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The Number of Unemployed Black Women Fell by 113,000 Persons in March, 2026

The US unemployment rate was 4.3% in March, 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal government employment continued to decline. BLS reported that the number of unemployed Black women fell from 804,000 to 691,000, by 113,000 persons in March, 2026. Note that the reported industries with job gains do not match industries where Black women are employed. Overall payroll employment increasing by 178,000 would mean 63% of the new jobs went to Black women. This is unlikely and indicates a need for further review. In other words, we do not trust these initial numbers... Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for people who are Asian (3.7 percent) decreased in March. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), adult women (4.0 percent), teenagers (13.7 percent), and people who are White (3.6 percent), Black (7.1 percent), or Hispanic (4.8 percent) showed li...
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Public meeting at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act. Georgia Kogut, GWU.

On March 26, 2026, I attended a public meeting at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors on the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act. I expected something highly technical and removed from everyday realities, but the conversation returned to the same concerns.  The meeting was divided into four panels: supervision, banking regulations, innovation, and consumer protection. The discussion centered on two themes: inconsistency in supervision and the pressure placed on community banks.  Panelists came from different institutions, but their concerns overlapped. The first panel on bank supervision made it clear that the issue is not a lack of rules, but how unevenly those rules are applied. Several speakers highlighted the issue of weak communication between regulators and banks, noting that expectations shift depending on the examiner or agency involved, which creates unpredictability that makes the system more difficult to navigate.  Instead of operating wit...
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At POLITICO’s Economy Summit. Amza Togore (Trinity College).

At POLITICO’s Economy Summit on March 25, 2026, the conversation around trade captured something bigger than tariffs alone: the sense that economic policy is now inseparable from political struggle.  The summit included a trade panel, “What’s Next for Trump’s Tariffs?,” with Greta Peisch, Everett Eissenstat, and Eugene Laney, along with a separate conversation with Peter Navarro.  That lineup mattered. It signaled that trade is no longer being discussed only as a technical issue for economists or lawyers but as a live political battleground involving executive power, business strategy, and the price Americans pay for everyday life.  What makes this moment especially important is that it comes after a major legal shock. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling that Congress, not the president, holds the authority to impose tariffs of that scope.  But...
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What the PPI Report Is Really Telling Us. Amza Togore (Trinity College).

The latest Producer Price Index (PPI) release did not just come in elevated—it came in decisively hot. A 0.7% monthly increase, following 0.5% in January, is a pattern. And when you annualize the recent momentum, you are looking at 4–5%  annualized inflation pressure. Remember, PPI is not a prediction. It is a diagnostic tool. It tells us where inflation stress is forming inside the economy—before it becomes visible to consumers. And right now, that stress is building quietly but broadly. Goods prices are reaccelerating. Service costs are not cooling. Food costs moved higher. That combination matters more than the level of inflation. It is the distribution and direction that is important. We have now moved from: 0.4% → 0.5% → 0.7% Can We Use This to Predict Inflation? Yes — But Carefully If we take recent monthly PPI data and run a simple projection: [(1-mDec)(1-mJan)(1-mFeb)]**4 - 1] We get annualized inflation from 4 to 5 %. This is a meaningful, but PPI does not translate cleanl...
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Saalex Event at the Capital One Arena.Riley McGlynn, Sienna University.

Saalex Event at the Capital One Arena. Left to right, Le Nhu Ngoc Tran, Whitman College, Ramal Moreland, JP Morgan, Don Cravins, CEO, NMSDC, Riley McGlynn, Sienna University, Amza Togore, Trinity College, Georgia Kogut, George Washington University On February 24th I attended an event that the interns at Creative Investment Research (Le Nhu Ngoc Tran, Whitman College, Riley McGlynn, Sienna University, Amza Togore, Trinity College, Georgia Kogut, George Washington University) helped put together. The event was hosted by Saalex Corporation at Capital One Arena during the Georgetown vs. Marquette basketball game. In attendance were individuals from different companies, including Don Cravins, President of the National Minority Supplier Development Council (NMSDC), and Shannon Smith, Vice President of SAALEX.  Coordinating and designing this event was an important learning experience for us, as communication and collaboration were huge parts of the reason this event was so suc...
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Slowing U.S. Growth and the Outlook for Black and Minority-Owned Firms

  Implications of the BEA GDP Second Estimate for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 The latest GDP release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirms what many businesses already felt on the ground: economic momentum slowed significantly at the end of 2025. For Black- and minority-owned businesses (MBEs), this slowdown carries important implications for revenue, hiring, financing, and regional economic opportunity. Real GDP growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared with earlier in the year. The BEA reported that real GDP rose 1.4% at an annual rate in Q4 , down from 4.4% in the third quarter , with growth driven primarily by consumer spending and investment while declines in exports and government spending offset some of the gains.  Subsequent revisions and analysis suggest growth may have been even weaker, with estimates pointing to roughly 0.7% annualized growth , reflecting weaker consumer spending, falling exports, and reduced government activity....
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Feb. 2026 CPI - Implications for Black and Minority Firms

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows inflation rising 0.3% in February and 2.4% over the past year , with shelter, food, and energy the main contributors to price increases. ( Bureau of Labor Statistics ) This level of inflation appears high relative to the Fed's 2% inflation target. Further, the economic impact varies sharply depending on industry exposure and regional cost structures . For Black and minority-owned businesses (MBEs), these differences matter because minority firms are concentrated in specific sectors and urban regions that are particularly sensitive to inflation. 1. Industry Exposure of Black and Minority Firms Minority-owned businesses are disproportionately represented in a handful of industries. Key sectors include: Health care and social assistance Transportation and warehousing Accommodation and food services Retail trade Professional and technical services Construction ( Pew Research Center ) These industries account for a large share of minority ent...
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