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March 2026 CPI Jumps — What It Means for Black and Minority Firms

  The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a sharp increase in inflation , signaling renewed economic pressure on Black- and minority-owned firms. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that consumer prices rose 3.3% over the 12 months ending in March , up from 2.4% in February . Core CPI rose 2.6% , while energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year and food increased 2.7% . ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) This represents a meaningful re-acceleration in inflation , with the largest increases concentrated in categories that disproportionately affect minority businesses and the communities they serve. Why the March CPI Is Especially Important This CPI release changes the economic narrative: Inflation re-accelerated Energy costs spiked sharply Core inflation remains sticky Food prices continue rising This combination creates a double squeeze on Black and minority firms: Higher operating costs Reduced customer purchasing power Industry Impact on Black and Minority Firms Black and mino...

The Number of Unemployed Black Women Fell by 113,000 Persons in March, 2026

The US unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline. BLS reported that the number of unemployed Black women fell from 804,000 to 691,000, by 113,000 persons in March, 2026. Note that the reported industries with job gains do not match industries where Black women are employed. Overall payroll employment increasing by 178,000 would mean 63% of the new jobs went to Black women. This is unlikely and indicates a need for further review. In other words, we do not trust these initial numbers... Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian (3.7 percent) decreased in March. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (13.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (7.1 percent), or Hispanic (4.8 percent) showed li...

Public meeting at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act. Georgia Kogut, GWU.

On March 26, 2026, I attended a public meeting at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act. I expected something highly technical and removed from everyday realities, but the conversation returned to the same concerns.  The meeting was divided into four panels: supervision, banking regulations, innovation, and consumer protection. The discussion centered on two themes: inconsistency in supervision and the pressure placed on community banks.  Panelists came from different institutions, but their concerns overlapped. The first panel on bank supervision made it clear that the issue is not a lack of rules, but how unevenly those rules are applied. Several speakers highlighted the issue of weak communication between regulators and banks, noting that expectations shift depending on the examiner or agency involved, which creates unpredictability that makes the system more difficult to navigate.  Instead of operating wit...

At POLITICO’s Economy Summit. Amza Togore (Trinity College).

At POLITICO’s Economy Summit on March 25, 2026, the conversation around trade captured something bigger than tariffs alone: the sense that economic policy is now inseparable from political struggle.  The summit included a trade panel, “What’s Next for Trump’s Tariffs?,” with Greta Peisch, Everett Eissenstat, and Eugene Laney, along with a separate conversation with Peter Navarro.  That lineup mattered. It signaled that trade is no longer being discussed only as a technical issue for economists or lawyers but as a live political battleground involving executive power, business strategy, and the price Americans pay for everyday life.  What makes this moment especially important is that it comes after a major legal shock. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling that Congress, not the president, holds the authority to impose tariffs of that scope.  But...

What the PPI Report Is Really Telling Us. Amza Togore (Trinity College).

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release did not just come in elevated—it came in decisively hot. A 0.7% monthly increase, following 0.5% in January, is a pattern. And when you annualize the recent momentum, you are looking at 4–5%  annualized inflation pressure. Remember, PPI is not a prediction. It is a diagnostic tool. It tells us where inflation stress is forming inside the economy—before it becomes visible to consumers. And right now, that stress is building quietly but broadly. Goods prices are reaccelerating. Service costs are not cooling. Food costs moved higher. That combination matters more than the level of inflation. It is the distribution and direction that is important. We have now moved from: 0.4% → 0.5% → 0.7% Can We Use This to Predict Inflation? Yes — But Carefully If we take recent monthly PPI data and run a simple projection: [(1-mDec)(1-mJan)(1-mFeb)]**4 - 1] We get annualized inflation from 4 to 5 %. This is a meaningful, but PPI does not translate cleanl...

Saalex Event at the Capital One Arena.Riley McGlynn, Sienna University.

Saalex Event at the Capital One Arena. Left to right, Le Nhu Ngoc Tran, Whitman College, Ramal Moreland, JP Morgan, Don Cravins, CEO, NMSDC, Riley McGlynn, Sienna University, Amza Togore, Trinity College, Georgia Kogut, George Washington University On February 24th I attended an event that the interns at Creative Investment Research (Le Nhu Ngoc Tran, Whitman College, Riley McGlynn, Sienna University, Amza Togore, Trinity College, Georgia Kogut, George Washington University) helped put together. The event was hosted by Saalex Corporation at Capital One Arena during the Georgetown vs. Marquette basketball game. In attendance were individuals from different companies, including Don Cravins, President of the National Minority Supplier Development Council (NMSDC), and Shannon Smith, Vice President of SAALEX.  Coordinating and designing this event was an important learning experience for us, as communication and collaboration were huge parts of the reason this event was so suc...

Slowing U.S. Growth and the Outlook for Black and Minority-Owned Firms

  Implications of the BEA GDP Second Estimate for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 The latest GDP release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirms what many businesses already felt on the ground: economic momentum slowed significantly at the end of 2025. For Black- and minority-owned businesses (MBEs), this slowdown carries important implications for revenue, hiring, financing, and regional economic opportunity. Real GDP growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with earlier in the year. The BEA reported that real GDP rose 1.4% at an annual rate in Q4 , down from 4.4% in the third quarter , with growth driven primarily by consumer spending and investment while declines in exports and government spending offset some of the gains.  Subsequent revisions and analysis suggest growth may have been even weaker, with estimates pointing to roughly 0.7% annualized growth , reflecting weaker consumer spending, falling exports, and reduced government activity....

Feb. 2026 CPI - Implications for Black and Minority Firms

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows inflation rising 0.3% in February and 2.4% over the past year , with shelter, food, and energy the main contributors to price increases. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) This level of inflation appears high relative to the Fed's 2% inflation target. Further, the economic impact varies sharply depending on industry exposure and regional cost structures . For Black and minority-owned businesses (MBEs), these differences matter because minority firms are concentrated in specific sectors and urban regions that are particularly sensitive to inflation. 1. Industry Exposure of Black and Minority Firms Minority-owned businesses are disproportionately represented in a handful of industries. Key sectors include: Health care and social assistance Transportation and warehousing Accommodation and food services Retail trade Professional and technical services Construction ( Pew Research Center ) These industries account for a large share of minority ent...

The Employment Situation – February 2026: Implications for Black and Minority Businesses By Industry and Region

The latest U.S. employment report for February 2026 reveals a labor market that contains important warning signs—particularly for Black workers, minority entrepreneurs, and the businesses that employ them. These signals are especially relevant for minority-owned firms, which tend to operate in industries and regions that are more sensitive to shifts in employment conditions. Overall, the U.S. unemployment rate increased to  4.4% in February from 4.3% in January. Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 92,000 jobs . However, the impact of these changes is not evenly distributed across communities, industries, or geographic regions. Employment Trends and Minority Business Implications One of the most important findings in the February report is the widening gap between unemployment rates across racial groups. Black unemployment: 7.7% Hispanic unemployment: 5.2% Asian unemployment: 4.8% White unemployment: 3.7% Black unemployment remains more than double the White unemploymen...

Leading Without Burnout: 2026 BLACK ENTERPRISE Women of Power Summit Workshop on Wellness and Self Care

Burnout among Black women leaders is gaining long-overdue attention. An article in Black Enterprise Magazine by Jeffrey McKinney highlights the growing pressures Black women face in leadership and entrepreneurship—and the structural factors driving these challenges.As the article notes, economic conditions are part of the story. According to Creative Investment Research , recent labor market trends are reshaping opportunities and stress levels for Black women in the workforce.   William Michael Cunningham, MA, MBA explains that rising unemployment among Black women in 2025–2026 reflects both more Black women entering the labor force and job cuts in sectors where Black women are heavily represented, including healthcare, social assistance, and education. Understanding these dynamics requires economic analysis of the systems shaping Black women’s work, income, and opportunity. If we want to address burnout meaningfully, we must also address the underlying economic structures drivin...

Number of Black Women Unemployed Grows in Feb., 2026.

After dropping from an increase of 222,0000 in December 2025 to an increase of 119,000 by January, 2026, the number of Black women unemployed resumed its climb in February. In January, 2026, the Department of Labor reported 717,000 Black women unemployed, growing to 804,000 unemployed by February, 2026.  The rise in unemployment among Black women in 2025-2026 is not only due to job loss, however. As the chart below shows, it is largely the result of increased labor force participation combined with job losses in healthcare and government, sectors where Black women are overrepresented.

At the National Press Club. Le Nhu Ngoc Tran, Whitman College.

On February 20th, I attended the Annual Minority Policy Summit hosted by the Financial Services Innovation Coalition (FSIC) at the National Press Club. The conversations around 2026, antitrust, and AI left a strong impression on me. The economic outlook for 2026 presented by William Michael Cunningham of creativeinvest.com was especially compelling since many of the predictions he made at the same event in 2025 have come true, from the labor market forecast to the predicted condition of the housing market and unemployment. His message was clear: we are not in a normal business cycle but the economy is changing, driven by technology, shifting the labor demands, and evolving capital markets. After that, the discussion about antitrust built directly on that theme. Protecting minority businesses and ensuring fair competition will require modernized antitrust policies that address technological dominance, not just traditional monopolies. This also depends on how effectively we regulate co...

State of the Union 2026: Implications for Black and Minority Communities

The 2026 State of the Union (SOTU) address presented a falsely optimistic narrative of economic recovery, falling inflation , rising employment, and national renewal. This picture is incorrect. When examined through the lens of Black and minority communities, the speech reveals a significant gap between macroeconomic claims and the structural realities facing historically disadvantaged groups. While the address emphasized economic growth , border security, and deregulation, it provided limited concrete evidence that these policies are improving outcomes for minority households or businesses. The speech highlighted strong employment growth, inaccurately claiming that “more Americans are working today than at any time in the history of our country.” Data show elevated Black and Hispanic unemployment rates, remaining twice as high as white unemployment. Without targeted workforce policies or investment in disadvantaged communities, minority workers, especially women, remain concentrated ...

Producer Price Pressures and the Outlook for Black and Minority Firms - Implications of the Latest Producer Price Index (PPI) Release

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics highlight renewed inflation pressures at the business level. The PPI measures price changes received by producers for goods and services sold for consumption, investment, government, and export markets—making it one of the clearest indicators of business cost conditions. Recent data show that producer prices rose about 0.5% in the most recent month and roughly 2.9% over the past year , with the largest increases concentrated in services and trade margins.  For Black-owned and minority-owned firms—many of which operate with thinner margins and less access to credit—the implications of rising producer prices are significant. Rising Producer Prices Mean Higher Operating Costs 📈 Producer prices represent the costs businesses face before goods and services reach consumers. When PPI rises: Input costs increase Supplier prices rise Financing needs grow Profit margins shrink Recent increases were driven primar...

U.S. GDP Growth Slows in Q4 2025: What It Means for Black & Minority Business Owners

The U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter of 2025 at a 1.4 % annualized rate , a notable deceleration from the 4.4 % pace in the third quarter . For the full year, real GDP rose 2.2 % in 2025 , down from 2.8 % in 2024 , according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). ( Bureau of Economic Analysis ) This slowdown has important implications for Black- and minority-owned firms — not just in the aggregate, but across industries and regions. Below, we unpack what the data suggest for owners, investors, and leaders in underrepresented business communities. 1. Consumer Spending & Services — Staying Power GDP Drivers: Consumer Spending Still Positive Services and consumer spending were key contributors to growth in Q4 2025. Particularly, health care and related services showed strong activity, driven by demand for outpatient and long-term care services. Minority Firm Implication Black and minority entrepreneurs are disproportionately represented i...

A Word on Rev. Jackson

The passing of Jesse Jackson invites reflection not only on a singular life of moral courage, but on a set of missed intersections in American economic history—moments when civil-rights leadership, capital markets, and data-driven accountability might have converged to permanently change corporate behavior in the United States. Rev. Jackson understood something many still resist: civil rights do not end at voting booths or courtrooms . They extend into purchasing decisions, supply chains, boardrooms, and balance sheets. Economic justice was never ancillary to his work—it was foundational. Our Pitch to Rev. Jackson — 2006 In 2006, Creative Investment Research actively sought to develop, alongside Rev. Jackson and Operation PUSH, what we believed was a next-generation framework for corporate accountability . This effort is documented in contemporaneous correspondence from that period . At the center of our work was a simple but then-radical proposition: Corporations that benefit from A...