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Showing posts from February, 2025

Macron's US Visit: Perspective of a Moroccan Student Studying in France and Visiting the US. Anas Faiq, Audencia Business School.

On February 24, 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron visited Washington, D.C., for high-stakes discussions with U.S. President Donald Trump. The visit came on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that continues to shape global security and economic policies. While both leaders expressed a shared desire for peace, their approaches differed significantly, particularly regarding the role of Europe and the economic implications of ending the war. 1. The Ukraine Peace Process Macron emphasized that any peace agreement should be fair and verifiable, rejecting a rushed settlement that could leave Ukraine vulnerable to future aggression. He insisted on a sustainable resolution that preserves Ukraine’s sovereignty and ensures long-term stability in Europe. Macron also reiterated France’s support for increased European defense spending, urging European nations to take greater responsibility for their own security rather than relying solely on U.S. military support....

계엄령과 제주항공 참사: 한국 경제를 뒤흔든 두 가지 위기 (환율과 주식시장에 미친 영향)

2024 년  12 월 ,  대한민국은 전례 없는 큰 위기에 직면했다 .  윤석열 대통령의 계엄령 선포로 인한 정치적 불안과 제주항공 여객기 추락 참사가 연이어 발생하며 ,  환율과 주식시장을 비롯한 주요 경제 지표에 심각한 혼란이 초래되었다 .  본 글은 이러한 위기가 경제에 미친 영향을 분석하고 ,  회복을 촉진하며 경제적 회복탄력성을 강화하기 위한 정책적 대응 방안을 제안한다 . 계엄령 선포는 한국의 국내 ,  국제 경제 활동에 필수적인 안정성을 심각하게 훼손했다 .  계엄령 발표 직후 ,  외국인 투자자들은 한국의 정치적 위험을 재평가하며 대규모 자본을 유출시켰고 ,  이는 원화 가치의 급격한 하락을 초래했다 .  원화 약세는 수출 중심 산업에 일시적인 이점을 제공했지만 ,  원자재와 에너지의 높은 수입 의존도로 인해 제조업 및 소비재 산업의 비용 상승을 초래하며 그 효과가 상쇄되었다 .  생산 비용 증가로 인해 국내 소비가 위축되었고 ,  이는 인플레이션 압력을 가중시키는 결과를 낳았다 . 또한 정치적 불확실성은 투자자 신뢰를 약화시켜 기존 자금의 이탈뿐만 아니라 신규 외국인 투자의 유입도 중단시켰다 .  금융시장 안정성에 대한 우려가 커졌으며 ,  이는 글로벌 경제 불확실성과 긴축적인 통화정책이 이미 부담을 주고 있는 상황에서 더욱 악화되었다 . 계엄령으로 나라가 혼란한 가운데 발생한 제주항공 참사는  179 명의 희생자를 낳으며 한국의 항공 및 관광 산업에 즉각적이고 심대한 영향을 미쳤다 .  사고 직후 제주항공의 주가가 폭락했고 ,  이는 다른 항공사들까지 연쇄적인 주가 하락을 겪게 만들었다 .  안전성 우려가 확산되며 투자자들의 신뢰가 악화되었고 ,  그 여파는 관광 ,  호텔 ,  항공기 제조업 등 관련 산업 전반으로 번졌다 .  이...

Analysis of January 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) by Geography and Industry for Black, Asian, Hispanic, and Women-Owned Businesses

Analysis of January 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) by Geography and Industry for Black, Asian, Hispanic, and Women-Owned Businesses The January 2025 Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a 0.4% increase in final demand , following a 0.5% rise in December 2024. The 12-month increase reached 3.5% , reinforcing continued inflationary pressures on businesses. This analysis examines the implications of this data across industries and geographic regions for Black, Asian, Hispanic, and women-owned businesses . 1. Industry-Specific Impacts Retail and Wholesale Trade Final demand trade services increased by 0.1% in January . Margins for food and alcohol retailing and apparel retailing rose, affecting minority businesses in these industries. Apparel, jewelry, and accessories retailing saw price increases , which could disproportionately impact Black and Hispanic business owners who are overrepresented in this sector. Implications: Black and Hispanic entrepreneurs in retail may need to adjust pric...

The Impact of Martial Law and the Jeju Air Tragedy on the South Korean Economy. Jeongmin Yoon, Economist (Intern) Incheon National University.

  In December 2024, South Korea faced an unprecedented dual crisis: political instability triggered by President Yoon Suk-yeol’s imposition of martial law, and the tragic crash of a Jeju Air passenger plane. These events together precipitated significant disruptions across key economic indicators, notably exchange rates and the stock market. This study examines the economic fallout from these crises and proposes policy recommendations to facilitate recovery and strengthen economic resilience. The declaration of martial law severely undermined the stability essential for economic functionality. The announcement prompted a sharp depreciation of the Korean won, as foreign investors reassessed the country's political risk, leading to substantial capital outflows. This depreciation weakened the won against the U.S. dollar, creating a mixed economic impact. While a weaker currency offered temporary advantages for export-oriented industries, Korea’s heavy dependence on imported raw ma...

January 2025 CPI Analysis and Its Impact on Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

Source:  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes The January 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% from December 2024, pushing the 12-month inflation rate to 3.0% . This continued rise in inflation presents distinct challenges for Black and minority-owned businesses, particularly in key industries such as retail, construction, transportation, and food services. Source:  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes Sector-Specific Impacts on Minority Businesses 1. Retail & Consumer Goods (Black and Hispanic-Owned Businesses) Key Data: The index for food at home rose 0.5% , while food away from home increased 0.2% . Apparel prices declined 1.4% , and household furnishings dropped 0.2% . Impact: Minority-owned grocery stores and restaurants face higher procurement costs. Retail businesses may see reduced demand due to price-sensitive consumers adjusting spending. Strategy: B...

How Trump’s Economic Policies Could Impact Small Businesses, Black Firms. Anas Faiq, Audencia Business School.

Reports have raised concerns about the potential negative impact of former President Donald Trump's economic policies on small businesses, particularly those owned by Black entrepreneurs. These policies could adversely affect small enterprises in various sectors, leading to financial challenges and operational difficulties.  Additionally, Trump's decision to freeze tens of billions of dollars in federal funding has halted projects related to clean energy and conservation, which may have further implications for small businesses involved in these industries. The imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports is another policy move that has significant economic implications.  While intended to protect domestic industries, these tariffs have the potential to disrupt supply chains and increase costs for businesses that rely on these materials, including small enterprises. Investors are closely monitoring these developments, as evidenced by recent market reactions. For ins...

Analysis of January 2025 Unemployment by Race

The January 2025 Employment Situation Summary reveals slight improvements in the overall labor market, with the unemployment rate declining to 4.0% from 4.1% in December 2024. However, disparities persist across racial and ethnic groups. Key Trends and Racial Disparities: White Unemployment: 3.5% (down from 3.6%) – continues to be lower than the national average, reflecting stronger labor market stability. Black Unemployment: 6.2% (up from 6.1%) – remains the highest among racial groups, highlighting persistent structural inequities in job access and quality. Asian Unemployment: 3.7% (up from 3.5%) – showing volatility but still relatively low. Hispanic Unemployment: 4.8% (down from 5.1%) – showing the largest improvement, dropping below the 5.0% mark. Additional Observations: Teen unemployment remains elevated at 11.8%, but has improved from 12.4% in December. Adult women saw an improvement, with their unemployment rate dropping to 3.7%. The labor force participation rate increased sl...

Loss Generated by Elimination of DEI Contracts Estimated to be $1.6 trillion.

To calculate the actual LOSS, NOT SAVINGS generated by DOGE’s elimination of DEI contracts, we must consider the broad economic and social costs associated with racial discrimination in employment, housing, health disparities, entrepreneurship barriers, and overall economic productivity . These factors create hidden costs that far exceed the reported $1 billion in so-called "savings." 1. Economic Impact of Employment Discrimination Wage and Productivity Losses : Racial and gender discrimination in hiring, promotions, and wages reduces earnings and workforce productivity. A 2019 study from Citigroup estimated that racial discrimination cost the U.S. economy $16 trillion over the past two decades . Labor Market Exclusion : Discrimination against Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Indigenous workers reduces overall workforce participation and lowers GDP. Cost of Unemployment and Underemployment : The absence of DEI programs increases bias, making it harder for minorities to access j...

POLITICO Playbook: The First 100 Days Trade event. Anas Faiq, Audencia Business School.

During the POLITICO Playbook: The First 100 Days Trade event, White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro ( editor - the first former White House official to be imprisoned for a contempt of Congress conviction ), laid out his views on several key issues related to U.S. trade policy, the economy, and national security. One of his primary concerns was Canada’s and Mexico’s role in the fentanyl crisis, arguing that the expansion of fentanyl trafficking in these countries poses a significant threat to the United States. However, he emphasized that the fight against fentanyl is not a trade war but a drug war, highlighting the need for stronger enforcement measures to combat the flow of illicit drugs. Navarro also criticized the de minimis rule, which allows imports valued at $800 or less to enter the U.S. without being subject to tariffs. He argued that this loophole is being exploited by foreign manufacturers to undercut American businesses and that it should be r...

CIR Creates Community Recovery Investment Vehicle to Rebuild, Revitalize Fire-Affected Neighborhoods

CIR Creates Community Recovery Investment Vehicle to Rebuild, Revitalize Fire-Affected Neighborhoods Friday, January 24, 2025 marked the official debut of LACommunityRecoveryInvestmentFund.com , an investment vehicle dedicated to rebuilding resilient communities and preserving cultural and economic assets in the face of unprecedented challenges. See website above and  https://www.prlog.org/13058349-cir-creates-community-recovery-investment-vehicle-to-rebuild-revitalize-fire-affected-neighborhoods.html

Trump’s Tariffs: A Heavy Blow to Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

The impact of Trump's proposed tariffs on Black and minority-owned businesses could be significant and largely negative, given their reliance on cost-effective supply chains, imported goods, and price-sensitive consumers. Here’s a breakdown of how these tariffs might affect minority businesses: 1. Higher Costs for Minority-Owned Businesses Increased Prices on Raw Materials: Minority-owned businesses, particularly in manufacturing, construction, and retail, often rely on imported materials from Mexico, Canada, and China. A 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports will increase costs for businesses that source raw materials or finished products internationally​. Auto and Electronics Costs Rising: Many Black-owned businesses rely on affordable transportation and tech products. The auto industry, which frequently sources parts across borders, will see higher costs, leading to increased vehicle prices. Electronics, including smartphones and laptops,...