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Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model Predicts Unemployment will be 7.7%

The U.S.Employment Situation report will be released on Friday at 8:30 am. According to the Department of Labor, "Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force." The consensus forecast is for a 7.8% to 8.0% unemployment rate. Our Fully Adjusted Return (TM) Model, combining social and financial data, predicts a 7.7% rate.

As noted in the Washington Post, "Hurricane Sandy could complicate Friday’s release of the October U.S. jobs report, the final snapshot of employment before the presidential election. Labor Department officials are still hopeful that they can release the report as scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Friday. But they acknowledged Monday that the storm could cause a delay." While the storm may impact the report release date, it will have no impact on the report itself. The storm will influence the November jobs figures, to be released on December 7th.

Recent Forecast Track Record

Our last forecast called for a 2.1% rate of growth in GDP, or gross domestic product. We said then that "forecasters estimate that the U.S. economy grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate during the third quarter, from July through September..GDP is the broadest measure of the nation’s economic activity, aiming to capture the value of goods and services produced in the United States during a given time period." GDP was released on Friday, October 26th at 8:30am.

The actual GDP number reported was 2.0%.

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