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Showing posts from August, 2025

Real GDP reported at an annualized rate of 3.3%, for 2nd Qtr 2025 up from the initial 3.0% estimate. Issues remain, however.

  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Second Estimate for Q2 2025, reporting: Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% , revised up from the initial 3.0% estimate. This rebound is largely tied to a sharp reduction in imports (after a surge in Q1), which mechanically lifted GDP by over five percentage points—since imports are subtracted in GDP calculations . Consumer spending also picked up more than previously thought, improving from an initial 1.4% estimate to about 1.6% . Real final sales to private domestic purchasers —a critical metric for underlying demand—was revised to  1.9% , up from 1.2%. Corporate profits turned around sharply, rising $65.5 billion in Q2 after a steep $90.6 billion decline in Q1 . Why Minority-Owned Businesses May Still Be Under Pressure 1. Import Sensitivity Across Regions & Industries Many Black‑ and minority‑owned firms in manufacturing, retail, hospitality, and construction rely on imported good...

Letter to the editor: Trump's threats to the Fed's independence must be resisted. American Banker Newspaper. August 21, 2025, 2:39 p.m. EDT.

Trump’s latest demand—that Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook resign—is more than political theater. It’s a strategic assault on the Fed’s independence and a troubling effort to expunge Black leadership from America’s most consequential economic institutions. Cook, the first Black woman appointed to the Fed’s Board of Governors, faces unsubstantiated mortgage-fraud allegations that come abruptly from Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and a known Trump affiliate. President Trump swiftly echoed these accusations via social media, demanding that she “resign, now!!!” No credible investigation or due process has confirmed wrongdoing—underscoring the politically expedient character of the charges. This incident is not isolated. Trump’s persistent efforts to pressure Chair Powell—mocking him publicly, criticizing Fed building renovations, and nominating rate-cut friendly governors like Stephen Miran—reveal a partisan campaign to reshape the Federal Reserve into an ins...

July 2025 PPI: A Structural Cost Surge Deepens Burden on Black Businesses

  July 2025 Producer Price Index Summary Analysis The Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand jumped 0.9% in July , marking the largest single-month increase since mid-2022. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 3.3% , indicating sustained producer-side inflation. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) mirrored this climb with a +0.6% monthly and +2.8% annual gain—the steepest in over three years. The spike was driven by final demand services (+1.1%) —along with price pressures in machinery wholesaling (+3.8%) , transportation, and accommodations. Final demand goods increased by 0.7% , largely due to surging food prices—particularly fresh and dry vegetables (+38.9%), meats, diesel, jet fuel, and eggs. Structural Cost Shift: What It Means for Minority-Owned Businesses A structural cost shift occurs when inflation disproportionately rises in essential sectors disproportionately impacting marginalized groups—while headline inflation may appea...

July 2025 CPI: Inflation Burden on Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July , keeping the annual inflation rate at 2.7% . Core inflation—excluding food and energy—remained elevated at 3.1% , the highest since February 2025. To many Black and minority-owned businesses , the numbers hide a troubling reality: inflation is shifting to the essentials, creating what economists call a structural cost shift —and that shift is hitting communities of color hardest. What is a Structural Cost Shift? A structural cost shift occurs when prices in essential categories rise faster than the overall inflation rate, while other goods remain flat or fall. This makes the headline CPI appear modest, even as the cost of living and doing business increases sharply for those who rely most on these essentials. For minority households and firms, the essentials are: Housing & rent Utilities & energy Food & groceries Transportation Healthcare When these categorie...

Black Unemployment in July 2025: Job Losses Continue

The latest July 2025 unemployment data confirms what we forecast: Black unemployment increased sharply, continuing the distressing trend we saw in June. According to figures compiled from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and our internal analysis, both Black men and women are facing ongoing employment instability—even as headline unemployment numbers may appear deceptively steady. 📉 Black Men: Unemployment Up, Participation Down Black male unemployment rose again—from 6.9% in June to 7.0% in July . This follows a sharp spike from 5.2% in May , representing one of the largest two-month increases outside of the COVID-19 crisis in over a decade. ( We forecast 7.1% .) 👩🏾 Black Women: Job Losses Pile Up For Black women, the story is one of quiet erosion . The unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% in May to 5.8% in June , and increased again to 6.3% in July . ( We forecast 6.4% .) ⚠️ The Real Crisis: Participation and Policy Blindness Black employment in July 2025 demonstrates a...