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Showing posts from 2025

Inflation Still Running Hot: What the Delayed CPI Means for Black and Minority Businesses

The delayed release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) — now scheduled for Friday,  October 24, 2025 — comes at a crucial moment. With Federal Reserve officials weighing whether to cut the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to ease short-term borrowing costs, this data release will heavily influence the next policy move. Forecast: Inflation Running Hot Our forecast projects that headline CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year in September , slightly above expectations, while Core CPI (excluding food and energy) likely came in at 3.3% . On a month-to-month basis, prices probably increased 0.5% , reflecting continuing upward pressure from goods and housing costs. While energy prices eased modestly, tariff-related price pressures and supply-chain re-shoring costs have kept inflation “sticky.” Durable goods categories such as furniture, appliances, and home fixtures — many of which depend on imported materials — remain notably affected by tariffs . These categories alone may have contri...

New Majority Ventures (NMV) Town Hall. Shea Carlberg, George Washington University (25).

New Majority Ventures (NMV) hosted a town hall at Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Library in downtown D.C. providing a space for minority entrepreneurs and business-owners to learn from seven-figure-earning DMV success stories. NMV provides feedback and technical training for growing companies that can provide marketing prioritization skills and hiring skills. They also announced the launch of their app that leverages their training modules for mobilized use. The most remarkable aspect of hearing directly from these founders was seeing how humble they were about their rising stardom. Not due to the cameras on them, rather, it was clear they learned the importance of trust between workers and executives. Invest in your team. You can’t grow your product if people don’t believe in the purpose you have set out, and therefore you must also convince people you’d like to hire why your company is different from the white noise in a vast pool of apps and other existing user platforms.  Busi...

Black-owned businesses took a disproportionate hit amid shutdown. October 20, 2013. Capital Business - Washington Post.

The partial government shutdown did not impact all businesses equally. As chief economist for the U. S. Black Chamber of Commerce, my research indicates black-owned businesses were hit harder than most. Many are located in states that receive substantial federal aid, such as Maryland and Virginia, and they tend to be in industries such as health care, administration, transportation, professional services and retail that are sensitive to any decline in federal spending. As a result, these companies can experience a double hit. I estimate there are roughly 1.9 million black-owned businesses in the United States, and they generated $131 billion in 2012. That suggests the monetary impact of the shutdown on their businesses to be $10 million per day. We saw the effects. National parks and federally owned museums closed. Tourism, a major industry in the D.C. area, was, as a result, negatively affected. This impact will be felt for some time, since overseas offices that give visas to foreigne...

Black And Minority Businesses Slammed By Government Shutdown, With Projected Losses Up To $450M - Black Enterprise Magazine

Contract and payment delays are among the largest setbacks hitting Black and other minority businesses amid the federal government shutdown. by Jeffrey McKinney. October 18, 2025 Black- and other minority-owned businesses are being slammed by the federal government shutdown, severely hindering their operating ability. Started on Oct. 1, the closure is on pace to be one of the longest in U.S. history. A new survey of those firms by the National Minority Supplier Development Council ( NMSDC ) shows they are being negatively impacted by economic weakness stemming from the shutdown. Simultaneously, the stoppage is projected to bring losses of between $400 million and $450 million for minority business enterprises (MBEs), despite when the government reopens, based on a new calculation by Creative Investment Research. That overall estimate includes $150 million in contract and payment delays, $125 million in reduced demand for business goods and services, $75 million in staffing reductions ...

The Real Damage of The Government Shutdown. Authored by Shea Carlberg, GWU (25). Edited by Diya Kumar, GWU (26).

We’re on Day 8 of the government shutdown and the Trump administration has taken on an aggressive campaign targeting Democrat-led cities. Like many of my peers, I wasn’t nearly as tuned into politics during the last shutdown in the winter of 2018 as I am now. Today, I overheard furloughed workers talking on the Metro and in the advocacy spaces at which I work, waiting and wondering how long they can hold onto work. Small businesses, contractors, and anyone deemed “non-essential” are particularly vulnerable. Not to mention the US’s longest shutdown—also under Trump—spanned two months. So every analyst I’ve listened to give their thoughts on the situation have pledged not to predict how long we will have to endure this. They do, however, all warn that more social programs will be cut as law enforcement troops expand their presence to new states. Shutdowns have become entangled with lawsuits and political maneuvering. Back in 2018, Trump used the shutdown to halt discoveries in a state-le...

Renewing Politics from the Ground Up: Faith, Dignity, and Organizing for the Common Good. Isabela Butler and Vanessa Muturi.

At a time when American politics is marked by polarization and fatigue, Georgetown University’s Initiative on Catholic Social Thought and Public Life hosted “Renewing Politics from the Ground Up” with a panel that asked what moral and communal renewal might look like in an age of distrust. The event featured Julie Chávez Rodríguez, Nicholas Hayes-Mota, Rosie Villegas-Smith, and Joanna Arellano-Gonzalez, each reflecting on how faith, organizing, and community can reconnect politics with the real needs of people. The First Question: What Principle Guides and Informs Community Organizing? Each speaker began by naming the value that grounds their work. Julie Chávez Rodríguez emphasized solidarity and coalition building, recalling moments when Latino and Filipino workers in Los Angeles stood together during ICE raids and when local businesses joined them in resistance. For Rodríguez, true organizing means unity across struggle and shared survival. Nicholas Hayes-Mota focused on the dignity ...

Congressional Black Caucus Foundation’s Annual Conference dispensed navigable tools for Black entrepreneurs. Shea Carlberg and Vanessa Muturi.

As first-time attendees of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, the workshops were inspiring. We witnessed the mobilization of advocates, teachers, and entrepreneurs to name a few. Seeing Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) speak to her mega fanbase was moving, including the moment when a ninth grader asked how she could make a difference at her age and how the representative kept going through it all (to which Crockett herself was touched and swiftly answered she has the will to fight on for young people like her). Civic engagement was at the heart of the weeklong, jam-packed conference from impelling Black youth to lead skill-based job sectors to standing strong with Black women in the prevention of further maternal mortality rises. A major toolkit supplied to attendees was the Black political playbook. Wealth builds wealth, and wealth comes from wealth. This was a repeated point of discussion during the “Forward Together” equity panel and similar talks dedicated to building Black wea...

September 2025 Unemployment Forecast

Unemployment rates rose for most groups in August, and our forecast suggests the same trend is likely to continue into September. The numbers are small—but they point to deeper structural issues in the labor market, especially for women of color. What We Saw in August According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), unemployment increased across nearly all groups in August 2025. Black women, Hispanic men, and Hispanic women experienced some of the sharpest increases. The only exception was Asian workers, whose unemployment rate declined. This broad uptick suggests momentum that is unlikely to reverse in the short term. Forecast for September 2025 (Seasonally Adjusted, %) Black Women (20+) : 6.7% in August → 6.9% in September ( higher ) Hispanic/Latina Women (20+) : 4.9% in August → 5.0% in September ( slightly higher ) White Men (20+) : 3.7% in August → 3.8% in September ( flat to slightly higher ) Overall (20+ years) : 4.2% in August → 4.3% in September ( slightly...

AI’s Emerging Superintelligent Behavior: Should We Be Scared? By Shea Carlberg ('25) and Diya Kumar, ('26) George Washington University.

There are many predictions for how the AI industry game of chicken between China and the US will intensify amid a heated global trade battle. Being in a room with AI entrepreneurs, academics and policy makers at the Semafor “ AI Safety in the Age of Superintelligence ” conversation on September 30 underscored some multifaceted perspectives. The event's two speakers, Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) and New York Times bestselling author Nate Soares had widely different concerns. While Sen. Kelly grounded his probe in the immediate pressures facing his constituents—such as the strain that AI-driven demand has placed on Tucson's energy grids— Soares could not be clearer about the urgency for global coordination in order to avoid superintelligence “killing” us all. Senator Kelly framed the issue in terms of economic disruption. He estimated that by 2030, approximately 12% of economic output generated in Phoenix could be tied directly to AI, raising the specter of millions of workers displ...

Recap: Black Money Matters VI. Isabela Butler, Gonzaga University.

On September 25, 2025, leaders, policymakers, and community advocates gathered in Washington, D.C. for Black Money Matters VI, a forum tackling one of the most urgent questions of our time: " Can we stop Black wealth from reaching zero by 2053?" The event, presented by the Financial Services Innovation Coalition (FSIC) and Southern Christian Leadership Conference Global Policy Initiative (SCL-GPI), brought together economists, congressmen, business leaders, and grassroots voices to confront the systemic barriers undermining Black economic power. Opening discussions underscored the stark reality: despite the largest intergenerational transfer of wealth in history of an estimated $106 trillion, only a fraction is reaching Black families. Thaddaus Dawson noted that Black Americans hold only about $3 trillion of this wealth, when accounting for the percentage of the American Black population, it would require at least $10 trillion. Without intervention, speakers warned, the racia...

The Essential Plumbing of the Economy. Diya Kumar, Intern, George Washington University

“Politicizing federal statistics and questioning the integrity of those who produce them harms decision making in every sector.”  Cecilia Rouse, President,  Brookings Institution at "The Importance of Credible Government Economic Data to Business." September 18, 2025, https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-importance-of-credible-government-economic-data-to-business/ . Credible economic data is an incredibly relevant topic, vital not only for the business community but for all citizens. Indeed, when federal statistics are bent for politics, the cost ripples through every boardroom, newsroom, and household. Objective decision making relies on the best available data, especially federal data, to understand trends like employment and inflation, and to set expectations for the future. Thus, without trust in federal statistical reports and agencies, every decision relying on them suffers. A Culture of Objectivity The reliability and integrity of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS),...

Measuring Black Economic Power: Launch of the Black GDP Report

This week, at the Congressional Black Caucus Annual Legislative Conference (CBC ALC) , we are proud to launch the  Black GDP Report — a groundbreaking analysis that quantifies the economic contributions of Black Americans to the U.S. economy. For decades, policymakers, investors, and business leaders have overlooked the measurable economic power of Black communities. By applying the proven framework of the Latino GDP model, this new report captures the size, scale, and trajectory of Black economic activity—shedding light on both its resilience and its untapped potential. Key Findings Black GDP (2023): $1.6 trillion, comparable to the Canadian economy. Black Purchasing Power: $1.8 trillion in 2023, driving growth in housing, retail, technology, and cultural industries. Entrepreneurship: Over 3.5 million Black-owned businesses employ 1.2 million people and generate $200 billion annually. Labor Market Role: Black workers make up 13% of the U.S. labor force, concent...

POLITICO and Axios AI Tech Summits - ‘Sputnik’ Race Against China. Shea Carlberg and Isabela Butler. Edited by Diya Kumar.

The debate over how to regulate artificial intelligence is gaining momentum and yet a coherent path forward remains elusive. Two recent forums, one hosted by Politico and another by Axios, revealed just how divided policymakers, regulators, and industry leaders are. While both events emphasized the US's race against China, they diverged in sentiment. Politico’s arguments centered on ideology, global competition, and free speech, while Axios drilled down on jobs, transparency, and industry responsibility. At the Politico forum, much of the discussion revolved around America’s global standing in the AI race and its ideological battles at home. Sriram Krishnan, President Trump’s AI senior policy advisor, branded himself a “realist,” rejecting both “doomers” and “accelerationists.” Yet his rhetoric leaned accelerationist, as he dismissed California’s push for AI safety laws despite calling his own stance “regulation-first.” Krishnan framed AI as a “Sputnik race,” cautioning how it woul...

A Young Voice for the Future: Our Amicus Brief in Lighthiser v. Trump

On September 8, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of Montana granted our motion to file an amicus curiae brief in Lighthiser, et al. v. Trump, et al. — a case that strikes at the heart of climate justice and intergenerational equity. This is not just another legal filing. It is a statement that the economic and health consequences of dismantling climate protections are real, measurable, and disproportionately borne by young people . And fittingly, the brief was authored by a young leader: Connor Stout, age 20, a senior at Denison University Why We Filed The challenged executive orders — 14154, 14156, and 14261 — expand fossil fuel development while dismantling climate mitigation and monitoring systems. Our brief demonstrates that these actions are not only environmentally reckless, but also economically catastrophic . EPA data shows that clean air protections prevented 230,000 premature deaths and preserved $1.8 trillion in economic value in 2020 alone. Rolling b...

August 2025 PPI: Behind the Headline Decline, Minority Businesses Still Face Rising Costs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand fell 0.1% in August , after a sharp 0.7% increase in July and a modest 0.1% gain in June . On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 2.6% , while core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) increased 0.3% in August , marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise and a 2.8% annual increase —the highest since March 2025. At first glance, the decline may suggest relief. But when examined sector by sector, the structural cost shift is still very much in play—hidden cost pressures continue to weigh on the businesses least able to absorb them. Structural Cost Shift: Masked by Averages A structural cost shift occurs when price declines in non-essential categories obscure the rising cost of essentials—food, housing, energy, transportation, and healthcare. This disproportionately affects Black and minority-owned businesses, which: Operate with slimmer margins and less access to affordable ...