher than May’s 0.1%—while the annual inflation rate rose to 2.7%  Food prices increased 0.3%, including +0.3% for food at home and +0.4% for food away from home. Year-over-year food inflation is up 3.0%, with particularly sharp increases in eggs and non-alcoholic beverages  Energy rose 0.9%, led by gasoline (+1.0%), electricity (+1.0%), and natural gas (+0.5%), although energy is down 0.8% year-over-year  Shelter—a major cost category—rose 0.2%, continuing upward pressure on both commercial and residential rents  Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased 0.2%, with broad gains across medical care, household furnishings, apparel, and vehicle insurance, despite declines in used-car prices  🧩 Impact on Black & Minority-Owned Businesses 1. Food & Hospitality Pressure Intensifies: With food inflation steady at 0.3%, small, minority-ow...

Governments Face Existential Challenge in AI Era. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

As the world struggles to achieve only 35% of its Sustainable Development Goals , a new technological disruption threatens to reshape the very foundations of governance. Dr. Yasar Jarrar's analysis reveals that SDG 16 —functioning government institutions—may be the critical bottleneck preventing progress on all other goals. With AI poised to create both unprecedented innovation and inequality, governments find themselves caught between the promise of technological advancement and the peril of being left behind. The challenge is no longer simply about adopting AI tools for public services, but about fundamentally preparing governmental structures for a world where artificial intelligence becomes ubiquitous.  The timeline for this transformation is alarmingly compressed. By 2040, an estimated 10% of the population will consist of robots, chatbots, and automated systems, potentially displacing entire employment sectors overnight—from taxi drivers to various government roles. Yet most...

Global Economic Outlook: Should We Be Worried? Gabriel Philipp, Rohan Sivakumar

On July 10, 2025, Brookings’ “State of the Global Economy” panel gave a somewhat bleak picture of the world’s economic future. Global Projections:  The 2020s are projected to be one of the slowest decades for Global GDP growth in recent memory. There are several reasons, but this decline boils down to trade uncertainty and a rise in global conflict.  We are seeing a decrease in global GDP growth for the year 2025, with projections showing that GDP growth will drop from 2.8% to 1.4%. There was a consensus that we will see GDP growth stabilize in 2026, but it will not recover. Making the 2020s the slowest decade for GDP growth.   Countries are showing growing economic uncertainty as recent U.S. trade and tariff policies shift the global economic landscape. These changes have contributed to a slowdown in global trade growth, driven by increasing fragmentation and a lack of clarity around the U.S. approach trade going forward. As nations struggle to anticipate the direct...

Project 2025 and the Dangerous Assault on the Federal Reserve

The latest attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by Russell Vought—current Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Trump—is not just another skirmish in Washington’s ongoing political drama. It is a signal flare from the architects of Project 2025 , a radical plan to consolidate presidential power and dismantle key democratic institutions. And it should alarm anyone who cares about economic stability, rule of law, and the integrity of U.S. financial markets. Earlier this month, Vought posted a letter on social media accusing Powell of breaking the law, misleading Congress, and mismanaging a planned $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters. The timing is not accidental. It comes just weeks after Donald Trump sent Powell a handwritten note pressuring him to slash interest rates. The letter also follows a wave of public attacks by Trump allies—including Peter Navarro and Bill Pulte—meant to delegitimize Powell and undermine the Federal Reserve’s i...

Trump's assaults on the Federal Reserve's independence must cease. BankThink - American Banker Newspaper.

At a July 8 cabinet meeting, President Donald Trump launched a fresh barrage of attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over his handling of interest rates, claiming Trump's team could "do a better job than him," accusing Powell of lying to Congress and calling for his resignation. The president even suggested that Powell acted to benefit the Biden-Harris campaign by speeding up rate cuts under Trump's predecessor, and slow-walking them now. "He's always late with me, not with Biden," Trump said, implying that Powell's monetary policy decision-making was politically motivated. The truth is as follows: Mr. Powell has a documented history of nonpartisan behavior when it comes to monetary policy, most recently displayed on June 24th during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Maintaining a nonpartisan stance, the Fed chair refused to make any comments about either Trump or the administration's fiscal policy. Of course, ...

The Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Demonstrates a Commitment to Providing Clear Crypto Market Regulations. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

On July 9, the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs hosted a panel on cryptocurrency market structure. In a discussion of providing clarity, the shared sentiment that uncertainty is putting America at a disadvantage on the global stage was glaring. Almost every senator affirmed that the previous ambiguity that has historically characterized crypto regulation was driving away innovation to countries such as Singapore and the UAE. From this central tenet, three major topics emerged: the role of Congress in regulating crypto, the prevalence of illicit activity, and the conflicts of interest. Congress’s Role  There was no denial from the committee that the current securities laws and the Howey Test did not properly fit cryptocurrency. Thus, the majority of the questions stemmed from the desire to establish clearer regulations to promote innovation while protecting consumers and investors from fraud. Panelist Timothy Massad offered a well-received suggestion that Cong...

A Troubling Turn: Black Unemployment Sees Sharp Rise Amid 2025 Labor Market Shifts

The latest employment data paint a stark and concerning picture for Black workers in the U.S. economy. After steady—if uneven—gains in recent years, June 2025 brought a sharp reversal, especially for Black men. Black Male Unemployment Spikes Dramatically Black male unemployment surged from 5.2% in May to 6.9% in June—an astonishing jump of 1.7 percentage points in just one month. This represents the second largest monthly increase since the dark days of March-April 2020, when the pandemic lockdowns sent unemployment soaring. In raw numbers, Black men lost 181,000 jobs in June alone, a dramatic and painful setback. To put this in perspective, outside of the COVID-19 crisis, this is the largest one-month spike in Black male unemployment in at least a decade. Even during the Great Recession, similar jumps occurred over longer periods rather than in a single month. Overall Black Unemployment Trend Overall Black unemployment rose from 6.0% to 6.8% in June. This increase reflects a broader s...

House Voting on the “One Big Beautiful Bill” - Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

On July 1st, 2025, the U.S. Senate concluded its vote on the “One Big Beautiful Bill” with a tie, which was broken by Vice President J.D. Vance, allowing the bill to pass and move to the House of Representatives. The following day, July 2nd, the House began its vote. I managed to enter the chamber to observe the voting process and get a sense of the atmosphere firsthand. The House Atmosphere:   It’s worth noting that all House votes are open to the public. While public seating isn’t right next to the representatives, it still offers a full view of the chamber, along with clear displays showing what’s being voted on and how each member votes. The atmosphere in the room was striking. Most of the people watching from the observation booths were young adults, which caught me off guard, I expected an older crowd. While there were some older viewers, I was mostly surrounded by younger people. That matters, because it shows that younger generations are paying attention to what’s happ...