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July 2025 PPI: A Structural Cost Surge Deepens Burden on Black Businesses

  July 2025 Producer Price Index Summary Analysis The Producer Price Index (PPI) for Final Demand jumped 0.9% in July , marking the largest single-month increase since mid-2022. On a year-over-year basis, PPI rose 3.3% , indicating sustained producer-side inflation. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) mirrored this climb with a +0.6% monthly and +2.8% annual gain—the steepest in over three years. The spike was driven by final demand services (+1.1%) —along with price pressures in machinery wholesaling (+3.8%) , transportation, and accommodations. Final demand goods increased by 0.7% , largely due to surging food prices—particularly fresh and dry vegetables (+38.9%), meats, diesel, jet fuel, and eggs. Structural Cost Shift: What It Means for Minority-Owned Businesses A structural cost shift occurs when inflation disproportionately rises in essential sectors disproportionately impacting marginalized groups—while headline inflation may appea...
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July 2025 CPI: Inflation Burden on Black and Minority-Owned Businesses

  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July , keeping the annual inflation rate at 2.7% . Core inflation—excluding food and energy—remained elevated at 3.1% , the highest since February 2025. To many Black and minority-owned businesses , the numbers hide a troubling reality: inflation is shifting to the essentials, creating what economists call a structural cost shift —and that shift is hitting communities of color hardest. What is a Structural Cost Shift? A structural cost shift occurs when prices in essential categories rise faster than the overall inflation rate, while other goods remain flat or fall. This makes the headline CPI appear modest, even as the cost of living and doing business increases sharply for those who rely most on these essentials. For minority households and firms, the essentials are: Housing & rent Utilities & energy Food & groceries Transportation Healthcare When these categorie...

Black Unemployment in July 2025: Job Losses Continue

The latest July 2025 unemployment data confirms what we forecast: Black unemployment increased sharply, continuing the distressing trend we saw in June. According to figures compiled from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and our internal analysis, both Black men and women are facing ongoing employment instability—even as headline unemployment numbers may appear deceptively steady. 📉 Black Men: Unemployment Up, Participation Down Black male unemployment rose again—from 6.9% in June to 7.0% in July . This follows a sharp spike from 5.2% in May , representing one of the largest two-month increases outside of the COVID-19 crisis in over a decade. ( We forecast 7.1% .) 👩🏾 Black Women: Job Losses Pile Up For Black women, the story is one of quiet erosion . The unemployment rate dropped from 6.2% in May to 5.8% in June , and increased again to 6.3% in July . ( We forecast 6.4% .) ⚠️ The Real Crisis: Participation and Policy Blindness Black employment in July 2025 demonstrates a...

Zeldin Proposes to Rescind Endangerment Finding. Dylan Unruh, Dartmouth College.

On July 29, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the EPA proposal to  rescind the 2009 Endangerment Finding and end EPA regulation of greenhouse gas emissions. The Endangerment Finding allowed the Obama administration to mandate the EPA to stem vehicle emissions under Section 202(a)(1) of the Clean Air Act. With this scientific underpinning, the EPA issued many regulations and standards for the automaking industry to force cleaner practices and vehicles.  Despite strong initial resistance to the Endangerment Finding by both politicians and industry, there has been general acceptance that CO2 emissions are a threat to the climate and human survival. Rather than being rooted in intense lobbying from the automotive industry, Administrator Zeldin’s actions are painted as a cost-cutting measure. Climate change has become another battlefield in President Trump’s war on supposed government grift and excess. Zeldin’s latest proclamation would end a practice that has seen over $1 tr...

What Q2 2025 GDP Means for Black and Minority-Owned Businesses by Region and Industry

 U.S. Economy in Q2 2025: A Mixed Recovery Real GDP  grew at an  annualized rate of 3.0%  between April and June, following a  0.5% decline  in Q1, per the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( Bureau of Economic Analysis ). Much of this rebound reflected a sharp  drop in imports , while  consumer spending  ticked up moderately at about  1.4% , and underlying  final sales to private domestic purchasers  rose only  1.2% , the slowest pace since late 2022 ( Reuters ).  Why It Matters for Black & Minority‑Owned Firms Tariffs & Supply‑Chain Shocks The administration’s broad  tariff increases —including 25% duties on goods from Mexico and Canada and higher levies on Chinese exports—have disproportionately affected minority‑owned firms that depend on  affordable imported materials  ( impactinvesting. online ). Elevated import costs eat into slim margins and disrupt inventory sourcing...

The Question of AI Regulation – Rohan Sivakumar University of Chicago, Gabriel Philipp, Siena University

 At 10:00 am on 7/30/25, the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance, and Investment convened a panel of three industry experts to gain clarity on the best path forward in the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI).  All three witnesses provided an optimistic view of AI, particularly in its widespread integration and adoption by American industries. Apart from a few questions from Senator Jack Reed (D-RI) and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) regarding the impact of the current administration’s attitude towards climate change on the insurance industry, the hearing was largely apolitical.  Throughout the hearing, there was a significant emphasis on how AI can be developed safely and in ways that benefit the population over corporate enterprises. There was a reference to a speech given by Geoffrey Hinton , 2024 Nobel Physics Prize winner, warning about the future of AI development. He points out within his speech that AI has two ways it could be developed. It could b...

What to Expect from Friday’s Jobs Report: A Critical Moment for Black Workers

What to Expect from Friday’s Jobs Report: Trouble Ahead for Black Workers.  As we await the July 2025 employment report this Friday (8/1/2025), it’s worth asking: will the data show real recovery—or more statistical illusion? Last month, Black men saw a staggering 1.7 percentage-point jump in unemployment (from 5.2% to 6.9%), losing 181,000 jobs in a single month. Black women lost 84,000 jobs, bringing their total estimated job losses January to June 2025 - a stunning 412,000 jobs lost. 📉 Our Forecast for Friday: Black unemployment: Our forecast, based on labor force estimates and previous employment data trends, suggests that Black unemployment will increase sharply, continuing the distressing trend we saw in June. Black male unemployment: We expect July to bring more bad news, with the Black male unemployment rate rising to 7.1%. Black female employment: In July, we expect Black women’s unemployment rate rising to 6.4%. 📢 Join us Friday for full analysis once the data drop. 📹...