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September 2025 Unemployment Forecast

Unemployment rates rose for most groups in August, and our forecast suggests the same trend is likely to continue into September. The numbers are small—but they point to deeper structural issues in the labor market, especially for women of color.

What We Saw in August

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), unemployment increased across nearly all groups in August 2025. Black women, Hispanic men, and Hispanic women experienced some of the sharpest increases. The only exception was Asian workers, whose unemployment rate declined. This broad uptick suggests momentum that is unlikely to reverse in the short term.

Forecast for September 2025 (Seasonally Adjusted, %)

  • Black Women (20+): 6.7% in August → 6.9% in September (higher)

  • Hispanic/Latina Women (20+): 4.9% in August → 5.0% in September (slightly higher)

  • White Men (20+): 3.7% in August → 3.8% in September (flat to slightly higher)

  • Overall (20+ years): 4.2% in August → 4.3% in September (slightly higher)

Other groups—including White women, Black men, and Hispanic men—are also expected to see higher unemployment. Asian unemployment, which fell in August, is forecasted to remain unchanged at 3.6%.

Why the Increase?

Several factors are at play:

  • Seasonal hiring patterns: Education and healthcare jobs tend to ramp up in early fall, but these gains often fail to offset post-summer slowdowns in retail, leisure, and hospitality—sectors that disproportionately employ women of color.

  • Sector-specific volatility: Hispanic men experienced a sharp increase in unemployment in August, pointing to continued instability in construction and service industries.

  • Macro uncertainty: While the Fed’s rate cut may boost demand in the longer term, its immediate effects are limited.

Risks and Caveats

There are two big caveats this month:

  1. Government Shutdown – The September Employment Situation report will not be released due to the shutdown.

  2. Data Integrity Concerns – Even when the data are released, revisions, nonresponse, and changes in survey methodology mean that month-to-month numbers should be viewed cautiously.

Why It Matters

Black and Hispanic women continue to face greater labor market fragility than other groups, with unemployment rates well above the national average. White men, while facing only slight increases, remain in a comparatively stronger position. As William Michael Cunningham of Creative Investment Research notes:

“The September 2025 unemployment forecast underscores the unequal burden carried by women of color in the labor market. Labor market equity remains unfinished work.”

Looking Ahead

September’s forecast points to continued challenges, but the broader story is clear: the U.S. labor market recovery is unsteady, and the most vulnerable groups remain at risk. Addressing these disparities requires intentional policies, targeted investment, and a commitment to the US Constitution.

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