The unemployment report for March 2025, to be released on Friday at 8:30 am, is anticipated to reflect a significant spike in Black unemployment, building upon trends identified earlier this year. Our previous forecast, which initially expected unemployment spikes earlier in the year, was ahead of schedule, as employment losses among Black workers in government and public-sector jobs took slightly longer to materialize.
According to our latest forecast for February 2025, out of a civilian noninstitutional Black population of approximately 35.6 million, about 22.1 million were participating in the labor force. At that point, around 20.7 million Black individuals were employed, resulting in an employment-population ratio of 58.1% and implying approximately 1.4 million unemployed Black workers.
Given the significant February job cuts predominantly in the government sector, as highlighted by the Black Enterprise article citing our report, it is expected that these cuts will become fully visible in the March employment report. The initial estimate predicted Black workers could comprise up to 80,000 of those newly unemployed. Late February, 2025 layoffs will sharply elevate the unemployment rate among Black communities.
This anticipated surge underscores existing vulnerabilities within employment sectors where Black individuals are disproportionately represented, especially in government roles. It also highlights systemic issues that exacerbate economic disparities during times of economic adjustment or fiscal austerity.
In summary, Black people and stakeholders should prepare for the March, 2025 employment report to confirm a noticeable increase in Black unemployment, reinforcing the importance of measures to support impacted workers and mitigate long-term economic consequences.