The delayed release of September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) — now scheduled for Friday, October 24, 2025 — comes at a crucial moment. With Federal Reserve officials weighing whether to cut the benchmark Federal Funds Rate to ease short-term borrowing costs, this data release will heavily influence the next policy move. Forecast: Inflation Running Hot Our forecast projects that headline CPI rose 3.2% year-over-year in September , slightly above expectations, while Core CPI (excluding food and energy) likely came in at 3.3% . On a month-to-month basis, prices probably increased 0.5% , reflecting continuing upward pressure from goods and housing costs. While energy prices eased modestly, tariff-related price pressures and supply-chain re-shoring costs have kept inflation “sticky.” Durable goods categories such as furniture, appliances, and home fixtures — many of which depend on imported materials — remain notably affected by tariffs . These categories alone may have contri...
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