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Showing posts from June, 2025

May 2025 Personal Income & Outlays Report: Impact on Black-owned and Minority Businesses

📉 Main Takeaways from May 2025 Personal income dropped by $109.6 billion (−0.4%) , driven mainly by lower government social benefits and a decline in farm proprietors’ income. ( bea.gov ). Disposable personal income fell by 0.6% , while consumer spending edged down 0.1% . Government transfers (e.g., Social Security, SNAP, Medicaid) fell —impacting individuals who depend heavily on them . ⚠️ Potential Impacts on Black & Minority Businesses 1. Thinner Consumer Wallets Black and minority entrepreneurs often serve communities where residents rely more on government benefits. A reduction in transfers and disposable income means: Lower foot traffic at local shops Fewer discretionary purchases on services like haircare, dining, or childcare 2. Slower Spending on Goods Goods spending dropped by $49.2 billion (services rose slightly), suggesting discretionary goods—key revenue for many minority-owned retailers—are getting squeezed. 3. Supplemental Income Drop ...

Semiannual Monetary Policy Hearing. Gabriel Philipp, Connor Stout, Dylan Unruh, and Rohan Sivakumar

Chairman Powell, center. Connor Stout, right, front row in white shirt. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Powell’s opening remarks addressed the state of the economy, which he said was “solid”.  He reiterated the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate to ensure price stability (inflation control) and maintain near-full employment. To this end, Mr. Powell said that, currently, inflation remains a non-issue, and the labor market is near maximum employment. Furthermore, the Chair attributed strong Q1 figures to ‘front-loading’ – increases in imports and consumption in preparation for potential price shocks due to tariffs. Mr. Powell stood by the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady earlier this month and noted that the Federal Reserve will act largely based on the impacts of tariffs, noting the lag between the instatement of a tariff and when its effects become observable (as early as Q3).  For the moment, the economy is in a good place, and the risk of recession is perhaps overstated. Howe...

Gallery of Art Philosophical Discussion: Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

CIR Interns at the Gallery of Art. Rohan Sivakumar (Left), Connor Stout (Middle), Gabriel Philipp (Right). Viewing  Breezing Up (A Fair Wind) by Winslow Homer, 1873-76. On June 21, 2025, CIR Interns Rohan Sivakumar (University of Chicago), Connor Stout (Denison University Ohio) and I, Gabriel Philipp (Siena College) attended a philosophical discussion on friendship at the National Gallery of Art. The event was organized by Mr. Juan Carlos as part of the “Philosophy Explained Through Art” series. It drew a large and diverse crowd, with attendees from various backgrounds bringing different perspectives on both philosophy and the art tied to the theme of friendship. The main goal was to reflect on and discuss the nature of friendship, ultimately asking: What does it mean to be a friend, and what defines a best friend? What is Friendship?  CIR Interns at the Gallery of Art. Gabriel Philipp (Left), Rohan Sivakumar (Middle), Connor Stout (Right)  There was an en...

Juneteenth. Adam Zakman University of California – Davis

The stress of cooking and finding enough chairs for Thanksgiving dinner, the fun of watching fireworks on Independence Day, finding a parking spot at the mall the week before Christmas, dealing with annoying relatives: activities and experiences that dominate our attention and define every holiday. People get so caught up in the rituals and minutiae of holidays that they lose sight of what they are celebrating. As much as holidays are a celebration of an event or person, they are, more fundamentally, a call for the remembrance of the virtues symbolized by those people and events. Christmas is not about who has the most valuable present waiting for them under the tree. Independence Day does not stand as an anti-British holiday. Thanksgiving certainly does not celebrate the history of European and Native American relations. They celebrate some of the foundational pillars of virtue our country rests upon: the generosity and the privilege of having enough to give, the proclamation of, and ...

Environmental Justice Summit at Howard University. Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

Environmental Justice Summit Panel #3 with Tracey Thompson, Dennis Chestnut, Dr. Estelle-Marie Montgomery, Latricea Adams, Erica Green, and Tobaris Smith On June 17, the Greater Washington Region Clean Cities Coalition (GWRCCC) hosted an Environmental Justice Summit at Howard University. The event featured a series of panels offering diverse perspectives on urban environmental challenges, like heat islands, poor air quality, health impacts from pollution, and energy development, along with potential solutions to improve community well-being. What’s up with the environment?  A few key points stood out from the event, especially the strong focus on advocacy in its many forms. Speakers emphasized the power of community organizing, grassroots efforts, and public education to raise awareness about environmental challenges. There was a recurring theme of unity, bringing people together to talk about shared experiences, build networks, and push for change. The idea was that strength in nu...

What the AWS AI Expo Revealed About Our Tech Future. Gabriel Philipp, Siena College.

Last week, (6/10 and 11) Amazon Web Services (AWS) hosted its AI Expo (AWS Summit Washington, DC - Generative AI solutions) where top tech companies demonstrated how artificial intelligence is rapidly reshaping industries. From data organization and legacy code transformation to complex scientific modeling, each firm offered a unique glimpse into how AI is being applied today—and where it might lead us tomorrow. Nvidia had one of the more interesting demos; they're using multiple AI models to handle specific tasks with existing research and data. One example: their software took a set of medical research notes and built a scale model of a protein. IBM showed off a system that updates outdated code to work on modern platforms. Datadog is using AI to boost how it collects and organizes data from websites. Other companies are also finding creative ways to use AI for software protection, data analysis, and development. Takeaway:  With AI’s rapid development, it’s exciting to imagine th...

May 2025 PPI Overview: What This Means for Black & Minority-Owned Businesses

  📊 May 2025 PPI Overview The PPI for final demand rose 0.1% in May, following a flat reading in April and a 0.2% rise in February.  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm On a year‑over‑year basis, producer prices increased 2.6% , up slightly from 2.5% in April. The modest monthly gain was driven by a 0.1% increase in final demand services (led by trade margins) and a 0.2% rise in goods prices , while energy remained flat. Excluding volatile categories like food, energy, and trade services, core PPI rose 0.1% in May and 2.7% over the past year. What This Means for Black & Minority-Owned Businesses 1. Trade Services (Retail & Wholesale) 0.4% increase in trade margins squeezed small retailers and wholesalers. Impact: Black and Hispanic-owned firms face higher sourcing costs—further limiting their ability to absorb or pass along price increases. 2. Goods Sector (Food, Metals, Energy) Final demand goods edged up 0.2%, driven by non-...

The Future of American Energy: Gridlock, Growth, and a Race Against Time By Connor Stout (Denison University) and Gabriel Philipp (Siena College)

Connor Stout, left and Gabriel Philipp, right. At the 2025 Politico Energy Summit on June 10th, leading lawmakers, CEOs, policy advocates, and former regulators gathered to dissect the energy future of the United States. Beneath the technical language and party lines, a powerful theme emerged; namely that the U.S. is heading into a period of intensifying energy demand, regulatory turbulence, and geopolitical competition. While consensus formed around some core issues, deep divisions remain over how to meet the moment. The Upcoming Energy Crisis: The unofficial theme of the summit was that the U.S. needs more energy in the upcoming decade. Nearly every speaker touched on the idea that the current energy infrastructure will not be capable of supporting the growth of artificial intelligence, data centers, and onshoring of manufacturing. AI, in particular, dominated the conversation. Industry leaders stressed that without a rapid expansion in power generation the U.S. could lose its techno...

May 2025 CPI Overview: Impact on Black and Minority Firms

  The CPI for All Urban Consumers rose 0.1% in May (seasonally adjusted), down from 0.2% in April, with the annual inflation rate at 2.4% , up from 2.3% in April. Core CPI ( excluding food and energy ) also saw a 0.1% increase , holding steady at 2.8% year-over-year. Food prices climbed 0.3% , and energy costs dropped 1.0% for the month, driven largely by 2.6% lower gasoline prices. Key service categories like medical care, motor vehicle insurance, home furnishings, personal care, and education posted monthly increases between 0.3%–0.7% , while airline fares and used car prices declined. 🧩 Impact on Minority and Black-Owned Businesses 1. Food & Hospitality Impact: Food price increases (+0.3%) put pressure on grocery stores and restaurants, many of which are Black- and Hispanic-owned. They face rising packaging and ingredient costs. Action: These businesses should diversify suppliers and consider modest menu price adjustments to preserve margins. ...

“Yet Here I Am: Lessons from a Black Man’s Search for Home” by Jonathan Capehart. Gabriel Philipp, Intern, Siena College.

Jonathan Capehart (Left) and Michele Norris (Right) at the Library of Congress. Photo by Gabriel Philipp On Thursday, June 5, 2025 in the US Library of Congress Thomas Jefferson Building's Great Hall, Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Jonathan Capehart discussed his memoir, “Yet Here I Am: Lessons from a Black Man’s Search for Home.” Capehart was in conversation with journalist Michele Norris. He discussed his experiences growing up and his path through his career in journalism. I found it an interesting talk that connected to a very personal aspect of my life. Socially Disconnected:  The thing that stuck with me most during the discussion was Capehart’s confession that he felt he didn’t belong in Washington, DC. He went on to talk about his feelings of disconnection from people. He experienced this as an environment where people had their separate groups, and that he felt it was hard to feel connected: if you’re not in the group then there’s only so much you can do to be conn...

Black Unemployment Rate: May 2025 Update — Focus on Black Women

Forecast (Black Women) : 6.4% Actual (Black Women) : 6.2% We accurately predicted a rise in the unemployment rate for Black women , but the increase was less severe than expected . The direction of the rate for Black women validates our concerns, even though the rate itself came in below our projection. Key Takeaways from the Data Unemployment Among Black Women : Rose to 6.2% in May 2025 , up from 6.1% in April: Still notably elevated and well above the national average, indicating continued labor market fragility for this demographic. Labor Force Participation : Participation among Black individuals declined slightly—from 62.1% to 62.0%—reflecting growing discouragement and withdrawal from the labor force. Employment Level : Modest gains in overall employment helped cushion what might have been a more dramatic rise in the unemployment rate. However, the nature of this job growth—its quality, sector concentration, and sustainability—remains a concern. For...

Insights from The Hill’s Invest In America Talk with Representative David Schweikert. Connor Stout, Political Economy Intern, Denison University

President Donald Trump has a history of railing against US economic policy; many of his campaign promises rely on the premise that our economy needs to be fixed. His attempt to fix the US economy through the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) will reportedly increase the deficit by between 3 and 5 trillion dollars. US Representative and Chair of the Joint Economic Committee David Schweikert of Arizona talked with Betty Liu of The Hill (shown in photo, left) on June 4th to address some of the concerns both surrounding the bill and the US economy as a whole. The Economy: According to Rep. Schweikert, the most significant factor driving the growth of U.S. sovereign debt is demographics. As the age group of 65 and older grows due to longer life expectancies and the aging of the Baby Boomer generation, it places enormous strain on federal programs like Medicare and Social Security, both of which are major components of the federal budget. The 65+ population is typically retired, which means they...

Black Unemployment May 2025

Based on the most recent data, the unemployment rate for Black women aged 20 and over increased from 5.1% in March to 6.1% in April 2025, marking the highest level since 2022 . This rise was driven by a loss of 106,000 jobs among Black women during April. Considering these trends, it is plausible that the unemployment rate for Black women remained elevated in May 2025. Factors contributing to this include ongoing reductions in federal employment, rollbacks of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, and economic pressures in sectors where Black women are overrepresented, such as retail, healthcare, education, and public services. Black unemployment rates are historically more volatile due to structural labor market inequities, lower wealth buffers, industry concentration, and sensitivity to policy shifts.  Based on the available data and prevailing economic trends, it is reasonable to estimate that the unemployment rate for Black women aged 20 and over in May 2025 likely...