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Showing posts from September, 2025

The Essential Plumbing of the Economy. Diya Kumar, Intern, George Washington University

“Politicizing federal statistics and questioning the integrity of those who produce them harms decision making in every sector.”  Cecilia Rouse, President,  Brookings Institution at "The Importance of Credible Government Economic Data to Business." September 18, 2025, https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-importance-of-credible-government-economic-data-to-business/ . Credible economic data is an incredibly relevant topic, vital not only for the business community but for all citizens. Indeed, when federal statistics are bent for politics, the cost ripples through every boardroom, newsroom, and household. Objective decision making relies on the best available data, especially federal data, to understand trends like employment and inflation, and to set expectations for the future. Thus, without trust in federal statistical reports and agencies, every decision relying on them suffers. A Culture of Objectivity The reliability and integrity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS),...

Measuring Black Economic Power: Launch of the Black GDP Report

This week, at the Congressional Black Caucus Annual Legislative Conference (CBC ALC) , we are proud to launch the  Black GDP Report — a groundbreaking analysis that quantifies the economic contributions of Black Americans to the U.S. economy. For decades, policymakers, investors, and business leaders have overlooked the measurable economic power of Black communities. By applying the proven framework of the Latino GDP model, this new report captures the size, scale, and trajectory of Black economic activity—shedding light on both its resilience and its untapped potential. Key Findings Black GDP (2023): $1.6 trillion, comparable to the Canadian economy. Black Purchasing Power: $1.8 trillion in 2023, driving growth in housing, retail, technology, and cultural industries. Entrepreneurship: Over 3.5 million Black-owned businesses employ 1.2 million people and generate $200 billion annually. Labor Market Role: Black workers make up 13% of the U.S. labor force, concent...

POLITICO and Axios AI Tech Summits - ‘Sputnik’ Race Against China. Shea Carlberg and Isabela Butler. Edited by Diya Kumar.

The debate over how to regulate artificial intelligence is gaining momentum and yet a coherent path forward remains elusive. Two recent forums, one hosted by Politico and another by Axios, revealed just how divided policymakers, regulators, and industry leaders are. While both events emphasized the US's race against China, they diverged in sentiment. Politico’s arguments centered on ideology, global competition, and free speech, while Axios drilled down on jobs, transparency, and industry responsibility. At the Politico forum, much of the discussion revolved around America’s global standing in the AI race and its ideological battles at home. Sriram Krishnan, President Trump’s AI senior policy advisor, branded himself a “realist,” rejecting both “doomers” and “accelerationists.” Yet his rhetoric leaned accelerationist, as he dismissed California’s push for AI safety laws despite calling his own stance “regulation-first.” Krishnan framed AI as a “Sputnik race,” cautioning how it woul...

A Young Voice for the Future: Our Amicus Brief in Lighthiser v. Trump

On September 8, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana granted our motion to file an amicus curiae brief in Lighthiser, et al. v. Trump, et al. — a case that strikes at the heart of climate justice and intergenerational equity. This is not just another legal filing. It is a statement that the economic and health consequences of dismantling climate protections are real, measurable, and disproportionately borne by young people . And fittingly, the brief was authored by a young leader: Connor Stout, age 20, a senior at Denison University Why We Filed The challenged executive orders — 14154, 14156, and 14261 — expand fossil fuel development while dismantling climate mitigation and monitoring systems. Our brief demonstrates that these actions are not only environmentally reckless, but also economically catastrophic . EPA data shows that clean air protections prevented 230,000 premature deaths and preserved $1.8 trillion in economic value in 2020 alone. Rolling b...

August 2025 PPI: Behind the Headline Decline, Minority Businesses Still Face Rising Costs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.1% in August , after a sharp 0.7% increase in July and a modest 0.1% gain in June . On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 2.6% , while core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) increased 0.3% in August , marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise and a 2.8% annual increase —the highest since March 2025. At first glance, the decline may suggest relief. But when examined sector by sector, the structural cost shift is still very much in play—hidden cost pressures continue to weigh on the businesses least able to absorb them. Structural Cost Shift: Masked by Averages A structural cost shift occurs when price declines in non-essential categories obscure the rising cost of essentials—food, housing, energy, transportation, and healthcare. This disproportionately affects Black and minority-owned businesses, which: Operate with slimmer margins and less access to affordable ...

Black Unemployment Grew as Predicted. Shea Carlberg, Intern, George Washington University

The first Friday of the month has rolled around, which means the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released their anticipatory national unemployment numbers. Now, we were prepared to take these numbers with a grain of salt, but they appear to be on point (as far as we can tell.) As predicted , the Black unemployment numbers not only remain steady through August but rose significantly — a jump worth taking note of. We at Creative Investment Research predicted the overall Black employment rate would be up to 7.3%, however, the rate jumped to 7.5%. For Black men we were on target, correctly predicting a whopping 7.1%, which went up from last month’s 7.0%. This roughly translates to an additional 30,000 unemployed Black men. Then there’s the ever-concerning Black women unemployment rate that we predicted to be 6.4% but leapt to 6.7%. This amounts to approximately 45,000 more Black women left without a job during the final months of summer.

What to Expect from Friday’s August Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers (Especially Black Women)

What to Expect from Friday’s August Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers (Especially Black Women) As Friday, September 5, 2025 , approaches—mark your calendar for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release at 8:30 a.m. ET —this preview underscores the persistent struggles facing Black workers, with a specific focus on Black women. See:  https://www.blackenterprise.com/black-women-loss-extra-106000-jobs-april-unemployment/ 1. U.S. Labor Market Outlook Economists forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by approximately 75,000 jobs in August, signaling a soft recovery. Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate is expected to tick up from 4.2% to 4.3% .  2. Black Workers: No Relief in Sight The last available data showed the Black unemployment rate at 7.2% in July 2025 , the highest since late 2021.  August Forecast: Given the labor market softening, overall Black unemployment is expected to remain elevated—forecasted at  7.3% , barring any sudden improvement. 3...