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Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Confirms Risks We Noted Earlier

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s August 28, 2026 Jackson Hole speech deserves careful attention because it provides the clearest indication yet of how he intends to define Federal Reserve credibility. Warsh declared that the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target is “firm” and “fixed,” said current inflation remains too high and concluded that the Fed’s “predominant focus right now should be on prices.” He also made clear that he regards short-term interest rates as the Fed’s predominant monetary-policy tool and unconventional interventions as appropriate principally for genuine crises. Warsh and Rate Hikes: CIR On Point On July 29, Creative Investment Research (CIR) issued a warning titled “Federal Reserve May Consider Rate Hike to Establish Chairman Warsh’s Inflation-fighting Credibility.” We argued that Warsh faced an unusual institutional problem: as a newly installed chairman operating amid intense political pressure for lower rates, he might feel compelled to establi...
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The $40 Trillion Debt Crisis Was a Choice — and Black America Will Pay a Disproportionate Price

The United States has now crossed a fiscal threshold that once seemed unimaginable: federal debt exceeds $40 trillion .  Reuters reports that approximately $32.3 trillion is debt held by the public , with another roughly $7.8 trillion in intragovernmental holdings . It also reports that federal debt has increased by approximately $11.6 trillion during Donald Trump's two terms to date . For decades, Republican fiscal policy has combined large tax cuts with continued federal spending and then used the resulting deficits to justify demands for reductions in domestic programs. That pattern stretches from Ronald Reagan through George W. Bush and Donald Trump. The assertion that Republicans as a whole deliberately want the United States to default cannot be dismissed . Concerns about deliberate default strategies are not imaginary. In May 2023, Donald Trump publicly urged congressional Republicans to allow the United States to default if Democrats did not accept spending cuts. We argue...
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Senate Banking Hearing Overview: Capital Access for Small Businesses from a Gen-Z Perspective. Namrud Gemu, Wheaton High School

Mr. Gemu On August 6, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee held a hearing titled "Empowering Main Street by Unlocking Access to Capital." The hearing focused on legislative and regulatory proposals aimed at making it easier for entrepreneurs and small businesses to build wealth and access capital outside major financial hubs. The core debate of the hearing revolved around how small businesses across America secure funding.  Right now, access to startup capital is heavily concentrated in major financial hubs like Wall Street and Silicon Valley. If you are an entrepreneur operating outside those elite net works, getting a traditional bank loan or securing venture capital can be a massive uphill battle.  To address this, committee members proposed modernizing regulations related to those established under the 2012 JOBS Act to make it easier for community banks and credit unions to lend money to local founders.  The discussion also touched on expanding who qualifies as an "acc...
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July PPI Is Flat, but Black and Minority-Owned Businesses Are Not Out of the Inflation Woods

The July 2026 Producer Price Index offers what initially looks like encouraging news: producer prices were unchanged during the month. But for Black-owned and other minority-owned businesses, the headline number does not tell the whole story. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July after declining 0.1 percent in June and increasing 0.5 percent in May. Yet producer prices remain 4.7 percent higher than a year ago .  Cost categories most relevant to minority businesses continue to rise. For minority firms operating with smaller cash reserves, limited access to affordable credit, and less bargaining power with suppliers, the difference between "zero inflation" and continued underlying cost pressure is significant. Construction Costs Jump 2.2% Prices for final demand construction increased 2.2 percent in July. That matters because construction and contracting represent important areas of minority business a...
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July CPI Looks Better — Perhaps Too Conveniently Better

The July 2026 Consumer Price Index appears, at first glance, to deliver exactly the inflation story policymakers and financial markets would like to see. The Consumer Price Index increased just 0.1 percent in July , following a 0.4 percent decline in June. Annual inflation edged down from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent , while core CPI slowed to 2.5 percent year-over-year . That is certainly better than the inflation surge seen earlier this year. But the July report deserves more scrutiny than the headline numbers are likely to receive. The issue is that the apparent improvement depends heavily on statistical adjustments, volatile energy prices, and methodological choices that can make a small monthly change look more definitive than it really is. For Black- and minority-owned businesses, which make decisions based on actual fuel bills, rents, insurance premiums, food costs, and borrowing expenses, the distinction matters. The Headline Number Is Doing a Lot of Work BLS reported a seasonall...
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Cooperation Can't Wait: Why Minority Businesses Must Collaborate NOW!

The changing policy environment surrounding diversity, immigration, federal contracting, and economic opportunity presents serious challenges for minority-owned businesses. But it may also create something that has historically been difficult to achieve: sustained economic cooperation across racial and ethnic communities. The central question is no longer simply how Black businesses, Hispanic businesses, Asian American businesses, immigrant entrepreneurs, Native businesses, women-owned firms, or other historically excluded entrepreneurs protect their individual interests. The more important question may be:  What can these businesses accomplish together? A Changing Economic Environment Federal policy toward diversity and contracting has changed substantially. In March 2026, the Administration issued an executive order targeting what it defines as racially discriminatory DEI activities by federal contractors and subcontractors. The order specifically includes vendor agreements withi...
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July Job Losses Signal U.S. Labor Market Has Entered a More Dangerous Phase

The July 2026 employment report provides some of the clearest evidence yet that the U.S. labor market is losing momentum, according to an analysis by Creative Investment Research. Although the headline unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent , nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000 jobs , while the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised previously reported May and June employment growth downward by a combined 103,000 jobs . The figures represent a significant deterioration from the employment conditions reported earlier this year and reinforce concerns raised by Creative Investment Research following the May and June employment reports. According to the July Employment Situation data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, payroll employment declined by 23,000, compared with an average monthly increase of only 34,000 during the preceding 12 months. Local government education lost 50,000 jobs, retail trade lost 19,000, and financial activities continued to contract, losing anot...
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