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The Jobs Slowdown Isn’t Equal — And It Never Is

The latest coverage from Reuters and Axios confirms what we’ve been documenting for more than a year : when the U.S. labor market weakens, Black workers—especially Black women and Black youth—are hit first and hardest . Key data callouts (Nov 2025): 🔴 Black unemployment surged to 8.3% , nearly double the national rate 🔴 Black teen unemployment exceeded 30% , a level with long-term scarring effects 🔴 Public-sector pullbacks and service-sector softness are disproportionately harming Black workers This is not a surprise . It is the continuation of a structural pattern we have been tracking in real time. What We’ve Been Saying — And Proving — All Along 📉 Black women lost 198,000 jobs from Jan. to Nov. 2025 , far more than any other demographic group 📉 Employment declines began months before headlines acknowledged labor market weakness 📉 National averages continue to mask racial and gender disparities Our prior analyses: ➡️ Black women’s job losses are the canary in the coal mine ...
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November 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Overview — What the Numbers Show (With a Big Caution)

The November 2025 CPI release reported a 2.7 % annual rise in consumer prices, with food up ~2.6 % and energy up 4.2 % over the last year. Core (excluding food and energy) rose 2.6 % — driven by shelter (3 %) and medical services (3.3 %). Bureau of Labor Statistics But the CPI estimates for October 2025 were based partly on nonsurvey data due to the federal government shutdown, raising legitimate concerns about accuracy and potential understatement of real inflation pressures.   Below, we infer impacts on Black and minority firms by linking price trends in key CPI categories to industries and geographies where Black and minority firms are disproportionately concentrated and where their customers spend. 2. Industry Breakout: How Inflation Pressures Hit Minority Firms Differently A. Retail & Consumer Services CPI Signals: Food pricing (especially food at home, meats, beverages) remains elevated.  Used cars & transportation services have seen price ch...

BLS Employment Situation report - November, 2025

Geography and Industry Expose Unequal Impacts on Black and Minority-Owned Firms The latest BLS Employment Situation report makes clear that labor market stress is not evenly distributed. For Black and minority-owned firms, where job losses are occurring matters as much as how many jobs are lost . Geography and industry concentration combine to amplify risk for minority businesses in ways that are largely invisible in national averages. Geographic Concentration Magnifies Risk Black and minority-owned firms are disproportionately concentrated in urban cores, Southern states, and large metropolitan areas that are more sensitive to public spending cycles, service-sector demand, and government employment trends. Key geographic pressure points include: Southern states with large Black populations, where employment growth has slowed in education, healthcare, and public administration Major metro areas reliant on government, nonprofit, healthcare, and hospitality employment Legacy industri...

What the Fed did today — and why it matters

On December 10, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered its federal-funds rate by 0.25 percentage points , bringing the target range to 3.50%–3.75% . Federal Reserve The Fed cited slower job growth, a rising unemployment rate, and still-elevated inflation as factors — choosing to act now to support employment, while leaving open further adjustments depending on future data.  For Minority Business Enterprises (MBEs)— most of which operate as small businesses — this decision has potentially significant consequences. Why rate cuts tend to benefit MBEs 💸 Lower cost of borrowing and improved cash flow When the Fed cuts its benchmark rate, banks often reduce their prime and lending rates in response — which tends to make loans, lines of credit, and business-credit cards cheaper.  For businesses with variable-rate debt, this lowers monthly interest payments automatically; for those seeking new financing, access becomes more affordable.  For many MBEs, with thin margins ...

Impact on Black and minority firms of the September 2025 PCE price index. (Released on December 5, 2025)

The BEA’s December 5 2025 release reports the following for September: Personal income rose 0.4% vs August; disposable personal income (after taxes) rose 0.3%.  Consumers spent more: current-dollar personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.3%. But “real” PCE (adjusted for inflation) was essentially flat. The PCE Price Index — the broad inflation gauge for consumer goods and services — increased 0.3% month-over-month . On a 12-month basis, the PCE Price Index rose 2.8% .  Excluding volatile food and energy categories (the “core” measure), prices also rose 0.2% month-over-month and about 2.8% year-over-year.  In short: while incomes and nominal spending ticked up, inflation remains noticeable — pushing up costs for households and consumers. Inflation + Income: What That Means for Black & Minority-Owned Firms Because inflation directly affects the cost of goods, inputs, and consumers’ purchasing power, the rising PCE index has important imp...

November 2025 (September data) Producer Price Index (PPI): Implications for Black and Minority Firms

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the selling prices that domestic producers receive for their output. According to the most recent release from the BLS, the PPI for “final demand” increased by 0.3 percent in September 2025 (seasonally adjusted). On a 12-month basis, it rose 2.7 percent . For goods alone (final demand goods), the increase was 0.9 percent for the month, largely driven by increases in goods such as gasoline (11.8 percent) and energy (3.5 percent). Services prices (final demand services) in that month were unchanged. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) Why should a minority-business owner care? Because PPI signals upstream cost pressures in the economy. Businesses that purchase inputs — raw materials, intermediate goods, energy, transportation — may face rising costs. And smaller or minority entrepreneurs often have less pricing power, smaller margins, less buffer to absorb cost increases. Key Implications for Black & Min...

The November 2025 Employment Situation Summary for Black and Minority Firms

The Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) “Employment Situation” report found that the overall U.S. unemployment rate held at  4.4 % in September, 2025 , with about 7.6 million people unemployed. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) Disaggregated by race, the report shows: Black workers: 7.5 % unemployment, with the rate for Black women growing from 6.7% in August to 7.5% in September. Hispanic workers: 5.5 % unemployment. White workers: 3.8 % unemployment. These gaps matter for minority business enterprises (MBEs), because labor market conditions for minority workers affect both the supply side (availability of talent, wage pressures) and demand side (consumer spending power, business formation). What this means for Black & minority‐owned firms A 7.5 % unemployment rate for Black workers implies that a larger share of the workforce faces unemployment, which may constrain firms in sourcing qualified staff, or create labor cost pressures if fewer skilled candidates are avai...