This Week in ESG and Impact Investing

The U.S. economy expanded in the fourth quarter of 2025 at a 1.4 % annualized rate , a notable deceleration from the 4.4 % pace in the third quarter . For the full year, real GDP rose 2.2 % in 2025 , down from 2.8 % in 2024 , according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). ( Bureau of Economic Analysis ) This slowdown has important implications for Black- and minority-owned firms — not just in the aggregate, but across industries and regions. Below, we unpack what the data suggest for owners, investors, and leaders in underrepresented business communities. 1. Consumer Spending & Services — Staying Power GDP Drivers: Consumer Spending Still Positive Services and consumer spending were key contributors to growth in Q4 2025. Particularly, health care and related services showed strong activity, driven by demand for outpatient and long-term care services. Minority Firm Implication Black and minority entrepreneurs are disproportionately represented i...

The passing of Jesse Jackson invites reflection not only on a singular life of moral courage, but on a set of missed intersections in American economic history—moments when civil-rights leadership, capital markets, and data-driven accountability might have converged to permanently change corporate behavior in the United States. Rev. Jackson understood something many still resist: civil rights do not end at voting booths or courtrooms . They extend into purchasing decisions, supply chains, boardrooms, and balance sheets. Economic justice was never ancillary to his work—it was foundational. Our Pitch to Rev. Jackson — 2006 In 2006, Creative Investment Research actively sought to develop, alongside Rev. Jackson and Operation PUSH, what we believed was a next-generation framework for corporate accountability . This effort is documented in contemporaneous correspondence from that period . At the center of our work was a simple but then-radical proposition: Corporations that benefit from A...

This morning’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release on U.S. inflation — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2026 — has been greeted with celebratory headlines. Politicians and pundits alike are touting the modest slowdown in headline inflation as proof that “prices are finally coming down.” But that’s not what the data actually show. According to the official CPI report from the BLS, the overall CPI rose 2.4% over the past 12 months , after rising 2.7% in the year ending December. That is a deceleration. But it is not a decline in prices. Prices still rose everywhere consumers spend — on food, rent, medical care, and services — and in many cases remained stubbornly high (especially food, which rose nearly 3% YOY). ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) Slowdown ≠ Relief at the Store A common mistake in popular commentary is conflating “inflation slowed” with “inflation fell.” But inflation slows when the pace of price increases decelerates — it does not mean that prices actually dr...

The January 2026 Employment Situation report has been widely cited to suggest improving labor-market conditions across demographic groups. But a close reading of the only place where race × sex unemployment is fully disaggregated suggests that the reported drop in Black women’s unemployment is statistical noise at best and a reporting artifact at worst , not evidence of real labor-market improvement. Below is why the headline interpretation does not hold up. 1. The “Improvement” Exists Only After Seasonal Adjustment The apparent month-to-month decline for Black women appears only in the seasonally adjusted data series . The not seasonally adjusted  data—the raw survey data—do not show a clean or convincing improvement. This matters because: Seasonal factors for small demographic subgroups are volatile and frequently revised. Seasonal adjustment is calibrated to historical patterns that do not reliably fit Black women’s labor-market dynamics , which are more sensitive to sector...

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Philip N. Jefferson spoke at Brookings on Friday Feb 6, 2026. His key point was that, while inflation is still at 3%, already above the target of 2%, he expects inflation to fall as the tariffs make their full way through the system. In his judgment, this is a one-time price level change rather than an ongoing price increase spiral since he believes inflation expectations remain well anchored. Key Drivers The pandemic showed that supply-side factors such as labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and commodity price spikes following conflicts like the Ukraine war, are crucial. New tariff policies, immigration restrictions that cut the supply of labor and large AI-driven infrastructure investments are some of the current day challenges. China, Canada A panel discussion addressed the electronic vehicle (EV) industry and the evolving trade relationship between China, Canada, and the United States. Panelists noted that China’s slowing domestic economy ha...

Bankers are trained to think about risk in familiar terms: interest rates, credit quality, capital ratios and macroeconomic cycles. What they are less accustomed to modeling—but increasingly cannot ignore—is the economic cost of civic disruption. Recent events in Minneapolis illustrate why. An amicus brief I filed in federal litigation involving the Minneapolis immigration enforcement program , Operation Metro Surge, documents $275–$320 million in cumulative economic harm tied to prolonged civic unrest, business shutdowns, school disruptions and emergency public-sector costs. These losses are not abstract. They translate directly into revenue volatility, labor-market disruption, impaired small-business cash flow and declining commercial corridor performance—all of which matter to banks. Small businesses in affected areas experienced revenue declines of 50% to 80% on disruption days, while public-sector overtime and emergency coordination costs exceeded $5 million per month. The burden ...

Minnesota has been at the center of national attention — not for its lakes or its winters, but for the economic earthquake rippling through its communities. Cities like Minneapolis and St. Paul have seen repeated protests, shutdowns, and demonstrations tied to federal enforcement actions. What began as local unrest has become a national protest wave , with activists, students, and workers taking to the streets in dozens of cities. These events aren’t isolated headlines — they are economic phenomena with real, measurable impact. As economists and impact investors, we are trained to look for systemic signals — not just speculation. In my recent research and expert filing in federal court, I modeled the economic effects of this multifaceted disruption, and the findings are sobering: Minnesota’s economy could face between $270 million and $400 million in cumulative harm by the end of 2026 — and that’s a conservative estimate . 1. What’s Happening on the Ground From Minneapolis to San An...

  Which group best represents the future? Which group do you trust?

As an economics student, I have spent countless hours studying and analyzing Federal Reserve policies in textbooks, but nothing prepared me for the chance to go to a Supreme Court hearing concerning those policies. The case I attended, Donald J. Trump, et al. v. Lisa D. Cook , centers on whether Trump can fire Federal Reserve Board governor Lisa Cook. The hearing was two hours of arguments. Solicitor General D. John Sauer, arguing for President Trump, spent time detailing how Lisa Cook allegedly made conflicting representations on two mortgage applications within a two-week period in 2021.  What impressed me the most was Justice Sotomayor’s intervention. She systematically dismantled the government’s emergency posture argument. Firstly, the president by his own admission, cannot fire Cook for policy disagreements. Secondly, Cook has not been incompetent or negligent while in office; the grounds for removal concerns pre-office conduct. Lastly, the Fed’s independence is important, an...

The Producer Price Index (PPI) —the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ measure of price changes received by U.S. producers—provides an early look at inflation pressures that ripple through our economy long before they show up in consumer prices. On January 30, 2026, the BLS reported that the PPI for final demand rose 0.5% in December 2025 , with prices for services rising sharply and goods prices essentially unchanged. On an annual basis, producer prices climbed about 3.0% in 2025 after rising 3.5% in 2024. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) While these headline figures matter for macroeconomic policy and markets, the real question for small business owners—especially Black and minority entrepreneurs —is how these wholesale price dynamics intersect with their costs, pricing power, industry exposures, and geographic realities. 1. PPI: A Leading Indicator for Business Costs in Key Industries The PPI covers industry-level price changes across thousands of goods and services, letting us see which s...

For much of the past two years, U.S. economic growth has rested on an uncomfortable truth: it has been carried disproportionately by high-income households . While inflation, housing costs, and credit tightening constrained most consumers, those earning over $100,000 continued to spend—and in doing so, propped up GDP growth. That support is now wavering. According to the January 2026 Macro Update from Morning Consult, consumer confidence among high-income earners has fallen sharply and unusually fast, prompting a downgrade of sentiment risk for this group from Medium to High . Over just 16 days, the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) for households earning more than $100,000 declined by 17.4 points , a 12.3% drop in only 30 days —one of the steepest declines in the series’ history. For impact investors, this is not a curiosity. It is a leading indicator . The Consumer-Led Growth Model Is Showing Its Limits Morning Consult’s data make clear why this shift matters. In 2025, nearly all ...

On January 22, 2026 , the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its updated estimate of U.S. economic growth for the third quarter of 2025 — adjusting the earlier preliminary number upward from 4.3% to 4.4% . ( Bureau of Economic Analysis ) This revision confirms the economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years , fueled by continued strength in consumer spending, exports, government outlays, and investment .  However, when we step beyond headlines and into the underlying data environment, a more nuanced and cautionary picture emerges — one that affirms much of the skepticism in our earlier analysis . 📈 What BEA’s Updated Estimate Says According to BEA: Real GDP grew 4.4% annually in Q3 2025 (July–September).  This is up from the initial 4.3% estimate and above economists’ expectations.  The increase was driven by consumer spending, business investment, exports, and government spending — while imports declined, which mechanically boosts GDP. Industry data show bro...

On January 21, 2026, the Supreme Court of the United States convened in Washington, D.C., for oral arguments in the high-stakes case of Trump v. Cook (No. 25A312). The proceedings, which began at 10:03 a.m. before Chief Justice Roberts and the Associate Justices, center on President Donald J. Trump's emergency application to stay a preliminary injunction that reinstated Lisa D. Cook to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The central legal battle involves whether the President has the authority to remove a Federal Reserve governor for "cause" based on alleged misconduct that occurred before her tenure, specifically, claims of "deceit or gross negligence" regarding conflicting mortgage applications submitted in 2021. Solicitor General D. John Sauer represented the Applicants (the President), while Paul D. Clement argued on behalf of Respondent Lisa Cook. Amza Togore at the Supreme Cour t The core of the dispute rests on the definition of "ca...

Le Nhu Ngoc Tran (Whittier College), Amza Togore (Trinity College) and Riley McGlynn (Siena College) at the US Supreme Court   On January 21st, 2026, I and my fellow interns at Creative Investment Research attended Oral Arguments at the Supreme Court of the United States concerning Trump v. Cook. The purpose of the oral arguments was to determine whether Donald Trump's attempts to fire Lisa Cook from her position as Governor of the Federal Reserve were lawful. The defense for this firing rested on allegations of mortgage fraud.  My perspective on how the Court operates, and specifically how they operated during this case is that it overall is smooth and straight to the point, getting deep into the case. The Justices asked thorough and relevant questions during the proceeding, while making sure the lawyers appearing before them  remained on topic, clear and concise. To give an example, early on during the argument by D. John Sauer the solicitor general and the man defe...

Watching American politics from the outside, it’s easy to hear people asking: how did this happen? How does a billionaire brand himself as anti-elite, win major support among impoverished Hispanic voters he openly targets, and keep pulling poor white working-class Americans into a coalition that always acts against their economic interests? One explanation—outlined in this video —is that voting behavior is frequently driven less by policy and more by emotional and social logic: protection, fear, disgust, hierarchy, and status threat . That framework is useful. But it becomes truly persuasive only when we anchor it in the long-run economic shifts that made these emotions politically usable. This analysis connects that “protector politics” thesis to hard economic data — income stagnation, manufacturing job loss, union decline , and the Black–White median income gap —to show why identity and status narratives keep winning against technocratic policy talk. 1) The Great Pretender/Prote...

📅 Martin Luther King, Jr. Day – A “Day On” for Justice and Shared Prosperity Today we honor the life and legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. , a visionary leader whose work reshaped America’s civil rights movement and challenged us to confront injustice wherever it lives — in society, in policy, and in the economy. While many remember Dr. King for his powerful words on civil rights and nonviolence, he also had a deep concern for how our economic systems treat people — especially those who have been marginalized. Dr. King was not opposed to markets themselves, but he was deeply committed to how wealth is created and used . He urged us to think not just about profit , but also about purpose, dignity, and community well-being .  https://www.impactinvesting.online/2016/01/martin-luther-kings-philosophy-on.html 💡 What Dr. King’s Economic Philosophy Means Today Dr. King believed that: Economic justice is inseparable from racial justice. Markets should serve people , not the othe...

To the editor: The reported  criminal investigation  involving Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell should alarm anyone who cares about financial stability, bank supervision and the rule-based operation of U.S. markets. This is not about a building renovation. It is about power. When political actors are dissatisfied with monetary policy — interest rates, inflation or the impact of tariffs — they increasingly seek leverage outside the policy process. Investigations, early leaks of confidential economic data, and public insinuations concerning legitimate private financial arrangements become tools of pressure. That is not accountability; it is intimidation. Just as  the fatal shooting  of Renée Nicole Good by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis sparked questions about the appropriate use of force, the criminal inquiry into Powell over his congressional testimony about a building renovation — a question of public record and policy disclosur...