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IMF Spring Meeting: Regional Economic Outlook. Sol Tran, Whitman College.

The IMF/World Bank Annual Spring Meetings ran from April 13 to 17, and I was fortunate to have the opportunity to listen to several of the Regional Economic Outlook press briefings that accompanied them, including briefings from the Asia and Pacific Department, Africa Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, European Department, and Western Hemisphere Department. Overview: The war in the Middle East rewrote everything Every single briefing, whether it was on Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East itself, Europe, or the Western Hemisphere returned to one main factor: the war that broke out in the Middle East as of February 2026. This changed the economic forecast in ways that nobody modeled just months earlier. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, the Strait of Hormuz, though which roughly one-fifth of the global oil supply and more than a quarter of the global liquid natural gas (LNG) passes, came close to a standstill. The European gas prices rose by roughly 60 percent...
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The Federal Reserve’s “Troubling Reality” for the Wealthy Is a Warning for Everyone Else — Especially Black America

Figure 1 - Federal Reserve Distributional Financial Accounts (DFA): Wealth Concentration, Pandemic Bump and Post 2022 Reversal. DFA data via FRED. FAR Stress Ratio is a CIR-Developed metric: Top 1% Share divided by the Bottom 50% Share.  The latest report highlighted in Federal Reserve System data and discussed in this TheStreet article ( TheStreet ) makes a stark point: wealthy Americans are pulling further ahead at a pace “with no historical precedent,” reshaping how the economy functions beneath seemingly resilient headline numbers.  This is not just a story about the rich getting richer. It is evidence of a structural transformation of the U.S. economy — one that I have warned about for decades in my books , regulatory filings , and amicus briefs . The implications are particularly severe for Black and minority-owned firms, whose wealth base is thinner, whose capital access is more constrained, and whose exposure to macroeconomic shocks is higher. A K-Shaped Economy Is Now...
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March 2026 CPI Jumps — What It Means for Black and Minority Firms

  The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a sharp increase in inflation , signaling renewed economic pressure on Black- and minority-owned firms. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that consumer prices rose 3.3% over the 12 months ending in March , up from 2.4% in February . Core CPI rose 2.6% , while energy prices surged 12.5% year-over-year and food increased 2.7% . ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) This represents a meaningful re-acceleration in inflation , with the largest increases concentrated in categories that disproportionately affect minority businesses and the communities they serve. Why the March CPI Is Especially Important This CPI release changes the economic narrative: Inflation re-accelerated Energy costs spiked sharply Core inflation remains sticky Food prices continue rising This combination creates a double squeeze on Black and minority firms: Higher operating costs Reduced customer purchasing power Industry Impact on Black and Minority Firms Black and mino...
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The Number of Unemployed Black Women Fell by 113,000 Persons in March, 2026

The US unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline. BLS reported that the number of unemployed Black women fell from 804,000 to 691,000, by 113,000 persons in March, 2026. Note that the reported industries with job gains do not match industries where Black women are employed. Overall payroll employment increasing by 178,000 would mean 63% of the new jobs went to Black women. This is unlikely and indicates a need for further review. In other words, we do not trust these initial numbers... Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian (3.7 percent) decreased in March. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (13.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (7.1 percent), or Hispanic (4.8 percent) showed li...
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Public meeting at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act. Georgia Kogut, GWU.

On March 26, 2026, I attended a public meeting at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act. I expected something highly technical and removed from everyday realities, but the conversation returned to the same concerns.  The meeting was divided into four panels: supervision, banking regulations, innovation, and consumer protection. The discussion centered on two themes: inconsistency in supervision and the pressure placed on community banks.  Panelists came from different institutions, but their concerns overlapped. The first panel on bank supervision made it clear that the issue is not a lack of rules, but how unevenly those rules are applied. Several speakers highlighted the issue of weak communication between regulators and banks, noting that expectations shift depending on the examiner or agency involved, which creates unpredictability that makes the system more difficult to navigate.  Instead of operating wit...
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At POLITICO’s Economy Summit. Amza Togore (Trinity College).

At POLITICO’s Economy Summit on March 25, 2026, the conversation around trade captured something bigger than tariffs alone: the sense that economic policy is now inseparable from political struggle.  The summit included a trade panel, “What’s Next for Trump’s Tariffs?,” with Greta Peisch, Everett Eissenstat, and Eugene Laney, along with a separate conversation with Peter Navarro.  That lineup mattered. It signaled that trade is no longer being discussed only as a technical issue for economists or lawyers but as a live political battleground involving executive power, business strategy, and the price Americans pay for everyday life.  What makes this moment especially important is that it comes after a major legal shock. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling that Congress, not the president, holds the authority to impose tariffs of that scope.  But...
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What the PPI Report Is Really Telling Us. Amza Togore (Trinity College).

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release did not just come in elevated—it came in decisively hot. A 0.7% monthly increase, following 0.5% in January, is a pattern. And when you annualize the recent momentum, you are looking at 4–5%  annualized inflation pressure. Remember, PPI is not a prediction. It is a diagnostic tool. It tells us where inflation stress is forming inside the economy—before it becomes visible to consumers. And right now, that stress is building quietly but broadly. Goods prices are reaccelerating. Service costs are not cooling. Food costs moved higher. That combination matters more than the level of inflation. It is the distribution and direction that is important. We have now moved from: 0.4% → 0.5% → 0.7% Can We Use This to Predict Inflation? Yes — But Carefully If we take recent monthly PPI data and run a simple projection: [(1-mDec)(1-mJan)(1-mFeb)]**4 - 1] We get annualized inflation from 4 to 5 %. This is a meaningful, but PPI does not translate cleanl...
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